Cwrt Cerryg, Church Road, Lower Machen, Newport, NP10 8GW

UPRN:10002148485Detached House4 bedsBuilt before 1900

FreeholdCouncil Tax: Band GEPC: E (53)

Data freshness:Listing· freshPrice Paid· freshPlanning· 4mo agoEPC· 6mo agoRisk· 2y agoConnectivity· 1mo agoSchools· 1mo agoAmenities· 2mo agoArea· Census 2021

Cwrt Cerryg, Church Road, Lower Machen, Newport, NP10 8GW

HP Score

/ 100

Strong

Verdict

4 days ago

Verdict: INVESTIGATE, on a scale of Buy, Investigate, Avoid.
Strong fundamentals; flood risk not assessed

Evidence

16 of 21 sources

Sale Estimate

£916,000

£870k - £962kHigh

Estimate

£916k

Range

£870k – £962k

Rent Estimate (pcm)

£3,700

£3k - £4k

Monthly

£3,700

Yield

5.22%

Verdict

Derived from HomePortfolio scores

Cwrt Cerryg earns an INVESTIGATE rating with HP Score 78/100. Investment score 67/100 reflects moderate fundamentals. Crime intensity is low. Flood risk is not assessed: check the Environment Agency long-term flood map before offering. Tenure is freehold. Every figure here comes from the live HomePortfolio API; anything it does not publish is left out.

Key SourcesEPC RegisterPortal listingsOfcom Connected NationsOfcom mobile coverageMarket estimates (third-party AVM)HM Land Registry sales matched to addressONS Census 2021Police.ukHM Land Registry company ownershipHM Land Registry covenantsHM Land Registry Price PaidPlanIt / council planning portalsOverture Maps PlacesOfsted / DfE GIAS

HP Score

78/ 100

Strong

Investment Score

67/ 100

Moderate

Crime Score

16/ 100

Moderate

Walkability

No data

Transit & Bike

No data

Opportunity

Why this could be an opportunity

Low confidence0 independent sourcesListing checked 2 Nov 2026

This rests largely on a single source. Treat the score as a prompt to investigate, not a conclusion.

Valuation edge0/15
claims [AVM +7.2% (HIGH)] → measured edge +0.00pp of the ask; on later-registered sales an AVM discount carried no edge and a sold-evidence gap at most +0.5pp
Market estimate used (HIGH confidence) · snapshot 13 Oct 2026
- valuation_snapshotsestimate for 10002148485· as of 13 Oct 2026
Rental economics1.4/40
gross yield 5.2%; range width penalty ×0.79
- valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 3700/mo (range 3300-4050)· as of 13 Oct 2026· verify before relying on this
Stress margin0/30
stressed cash flow -996/mo, -27% of rent (6.75% on a 75% loan; no service charge or ground rent disclosed); fails the stress - earns nothing
- underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advert· as of 2 Nov 2026
Seller motivationNot scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 38 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge
- portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_date· as of 2 Nov 2026
Risk & liquidity14.6/15
280 sales/12mo in area; valuation range width 10%
- property_intelligencetransactions_12mo

4 of 4 components scored. Ranks on gross yield, the stress margin, risk and disclosed facts. A pricing claim earns only its measured edge: today 0 for the market estimate and at most +0.5pp for sold evidence. The score itself is not yet checked against the outcomes of homes it scored.

Economics

What happens to your money

Price sensitivity

£637,500£977,500

The same scorer re-run at hypothetical asking prices, holding rent, comps and listing history constant. Not a prediction of what the seller would accept.

Your assumptions

Purchase price£850,000

At the asking price

Monthly rent£3,700/mo

Evidenced range £3,300-£4,050

Interest rate5.4%

Loan to value75%

Cash required: £288,800
Net cash flow: -£307/mo
Cash on cash: -1.3%
Score at this price: 16

After a 8% void allowance, 15% management and 10% maintenance. Lender coverage (rent ÷ interest): 1.29 - clears the usual 1.25 test. These are your assumptions, not evidence: only the pre-filled rent and price come from the record.

Evidence

Where every number comes from

valuation_snapshotsestimate for 10002148485Valuation edge · as of 13 Oct 2026
valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 3700/mo (range 3300-4050)Rental economics · as of 13 Oct 2026 · verify before relying on this
underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advertStress margin · as of 2 Nov 2026
portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_dateSeller motivation · as of 2 Nov 2026
property_intelligencetransactions_12moRisk & liquidity

Sold comparables in depth

Risks

What could kill this deal

Score confidence is low
largely a single source - treat the number as a prompt, not a conclusion
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
rent estimate 3700/mo (range 3300-4050)
Seller motivation could not be scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 38 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge

Property risk deep-dive →

Plan

Before you offer

1. Get two written rental appraisals from local lettings agents.
The rent estimate rests on area-level evidence, not lettings on this street.
2. Treat the gap to the estimate as unproven - compare recent sold prices on the street yourself before pricing an offer around it.
On later completions, homes listed below their estimate sold at the same share of the asking price as the rest.
3. Commission a full structural survey, not a basic condition report.
The score prices market evidence, not the fabric of the building.

Every step above was generated from a specific gap or flag in the evidence - no generic advice, no invented tasks.

Valuation & Market

Sale Estimate£916,000

Rent Estimate (pcm)£3,700

Gross Yield5.22%

1y Growth-

3y Growth+3.1%

5y Growth+3.5%

10y Growth+4.0%

Last Sold Price£685,000 (2018-02-21)

View Market Details

Risk Overview

Flood RiskUnknown
SubsidenceLow
RadonModerate
MiningSignificant
LandslideModerate
Air QualityLow
NoiseWithheld

View Full Risk Report

Planning Activity

Recent Apps

0NP10 8GW

Approval Rate

-12mo

Development

low

26/0552
WORKS TO 1NO. ACER TREE (PRUNING) PROTECTED BY THE LOWER MACHEN CONSERVATION AREA
Approved
25/0673
PRIOR NOTIFICATION OF AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT
Rejected
25/0512
PARTIAL DISCHARGE OF CONDITION 3 (BIODIVERSITY ENHANCEMENT SCHEME) OF 23/0296 CONVERSION OF AN EXISTING DOUBLE GARAGE (INCLUDING ROOF SPACE) INTO AN ANNEX/HABITABLE SPACE WITH SLEEPING ,WASHING AND COOKING FACILITIES
Approved

View Planning Timeline