Elm Cottage, 1E Nursery Gardens, Chislehurst, BR7 5BW

UPRN:100022900752Terrace Property2 bedsBuilt 1991-1995

FreeholdCouncil Tax: Band EEPC: C (69)

Data freshness:Listing· freshPrice Paid· freshPlanning· 4mo agoEPC· 6mo agoRisk· 5mo agoConnectivity· 1mo agoAmenities· 1mo agoArea· Census 2021

Elm Cottage, 1E Nursery Gardens, Chislehurst, BR7 5BW

HP Score

/ 100

Strong

Verdict

2 days ago

Verdict: INVESTIGATE, on a scale of Buy, Investigate, Avoid.
Strong fundamentals; flood risk not assessed

Evidence

19 of 21 sources

Sale Estimate

£489,000

£464k - £513kHigh

Estimate

£489k

Range

£464k – £513k

Rent Estimate (pcm)

£1,700

£2k - £2k

Monthly

£1,700

Yield

4.53%

Verdict

Derived from HomePortfolio scores

Elm Cottage earns an INVESTIGATE rating with HP Score 79/100. Investment score 68/100 reflects moderate fundamentals. Crime intensity is low. Walkability is limited (68/100). Flood risk is not assessed: check the Environment Agency long-term flood map before offering. Tenure is freehold. Every figure here comes from the live HomePortfolio API; anything it does not publish is left out.

Key SourcesEPC RegisterPortal listingsOfcom Connected NationsOfcom mobile coverageMarket estimates (third-party AVM)HM Land Registry sales matched to addressDefra strategic noise mapping, England Round 4 (Contains Defra data © Crown copyright and database right 2023-2024, Open Government Licence v3.0)Walk ScoreONS Census 2021Police.ukHM Land Registry company ownershipHM Land Registry covenantsHM Land Registry Price PaidPlanIt / council planning portalsOverture Maps PlacesOfsted / DfE GIAS

HP Score

79/ 100

Strong

Investment Score

68/ 100

Moderate

Crime Score

17/ 100

Moderate

Walkability

68/ 100

Moderate

Transit & Bike

Transit 30Bike 44

Walk Score, out of 100

Opportunity

Why this could be an opportunity

Low confidence0 independent sourcesListing checked 2 Nov 2026

This rests largely on a single source. Treat the score as a prompt to investigate, not a conclusion.

Valuation edge0/15
claims [AVM +8.0% (HIGH), sold-comps -16.3%, £/sqft -16.2%] → measured edge +0.00pp of the ask; on later-registered sales an AVM discount carried no edge and a sold-evidence gap at most +0.5pp
Market estimate used (HIGH confidence) · snapshot 12 Oct 2026
- valuation_snapshotsestimate for 100022900752· as of 12 Oct 2026
- property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 6 comps, dispersion 14.2%· as of 19 Oct 2026
Rental economics0/40
gross yield 4.5%; range width penalty ×0.79
- valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 1700/mo (range 1550-1900)· as of 12 Oct 2026· verify before relying on this
Stress margin0/30
stressed cash flow -779/mo, -46% of rent (6.75% on a 75% loan; no service charge or ground rent disclosed); fails the stress - earns nothing
- underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advert· as of 2 Nov 2026
Seller motivationNot scored
context, not scored: 2 price cut(s), 191 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge
- portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_date· as of 2 Nov 2026
Risk & liquidity14.6/15
183 sales/12mo in area; valuation range width 10%
- property_intelligencetransactions_12mo

4 of 4 components scored. Ranks on gross yield, the stress margin, risk and disclosed facts. A pricing claim earns only its measured edge: today 0 for the market estimate and at most +0.5pp for sold evidence. The score itself is not yet checked against the outcomes of homes it scored.

Economics

What happens to your money

Price sensitivity

£337,500£517,500

The same scorer re-run at hypothetical asking prices, holding rent, comps and listing history constant. Not a prediction of what the seller would accept.

Your assumptions

Purchase price£450,000

At the asking price

Monthly rent£1,700/mo

Evidenced range £1,550-£1,900

Interest rate5.4%

Loan to value75%

Cash required: £148,800
Net cash flow: -£342/mo
Cash on cash: -2.8%
Score at this price: 15

After a 8% void allowance, 15% management and 10% maintenance. Lender coverage (rent ÷ interest): 1.12 - below the usual 1.25 test. These are your assumptions, not evidence: only the pre-filled rent and price come from the record.

Evidence

Where every number comes from

valuation_snapshotsestimate for 100022900752Valuation edge · as of 12 Oct 2026
property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 6 comps, dispersion 14.2%Valuation edge · as of 19 Oct 2026
valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 1700/mo (range 1550-1900)Rental economics · as of 12 Oct 2026 · verify before relying on this
underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advertStress margin · as of 2 Nov 2026
portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_dateSeller motivation · as of 2 Nov 2026

Risks

What could kill this deal

Score confidence is low
largely a single source - treat the number as a prompt, not a conclusion
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
rent estimate 1700/mo (range 1550-1900)
Seller motivation could not be scored
context, not scored: 2 price cut(s), 191 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge

Property risk deep-dive →

Plan

Before you offer

1. Get two written rental appraisals from local lettings agents.
The rent estimate rests on area-level evidence, not lettings on this street.
2. Ask the agent why the price was reduced and whether a previous sale fell through.
2 price cut(s) recorded on the listing history.
3. Treat the gap to the estimate as unproven - compare recent sold prices on the street yourself before pricing an offer around it.
On later completions, homes listed below their estimate sold at the same share of the asking price as the rest.
4. Commission a full structural survey, not a basic condition report.
The score prices market evidence, not the fabric of the building.

Valuation & Market

Sale Estimate£489,000

Rent Estimate (pcm)£1,700

Gross Yield4.53%

1y Growth+6.1%

3y Growth+2.0%

5y Growth+1.0%

10y Growth+2.2%

Last Sold Price£490,000 (2024-07-31)

View Market Details

Risk Overview

Flood RiskUnknown
SubsidenceSignificant
RadonLow
MiningModerate
LandslideLow
Air QualityLow
NoiseLow

View Full Risk Report

Planning Activity

Recent Apps

0BR7 5BW

Approval Rate

-12mo

Development

low

26/04124/HPA
Demolition of existing conservatory and construction of single storey rear extension with rear steps.
Pending
25/04901/CON
Details submitted to comply with the requirements of the following conditions relating to planning permission 25/04901/HPA: Condition 4 - Arboricultural Method Statement
Pending
26/04052/LBC
Internal alterations and refurbishment of the ground floor of the existing public house, including repair and redecoration of existing finishes, new timber wall panelling and concealed doors, new sliding/stacking partition to the function room, and associated bespoke joinery and making good LISTED BUILDING CONSENT
Pending

View Planning Timeline

Ownership

Corporate Ownership68.2%
Overseas OwnershipNo
Lease Term Remaining-
CovenantsRestrictive
Lease TypeFreehold
Last Ownership Change2024-07-31
SourceLand Registry

View Ownership Details

Connectivity

Broadband (Standard)

10 Mbps

Mobile 4G/5G Coverage

EEThreeO2Vodafone

EV Charger

PTAL Rating

View Connectivity Map

Area Profile

Median EarningsLocal authority£43,981

Population Density-

Owner Occupied84%

Age Distribution

0-15 17%16-64 55%65+ 28%

View Area Profile

Schools Nearby

Red Hill Primary School
0.2 mi
-
Orion Mead Road
0.3 mi
Good
Edgebury Primary School
0.6 mi
Good
St Nicholas Church of England Primary
0.6 mi
Area grades2024
Inspected after Ofsted withdrew the single overall grade.

1 of 11 nearby schools with published figures were oversubscribed in 2026 - demand, not a catchment.

View All Schools

Comparables

View All

13 Nursery Gardens
-
£450k
-
1E Nursery Gardens
-
£490k
-
6 Nursery Gardens
-
£565k
-
1C Nursery Gardens
-
£435k
-

Boundary data not available for this property

No registered title polygon, building footprint, or street match for this property yet.

Why: No HMLR INSPIRE / OSM footprint / OS Open USRN match for this UPRN

Source: HM Land Registry INSPIRE / OpenStreetMap / OS Open USRN