3 Carlton Close, Upminster, RM14 2YR

UPRN:100021404746Purpose Built Flat2 bedsBuilt 1950-1966

LeaseholdCouncil Tax: Band DEPC: E (50)

Data freshness:Listing· freshPlanning· 4mo agoOwnership· freshEPC· 6mo agoRisk· 5mo agoCrime· freshConnectivity· 1mo agoSchools· 1mo agoAmenities· 2mo agoArea· Census 2021Council Tax· 1mo ago

HP Score

/ 100

Mixed

Verdict

today

Verdict: INVESTIGATE, on a scale of Buy, Investigate, Avoid.
Mixed signals - investigate

Evidence

20 of 21 sources

Sale Estimate

£289,000

£274k - £303kHigh

Estimate

£289k

Range

£274k – £303k

Rent Estimate (pcm)

£1,050

£950 - £1k

Monthly

£1,050

Yield

4.85%

Verdict

Derived from HomePortfolio scores

3 Carlton Close earns an INVESTIGATE rating with HP Score 72/100. Investment score 63/100 reflects moderate fundamentals. Crime intensity is moderate. Walkability is excellent (88/100). Flood risk is not assessed: check the Environment Agency long-term flood map before offering. Tenure is leasehold. Every figure here comes from the live HomePortfolio API; anything it does not publish is left out.

Key SourcesEPC RegisterPortal listingsOfcom Connected NationsOfcom mobile coverageMarket estimates (third-party AVM)HM Land Registry sales matched to addressDefra strategic noise mapping, England Round 4 (Contains Defra data © Crown copyright and database right 2023-2024, Open Government Licence v3.0)Walk ScoreONS Census 2021Police.ukHM Land Registry company ownershipHM Land Registry covenantsHM Land Registry leasesHM Land Registry Price PaidPlanIt / council planning portalsOverture Maps PlacesOfsted / DfE GIAS

HP Score

72/ 100

Mixed

Investment Score

63/ 100

Moderate

Crime Score

56/ 100

Elevated

Walkability

88/ 100

Excellent

Transit & Bike

Transit 50Bike 60

Walk Score, out of 100

Opportunity

Why this could be an opportunity

Low confidence0 independent sourcesLead to verifyListing checked 12 Nov 2026

This rests largely on a single source. Treat the score as a prompt to investigate, not a conclusion.

Check before relying on this score: leasehold with no service charge disclosed - the stress test assumes GBP 0. It ranks after every home whose inputs are verified.

Valuation edge0/15
claims [AVM +10.0% (HIGH), sold-comps -7.0%, £/sqft -6.8%] → measured edge +0.00pp of the ask; on later-registered sales an AVM discount carried no edge and a sold-evidence gap at most +0.5pp
Market estimate used (HIGH confidence) · snapshot 14 Nov 2026
- valuation_snapshotsestimate for 100021404746· as of 14 Nov 2026
- property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 8 comps, dispersion 14.9%· as of 31 Oct 2026
Rental economics0/40
gross yield 4.8%; range width penalty ×0.72
- valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 1050/mo (range 950-1200)· as of 14 Nov 2026· verify before relying on this
Stress margin0/30
stressed cash flow -455/mo, -43% of rent (6.75% on a 75% loan; no service charge or ground rent disclosed); fails the stress - earns nothing; leasehold with no service charge disclosed - the stress assumes GBP 0
- underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advert· as of 12 Nov 2026· verify before relying on this
Seller motivationNot scored
context, not scored: 2 price cut(s), 79 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge
- portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_date· as of 12 Nov 2026
Risk & liquidity14.6/15
254 sales/12mo in area; valuation range width 10%
- property_intelligencetransactions_12mo

4 of 4 components scored. Ranks on gross yield, the stress margin, risk and disclosed facts. A pricing claim earns only its measured edge: today 0 for the market estimate and at most +0.5pp for sold evidence. The score itself is not yet checked against the outcomes of homes it scored.

Economics

What happens to your money

Price sensitivity

£195,000£299,000

The same scorer re-run at hypothetical asking prices, holding rent, comps and listing history constant. Not a prediction of what the seller would accept.

Your assumptions

Purchase price£260,000

At the asking price

Monthly rent£1,050/mo

Evidenced range £950-£1,200

Interest rate5.4%

Loan to value75%

Cash required: £82,300
Net cash flow: -£151/mo
Cash on cash: -2.2%
Score at this price: 15

After a 8% void allowance, 15% management and 10% maintenance. Lender coverage (rent ÷ interest): 1.20 - below the usual 1.25 test. These are your assumptions, not evidence: only the pre-filled rent and price come from the record.

Evidence

Where every number comes from

valuation_snapshotsestimate for 100021404746Valuation edge · as of 14 Nov 2026
property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 8 comps, dispersion 14.9%Valuation edge · as of 31 Oct 2026
valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 1050/mo (range 950-1200)Rental economics · as of 14 Nov 2026 · verify before relying on this
underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advertStress margin · as of 12 Nov 2026 · verify before relying on this
portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_dateSeller motivation · as of 12 Nov 2026

Risks

What could kill this deal

Score confidence is low
largely a single source - treat the number as a prompt, not a conclusion
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
rent estimate 1050/mo (range 950-1200)
Stress margin needs verification before you rely on it
costs not disclosed by the advert

Plan

Before you offer

1. Get two written rental appraisals from local lettings agents.
The rent estimate rests on area-level evidence, not lettings on this street.
2. Ask the agent why the price was reduced and whether a previous sale fell through.
2 price cut(s) recorded on the listing history.
3. Treat the gap to the estimate as unproven - compare recent sold prices on the street yourself before pricing an offer around it.
On later completions, homes listed below their estimate sold at the same share of the asking price as the rest.
4. Commission a full structural survey, not a basic condition report.
The score prices market evidence, not the fabric of the building.

Valuation & Market

Sale Estimate£289,000

Rent Estimate (pcm)£1,050

Gross Yield4.85%

1y Growth-14.3%

3y Growth-1.5%

5y Growth-0.4%

10y Growth+1.3%

Last Sold Price£262,000 (2015-06-26)

View Market Details

Risk Overview

Flood RiskUnknown
SubsidenceSignificant
RadonLow
MiningUnknown
LandslideLow
Air QualityLow
NoiseModerate

View Full Risk Report

Planning Activity

Recent Apps

1RM14 2YR

Approval Rate

-12mo

Development

low

N0038.26
Application for a non-material amendment to planning permission ref: P0790.24 dated 31/07/2024 to allow for garage to be altered to a study and replace garage door with a window and rendered blockwork to match existing. (Two storey side extension and single storey rear extension).
Pending
P1239.26
Single storey rear extension
Pending
P1238.26
Erection of a single-storey detached outbuilding for use as a home gym, fitness suite and incidental leisure space
Pending

View Planning Timeline

Ownership

Corporate Ownership59.8%
Overseas OwnershipNo
Lease Term Remaining86 yrs
CovenantsRestrictive
Lease TypeLeasehold
Last Ownership Change2015-06-26
SourceLand Registry

View Ownership Details

Connectivity

Broadband (Standard)

15 Mbps

Mobile 4G/5G Coverage

EEThreeO2Vodafone

EV Charger

PTAL Rating

View Connectivity Map

Area Profile

Median EarningsLocal authority£40,726

Population Density3,766 /km²

Owner Occupied64%

Age Distribution

0-15 18%16-64 62%65+ 20%

View Area Profile

Schools Nearby

Sacred Heart of Mary Girls' School
0.1 mi
Area grades2024
Inspected after Ofsted withdrew the single overall grade.
St Joseph's Catholic Primary School
0.3 mi
Good
Routes4Life Limited
0.3 mi
-
Upminster Infant School
0.4 mi
Good

6 of 11 nearby schools with published figures were oversubscribed in 2026 - demand, not a catchment.

View All Schools

Comparables

View All

40 Carlton Close
-
£240k
-
44 Carlton Close
-
£265k
-
38 Carlton Close
-
£300k
-
37 Carlton Close
-
£265k
-

Boundary data not available for this property

No registered title polygon, building footprint, or street match for this property yet.

Why: No HMLR INSPIRE / OSM footprint / OS Open USRN match for this UPRN

Source: HM Land Registry INSPIRE / OpenStreetMap / OS Open USRN