Birch Ridge, 45 Elmstead Lane, Chislehurst, BR7 5EG

UPRN:100020422809Detached House4 bedsBuilt 1950-1966

FreeholdCouncil Tax: Band GEPC: C (77)

Data freshness:Listing· freshPlanning· 4mo agoOwnership· freshEPC· 6mo agoRisk· 5mo agoCrime· freshConnectivity· 1mo agoSchools· 1mo agoAmenities· 2mo agoArea· Census 2021Council Tax· 1mo ago

Birch Ridge, 45 Elmstead Lane, Chislehurst, BR7 5EG

HP Score

/ 100

Strong

Verdict

yesterday

Verdict: INVESTIGATE, on a scale of Buy, Investigate, Avoid.
Strong fundamentals; flood risk not assessed

Evidence

18 of 21 sources

Sale Estimate

£1,900,000

£1.80M - £2.00MHigh

Estimate

£1.90M

Range

£1.80M – £2.00M

Rent Estimate (pcm)

£6,900

£6k - £8k

Monthly

£6,900

Yield

4.14%

Verdict

Derived from HomePortfolio scores

Birch Ridge earns an INVESTIGATE rating with HP Score 79/100. Investment score 68/100 reflects moderate fundamentals. Crime intensity is very low. Walkability is limited (65/100). Flood risk is not assessed: check the Environment Agency long-term flood map before offering. Tenure is freehold. Every figure here comes from the live HomePortfolio API; anything it does not publish is left out.

Key SourcesEPC RegisterPortal listingsOfcom Connected NationsOfcom mobile coverageMarket estimates (third-party AVM)HM Land Registry sales matched to addressDefra strategic noise mapping, England Round 4 (Contains Defra data © Crown copyright and database right 2023-2024, Open Government Licence v3.0)Walk ScoreONS Census 2021Police.ukHM Land Registry covenantsHM Land Registry Price PaidPlanIt / council planning portalsOverture Maps PlacesOfsted / DfE GIAS

HP Score

79/ 100

Strong

Investment Score

68/ 100

Moderate

Crime Score

14/ 100

Low

Walkability

65/ 100

Moderate

Transit & Bike

Transit 23Bike 46

Walk Score, out of 100

Opportunity

Why this could be an opportunity

Low confidence1 independent sourceListing checked 10 Nov 2026

This rests largely on a single source. Treat the score as a prompt to investigate, not a conclusion.

Valuation edge2.5/15
claims [AVM -5.3% (HIGH), sold-comps +20.4%, £/sqft +20.4%] → measured edge +0.50pp of the ask; on later-registered sales an AVM discount carried no edge and a sold-evidence gap at most +0.5pp
Market estimate used (HIGH confidence) · snapshot 12 Oct 2026
- valuation_snapshotsestimate for 100020422809· as of 12 Oct 2026
- property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 12 comps, dispersion 19.5%· as of 26 Oct 2026
Rental economics0/40
gross yield 4.1%; range width penalty ×0.78
- valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 6900/mo (range 6200-7650)· as of 12 Oct 2026· verify before relying on this
Stress margin0/30
stressed cash flow -3,496/mo, -51% of rent (6.75% on a 75% loan; no service charge or ground rent disclosed); fails the stress - earns nothing
- underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advert· as of 10 Nov 2026
Seller motivationNot scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 66 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge
- portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_date· as of 10 Nov 2026
Risk & liquidity14.6/15
183 sales/12mo in area; valuation range width 10%
- property_intelligencetransactions_12mo

4 of 4 components scored. Ranks on gross yield, the stress margin, risk and disclosed facts. A pricing claim earns only its measured edge: today 0 for the market estimate and at most +0.5pp for sold evidence. The score itself is not yet checked against the outcomes of homes it scored.

Economics

What happens to your money

Price sensitivity

£1,500,000£2,000,000

The same scorer re-run at hypothetical asking prices, holding rent, comps and listing history constant. Not a prediction of what the seller would accept.

Your assumptions

Purchase price£2,000,000

At the asking price

Monthly rent£6,900/mo

Evidenced range £6,200-£7,650

Interest rate5.4%

Loan to value75%

Cash required: £755,050
Net cash flow: -£1,973/mo
Cash on cash: -3.1%
Score at this price: 17

After a 8% void allowance, 15% management and 10% maintenance. Lender coverage (rent ÷ interest): 1.02 - below the usual 1.25 test. These are your assumptions, not evidence: only the pre-filled rent and price come from the record.

Evidence

Where every number comes from

valuation_snapshotsestimate for 100020422809Valuation edge · as of 12 Oct 2026
property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 12 comps, dispersion 19.5%Valuation edge · as of 26 Oct 2026
valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 6900/mo (range 6200-7650)Rental economics · as of 12 Oct 2026 · verify before relying on this
underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advertStress margin · as of 10 Nov 2026
portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_dateSeller motivation · as of 10 Nov 2026

Risks

What could kill this deal

Score confidence is low
largely a single source - treat the number as a prompt, not a conclusion
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
rent estimate 6900/mo (range 6200-7650)
Seller motivation could not be scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 66 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge

Property risk deep-dive →

Plan

Before you offer

1. Get two written rental appraisals from local lettings agents.
The rent estimate rests on area-level evidence, not lettings on this street.
2. Treat the gap to the estimate as unproven - compare recent sold prices on the street yourself before pricing an offer around it.
On later completions, homes listed below their estimate sold at the same share of the asking price as the rest.
3. Commission a full structural survey, not a basic condition report.
The score prices market evidence, not the fabric of the building.

Every step above was generated from a specific gap or flag in the evidence - no generic advice, no invented tasks.

Valuation & Market

Sale Estimate£1,900,000

Rent Estimate (pcm)£6,900

Gross Yield4.14%

1y Growth-

3y Growth+2.0%

5y Growth+1.0%

10y Growth+2.2%

Last Sold Price£930,000 (2017-07-28)

View Market Details

Risk Overview

Flood RiskUnknown
SubsidenceSignificant
RadonLow
MiningSignificant
LandslideModerate
Air QualityLow
NoiseModerate

View Full Risk Report

Planning Activity

Recent Apps

0BR7 5EG

Approval Rate

-12mo

Development

low

26/04354/TCA
Ash – pollard (remove crown).
Pending
26/04276/HPA
Demolition of existing garage and side canopy. Construction of a single storey side/rear extension, rear dormer. Replacement external canopy/gates and elevational alterations to include window alterations/replacements.
Pending
26/04297/HPA
Demolition of rear conservatory and chimney and front garage, construction of single storey rear extension and single storey side extensions, single storey front extension,hipped to gable loft conversion including rear roof dormer with Juliet balcony, front entrance ramp and elevational alterations
Pending

View Planning Timeline

Ownership

Corporate Ownership68%
Overseas OwnershipNo
Lease Term Remaining-
CovenantsRestrictive
Lease TypeFreehold
Last Ownership Change2017-07-28
SourceLand Registry

View Ownership Details

Connectivity

Broadband (Standard)

29 Mbps

Mobile 4G/5G Coverage

EEThreeO2Vodafone

EV Charger

PTAL Rating

View Connectivity Map

Area Profile

Median EarningsLocal authority£43,981

Population Density2,279 /km²

Owner Occupied81%

Age Distribution

0-15 21%16-64 60%65+ 19%

View Area Profile

Schools Nearby

Babington House School
0.2 mi
Inspected by ISI
Elmstead Wood Primary School
0.4 mi
Area grades2024
Inspected after Ofsted withdrew the single overall grade.
Bullers Wood School
0.7 mi
Good
Breaside Preparatory School
0.7 mi
Inspected by ISI

0 of 11 nearby schools with published figures were oversubscribed in 2026 - demand, not a catchment.

View All Schools

Comparables

View All

41 Elmstead Lane
-
£830k
-
22 Elmstead Lane
-
£1.10M
-
43 Elmstead Lane
-
£15k
-
16 Elmstead Lane
-
£900k
-

Boundary data not available for this property

No registered title polygon, building footprint, or street match for this property yet.

Why: No HMLR INSPIRE / OSM footprint / OS Open USRN match for this UPRN

Source: HM Land Registry INSPIRE / OpenStreetMap / OS Open USRN