45 Phelps Mill Close, Dursley, GL11 4GA

UPRN:10001168454Flat/Maisonette2 bedsBuilt 2003-2006

LeaseholdCouncil Tax: Band AEPC: C (75)

Data freshness:Planning· 4mo agoOwnership· 1mo agoEPC· 6mo agoRisk· 5mo agoConnectivity· 1mo agoSchools· 1mo agoAmenities· 2mo agoArea· Census 2021

HP Score

/ 100

Strong

Verdict

8 days ago

Verdict: INVESTIGATE, on a scale of Buy, Investigate, Avoid.
Strong fundamentals; flood risk not assessed

Evidence

20 of 21 sources

Sale Estimate

£160,000

£152k - £168kHigh

Estimate

£160k

Range

£152k – £168k

Rent Estimate (pcm)

£700

£650 - £750

Monthly

£700

Yield

5.42%

Verdict

Derived from HomePortfolio scores

45 Phelps Mill Close earns an INVESTIGATE rating with HP Score 76/100. Investment score 64/100 reflects moderate fundamentals. Crime intensity is low. Walkability is limited (65/100). Flood risk is not assessed: check the Environment Agency long-term flood map before offering. Tenure is leasehold. Every figure here comes from the live HomePortfolio API; anything it does not publish is left out.

Key SourcesEPC RegisterPortal listingsOfcom Connected NationsOfcom mobile coverageMarket estimates (third-party AVM)HM Land Registry sales matched to addressDefra strategic noise mapping, England Round 4 (Contains Defra data © Crown copyright and database right 2023-2024, Open Government Licence v3.0)Walk ScoreONS Census 2021Police.ukHM Land Registry company ownershipHM Land Registry covenantsHM Land Registry leasesHM Land Registry Price PaidPlanIt / council planning portalsOverture Maps PlacesOfsted / DfE GIAS

HP Score

76/ 100

Strong

Investment Score

64/ 100

Moderate

Crime Score

16/ 100

Moderate

Walkability

65/ 100

Moderate

Transit & Bike

Transit 11Bike 38

Walk Score, out of 100

Opportunity

Why this could be an opportunity

Low confidence1 independent sourceLead to verifyListing checked 3 Nov 2026

This rests largely on a single source. Treat the score as a prompt to investigate, not a conclusion.

Check before relying on this score: leasehold with no service charge disclosed - the stress test assumes GBP 0. It ranks after every home whose inputs are verified.

Valuation edge2.5/15
claims [AVM +3.1% (HIGH), sold-comps +12.4%, £/sqft +12.7%] → measured edge +0.50pp of the ask; on later-registered sales an AVM discount carried no edge and a sold-evidence gap at most +0.5pp
Market estimate used (HIGH confidence) · snapshot 12 Oct 2026
- valuation_snapshotsestimate for 10001168454· as of 12 Oct 2026
- property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 6 comps, dispersion 14.8%· as of 23 Oct 2026
Rental economics3.1/40
gross yield 5.4%; range width penalty ×0.91
- valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 700/mo (range 650-750)· as of 12 Oct 2026· verify before relying on this
Stress margin0/30
stressed cash flow -269/mo, -38% of rent (6.75% on a 75% loan; no service charge or ground rent disclosed); fails the stress - earns nothing; leasehold with no service charge disclosed - the stress assumes GBP 0
- underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advert· as of 3 Nov 2026· verify before relying on this
Seller motivationNot scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 40 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge
- portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_date· as of 3 Nov 2026
Risk & liquidity14.6/15
217 sales/12mo in area; valuation range width 10%
- property_intelligencetransactions_12mo

4 of 4 components scored. Ranks on gross yield, the stress margin, risk and disclosed facts. A pricing claim earns only its measured edge: today 0 for the market estimate and at most +0.5pp for sold evidence. The score itself is not yet checked against the outcomes of homes it scored.

Economics

What happens to your money

Price sensitivity

£116,000£178,000

The same scorer re-run at hypothetical asking prices, holding rent, comps and listing history constant. Not a prediction of what the seller would accept.

Your assumptions

Purchase price£155,000

At the asking price

Monthly rent£700/mo

Evidenced range £650-£750

Interest rate5.4%

Loan to value75%

Cash required: £48,400
Net cash flow: -£39/mo
Cash on cash: -1.0%
Score at this price: 20

After a 8% void allowance, 15% management and 10% maintenance. Lender coverage (rent ÷ interest): 1.34 - clears the usual 1.25 test. These are your assumptions, not evidence: only the pre-filled rent and price come from the record.

Evidence

Where every number comes from

valuation_snapshotsestimate for 10001168454Valuation edge · as of 12 Oct 2026
property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 6 comps, dispersion 14.8%Valuation edge · as of 23 Oct 2026
valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 700/mo (range 650-750)Rental economics · as of 12 Oct 2026 · verify before relying on this
underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advertStress margin · as of 3 Nov 2026 · verify before relying on this
portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_dateSeller motivation · as of 3 Nov 2026

Risks

What could kill this deal

Score confidence is low
largely a single source - treat the number as a prompt, not a conclusion
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
rent estimate 700/mo (range 650-750)
Stress margin needs verification before you rely on it
costs not disclosed by the advert

Plan

Before you offer

1. Get two written rental appraisals from local lettings agents.
The rent estimate rests on area-level evidence, not lettings on this street.
2. Treat the gap to the estimate as unproven - compare recent sold prices on the street yourself before pricing an offer around it.
On later completions, homes listed below their estimate sold at the same share of the asking price as the rest.
3. Commission a full structural survey, not a basic condition report.
The score prices market evidence, not the fabric of the building.

Every step above was generated from a specific gap or flag in the evidence - no generic advice, no invented tasks.

Valuation & Market

Sale Estimate£160,000

Rent Estimate (pcm)£700

Gross Yield5.42%

1y Growth+26.5%

3y Growth-3.0%

5y Growth+1.0%

10y Growth+4.1%

Last Sold Price£147,500 (2022-01-25)

View Market Details

Risk Overview

Flood RiskUnknown
SubsidenceModerate
RadonModerate
MiningUnknown
LandslideSignificant
Air QualityLow
NoiseLow

View Full Risk Report

Planning Activity

Recent Apps

0GL11 4GA

Approval Rate

-12mo

Development

low

S.26/1927/TPO
TPO/0421 - Reduction of Yew Tree - 2 metres selectively.
Pending
S.26/1777/HHOLD
Erection of a replacement single storey rear extension.
Pending
S.26/1767/FUL
Erection of a replacement self-build dwelling (Class C3) and associated works (retrospective).
Pending

View Planning Timeline

Ownership

Corporate Ownership74.6%
Overseas OwnershipNo
Lease Term Remaining999+ yrs
CovenantsRestrictive
Lease TypeLeasehold
Last Ownership Change2022-01-25
SourceLand Registry

View Ownership Details

Connectivity

Broadband (Standard)

17 Mbps

Mobile 4G/5G Coverage

EEThreeO2Vodafone

EV Charger

PTAL Rating

View Connectivity Map

Area Profile

Median EarningsLocal authority£33,495

Population Density2,496 /km²

Owner Occupied59%

Age Distribution

0-15 17%16-64 61%65+ 22%

View Area Profile

Schools Nearby

Rednock School
0.4 mi
Good
Peak Academy
0.4 mi
Area grades2025
Inspected after Ofsted withdrew the single overall grade.
Dursley Church of England Primary Academy
0.5 mi
Area grades2025
Inspected after Ofsted withdrew the single overall grade.
Cam Everlands Primary School
1.0 mi
-

2 of 13 nearby schools with published figures were oversubscribed in 2026 - demand, not a catchment.

View All Schools

Comparables

View All

19 Phelps Mill Close
-
£202k
-
36 Phelps Mill Close
-
£150k
-
30 Phelps Mill Close
-
£253k
-
32 Phelps Mill Close
-
£149k
-

Boundary data not available for this property

No registered title polygon, building footprint, or street match for this property yet.

Why: No HMLR INSPIRE / OSM footprint / OS Open USRN match for this UPRN

Source: HM Land Registry INSPIRE / OpenStreetMap / OS Open USRN