38 Otford Crescent, London, SE4 1RD

UPRN:100021993065End Terrace House3 bedsBuilt 1930-1949

FreeholdCouncil Tax: Band DEPC: D (59)

Data freshness:Listing· freshPlanning· 3mo agoOwnership· freshEPC· 6mo agoRisk· 5mo agoConnectivity· 1mo agoSchools· freshAmenities· 2mo agoArea· Census 2021Council Tax· 6mo ago

HP Score

/ 100

Strong

Verdict

4 days ago

Verdict: INVESTIGATE, on a scale of Buy, Investigate, Avoid.
Strong fundamentals; flood risk not assessed

Evidence

18 of 21 sources

Sale Estimate

£697,000

£663k - £732kHigh

Estimate

£697k

Range

£663k – £732k

Rent Estimate (pcm)

£3,150

£3k - £3k

Monthly

£3,150

Yield

5.52%

Verdict

Derived from HomePortfolio scores

38 Otford Crescent earns an INVESTIGATE rating with HP Score 81/100. Investment score 68/100 reflects moderate fundamentals. Crime intensity is low. Walkability is good (82/100). Flood risk is not assessed: check the Environment Agency long-term flood map before offering. Tenure is freehold. Every figure here comes from the live HomePortfolio API; anything it does not publish is left out.

Key SourcesEPC RegisterPortal listingsOfcom Connected NationsOfcom mobile coverageMarket estimates (third-party AVM)Defra strategic noise mapping, England Round 4 (Contains Defra data © Crown copyright and database right 2023-2024, Open Government Licence v3.0)Walk ScoreONS Census 2021Police.ukHM Land Registry company ownershipHM Land Registry covenantsHM Land Registry Price PaidPlanIt / council planning portalsOverture Maps PlacesOfsted / DfE GIAS

HP Score

81/ 100

Strong

Investment Score

68/ 100

Moderate

Crime Score

21/ 100

Moderate

Walkability

82/ 100

High

Transit & Bike

Transit 49Bike 73

Walk Score, out of 100

Opportunity

Why this could be an opportunity

Low confidence0 independent sourcesListing checked 5 Nov 2026

This rests largely on a single source. Treat the score as a prompt to investigate, not a conclusion.

Valuation edge0/15
claims [AVM +1.7% (HIGH), sold-comps -15.7%, £/sqft -15.8%] → measured edge +0.00pp of the ask; on later-registered sales an AVM discount carried no edge and a sold-evidence gap at most +0.5pp
Market estimate used (HIGH confidence) · snapshot 13 Oct 2026
- valuation_snapshotsestimate for 100021993065· as of 13 Oct 2026
- property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 12 comps, dispersion 10.5%· as of 30 Oct 2026
Rental economics3.7/40
gross yield 5.5%; range width penalty ×0.88
- valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 3150/mo (range 2900-3400)· as of 13 Oct 2026· verify before relying on this
Stress margin0/30
stressed cash flow -705/mo, -22% of rent (6.75% on a 75% loan; no service charge or ground rent disclosed); fails the stress - earns nothing
- underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advert· as of 5 Nov 2026
Seller motivationNot scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 75 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge
- portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_date· as of 5 Nov 2026
Risk & liquidity14.7/15
243 sales/12mo in area; valuation range width 10%
- property_intelligencetransactions_12mo

4 of 4 components scored. Ranks on gross yield, the stress margin, risk and disclosed facts. A pricing claim earns only its measured edge: today 0 for the market estimate and at most +0.5pp for sold evidence. The score itself is not yet checked against the outcomes of homes it scored.

Economics

What happens to your money

Price sensitivity

£514,000£787,500

The same scorer re-run at hypothetical asking prices, holding rent, comps and listing history constant. Not a prediction of what the seller would accept.

Your assumptions

Purchase price£685,000

At the asking price

Monthly rent£3,150/mo

Evidenced range £2,900-£3,400

Interest rate5.4%

Loan to value75%

Cash required: £231,050
Net cash flow: -£131/mo
Cash on cash: -0.7%
Score at this price: 18

After a 8% void allowance, 15% management and 10% maintenance. Lender coverage (rent ÷ interest): 1.36 - clears the usual 1.25 test. These are your assumptions, not evidence: only the pre-filled rent and price come from the record.

Evidence

Where every number comes from

valuation_snapshotsestimate for 100021993065Valuation edge · as of 13 Oct 2026
property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 12 comps, dispersion 10.5%Valuation edge · as of 30 Oct 2026
valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 3150/mo (range 2900-3400)Rental economics · as of 13 Oct 2026 · verify before relying on this
underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advertStress margin · as of 5 Nov 2026
portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_dateSeller motivation · as of 5 Nov 2026

Risks

What could kill this deal

Score confidence is low
largely a single source - treat the number as a prompt, not a conclusion
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
rent estimate 3150/mo (range 2900-3400)
Seller motivation could not be scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 75 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge

Property risk deep-dive →

Plan

Before you offer

1. Get two written rental appraisals from local lettings agents.
The rent estimate rests on area-level evidence, not lettings on this street.
2. Treat the gap to the estimate as unproven - compare recent sold prices on the street yourself before pricing an offer around it.
On later completions, homes listed below their estimate sold at the same share of the asking price as the rest.
3. Commission a full structural survey, not a basic condition report.
The score prices market evidence, not the fabric of the building.

Every step above was generated from a specific gap or flag in the evidence - no generic advice, no invented tasks.

Valuation & Market

Sale Estimate£697,000

Rent Estimate (pcm)£3,150

Gross Yield5.52%

1y Growth-

3y Growth+2.1%

5y Growth+0.4%

10y Growth+2.3%

Last Sold Price-

View Market Details

Risk Overview

Flood RiskUnknown
SubsidenceSignificant
RadonLow
MiningModerate
LandslideModerate
Air QualityLow
NoiseModerate

View Full Risk Report

Planning Activity

Recent Apps

1SE4 1RD

Approval Rate

100%12mo

Development

low

DC/26/145859
Construction of a single storey infill extension to the rear of 37 Darfield Road, SE4.
Pending
DC/26/145837
Application for a Lawful Development Certificate (proposed) submitted under Section 192 of the Town & Country Planning Act 1990 (as amended) and Classes B, C & G of Schedule 2, Part 1 of the Town and Country Planning (General Permitted Development) (England) Order 2015 (as amended) for a rear dormer extension, two front rooflights and the alteration of an existing chimney stack at 99 Crofton Park Road. SE4.
Pending
DC/26/145844
Construction of a single-storey side infill extension and boundary alterations at the rear of 27 Chudleigh Road SE4.
Pending

View Planning Timeline

Ownership

Corporate Ownership73.7%
Overseas OwnershipNo
Lease Term Remaining-
CovenantsRestrictive
Lease TypeFreehold
Last Ownership Change-
SourceLand Registry

View Ownership Details

Connectivity

Broadband (Standard)

8 Mbps

Mobile 4G/5G Coverage

EEThreeO2Vodafone

EV Charger

PTAL Rating

View Connectivity Map

Area Profile

Median EarningsLocal authority£39,505

Population Density-

Owner Occupied71%

Age Distribution

0-15 21%16-64 67%65+ 12%

View Area Profile

Schools Nearby

Stillness Infant School
0.2 mi
Report card2026
Ofsted no longer awards a single overall grade.
Stillness Junior School
0.2 mi
Good
Beecroft Garden Primary
0.3 mi
Area grades2024
Inspected after Ofsted withdrew the single overall grade.
Chelwood Nursery School
0.5 mi
Report card2026
Ofsted no longer awards a single overall grade.

4 of 10 nearby schools with published figures were oversubscribed in 2026 - demand, not a catchment.

View All Schools

Comparables

View All

15 Otford Crescent
-
£740k
-
33 Otford Crescent
-
£635k
-
7 Otford Crescent
-
£600k
-
12 Otford Crescent
-
£680k
-

Boundary data not available for this property

No registered title polygon, building footprint, or street match for this property yet.

Why: No HMLR INSPIRE / OSM footprint / OS Open USRN match for this UPRN

Source: HM Land Registry INSPIRE / OpenStreetMap / OS Open USRN