5 Grays Cottages, Tomkyns Lane, Upminster, RM14 1TP

UPRN:100023215410Semi-Detached Bungalow2 bedsBuilt 1976-1982

FreeholdCouncil Tax: -EPC: C (69)

Data freshness:Price Paid· freshPlanning· 6mo agoEPC· 6mo agoRisk· 5mo agoConnectivity· 1mo agoAmenities· 1mo agoArea· Census 2021

5 Grays Cottages, Tomkyns Lane, Upminster, RM14 1TP

HP Score

/ 100

Mixed

Verdict

3 days ago

Verdict: INVESTIGATE, on a scale of Buy, Investigate, Avoid.
Mixed signals - investigate

Evidence

18 of 21 sources

Sale Estimate

£671,000

£638k - £705kHigh

Estimate

£671k

Range

£638k – £705k

Rent Estimate (pcm)

£2,600

£2k - £3k

Monthly

£2,600

Yield

4.66%

Verdict

Derived from HomePortfolio scores

5 Grays Cottages earns an INVESTIGATE rating with HP Score 63/100. Investment score 58/100 reflects moderate fundamentals. Crime intensity is very low. Walkability is limited (5/100). Flood risk is not assessed: check the Environment Agency long-term flood map before offering. Tenure is freehold. Every figure here comes from the live HomePortfolio API; anything it does not publish is left out.

Key SourcesEPC RegisterPortal listingsOfcom Connected NationsOfcom mobile coverageMarket estimates (third-party AVM)Defra strategic noise mapping, England Round 4 (Contains Defra data © Crown copyright and database right 2023-2024, Open Government Licence v3.0)Walk ScoreONS Census 2021Police.ukHM Land Registry company ownershipHM Land Registry covenantsHM Land Registry leasesHM Land Registry Price PaidPlanIt / council planning portalsOverture Maps PlacesOfsted / DfE GIAS

HP Score

63/ 100

Mixed

Investment Score

58/ 100

Moderate

Crime Score

13/ 100

Low

Walkability

5/ 100

Low

Transit & Bike

Transit 36Bike 35

Walk Score, out of 100

Opportunity

Why this could be an opportunity

Low confidence0 independent sourcesListing checked 28 Oct 2026

This rests largely on a single source. Treat the score as a prompt to investigate, not a conclusion.

Valuation edge0/15
claims [AVM +0.1% (HIGH)] → measured edge +0.00pp of the ask; on later-registered sales an AVM discount carried no edge and a sold-evidence gap at most +0.5pp
Market estimate used (HIGH confidence) · snapshot 10 Oct 2026
- valuation_snapshotsestimate for 100023215410· as of 10 Oct 2026
Rental economics0/40
gross yield 4.7%; range width penalty ×0.82
- valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 2600/mo (range 2350-2850)· as of 10 Oct 2026· verify before relying on this
Stress margin0/30
stressed cash flow -1,046/mo, -40% of rent (6.75% on a 75% loan; no service charge or ground rent disclosed); fails the stress - earns nothing
- underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advert· as of 28 Oct 2026
Seller motivationNot scored
context, not scored: 4 price cut(s), unknown days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge
- portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_date· as of 28 Oct 2026
Risk & liquidity14.6/15
254 sales/12mo in area; valuation range width 10%
- property_intelligencetransactions_12mo

4 of 4 components scored. Ranks on gross yield, the stress margin, risk and disclosed facts. A pricing claim earns only its measured edge: today 0 for the market estimate and at most +0.5pp for sold evidence. The score itself is not yet checked against the outcomes of homes it scored.

Economics

What happens to your money

Price sensitivity

£502,500£770,500

The same scorer re-run at hypothetical asking prices, holding rent, comps and listing history constant. Not a prediction of what the seller would accept.

Your assumptions

Purchase price£670,000

At the asking price

Monthly rent£2,600/mo

Evidenced range £2,350-£2,850

Interest rate5.4%

Loan to value75%

Cash required: £225,800
Net cash flow: -£461/mo
Cash on cash: -2.5%
Score at this price: 15

After a 8% void allowance, 15% management and 10% maintenance. Lender coverage (rent ÷ interest): 1.15 - below the usual 1.25 test. These are your assumptions, not evidence: only the pre-filled rent and price come from the record.

Evidence

Where every number comes from

valuation_snapshotsestimate for 100023215410Valuation edge · as of 10 Oct 2026
valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 2600/mo (range 2350-2850)Rental economics · as of 10 Oct 2026 · verify before relying on this
underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advertStress margin · as of 28 Oct 2026
portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_dateSeller motivation · as of 28 Oct 2026
property_intelligencetransactions_12moRisk & liquidity

Sold comparables in depth

Risks

What could kill this deal

Score confidence is low
largely a single source - treat the number as a prompt, not a conclusion
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
rent estimate 2600/mo (range 2350-2850)
Seller motivation could not be scored
context, not scored: 4 price cut(s), unknown days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge

Property risk deep-dive →

Plan

Before you offer

1. Get two written rental appraisals from local lettings agents.
The rent estimate rests on area-level evidence, not lettings on this street.
2. Ask the agent why the price was reduced and whether a previous sale fell through.
4 price cut(s) recorded on the listing history.
3. Treat the gap to the estimate as unproven - compare recent sold prices on the street yourself before pricing an offer around it.
On later completions, homes listed below their estimate sold at the same share of the asking price as the rest.
4. Commission a full structural survey, not a basic condition report.
The score prices market evidence, not the fabric of the building.

Valuation & Market

Sale Estimate£671,000

Rent Estimate (pcm)£2,600

Gross Yield4.66%

1y Growth-

3y Growth-1.5%

5y Growth-0.4%

10y Growth+1.3%

Last Sold Price-

View Market Details

Risk Overview

Flood RiskUnknown
SubsidenceSignificant
RadonLow
MiningUnknown
LandslideLow
Air QualityLow
NoiseModerate

View Full Risk Report

Planning Activity

Recent Apps

1RM14 1TP

Approval Rate

-12mo

Development

low

P1184.26
Application for the temporary siting of three portacabins
Pending
P0774.26
Provision for one new single storey detached garage block to the rear of the property for 10 Tamar Close.
Conditions
P0773.26
Provision for one new single storey detached garage block to the rear of the property for 12 Tamar Close.
Conditions

View Planning Timeline

Ownership

Corporate Ownership59.8%
Overseas OwnershipNo
Lease Term Remaining-
CovenantsRestrictive
Lease TypeFreehold
Last Ownership Change-
SourceLand Registry

View Ownership Details

Connectivity

Broadband (Standard)

3 Mbps

Mobile 4G/5G Coverage

EEThreeO2Vodafone

EV Charger

PTAL Rating

View Connectivity Map

Area Profile

Median EarningsLocal authority£40,726

Population Density-

Owner Occupied83%

Age Distribution

0-15 16%16-64 59%65+ 25%

View Area Profile

Schools Nearby

Engayne Primary School
0.7 mi
Good
Emerson Park Academy
1.1 mi
Report card2026
Ofsted no longer awards a single overall grade.
Harold Wood Primary School
1.2 mi
-
Hall Mead School
1.2 mi
Outstanding

8 of 13 nearby schools with published figures were oversubscribed in 2026 - demand, not a catchment.

View All Schools

Comparables

View All

Howards Farm Tomkyns Lane
-
£2.63M
-
The Cottage Tomkyns Lane
-
£1.15M
-
Upminster Lodge Tomkyns Lane
-
£2.17M
-
Uplands Tomkyns Lane
-
£3.65M
-

Boundary data not available for this property

No registered title polygon, building footprint, or street match for this property yet.

Why: No HMLR INSPIRE / OSM footprint / OS Open USRN match for this UPRN

Source: HM Land Registry INSPIRE / OpenStreetMap / OS Open USRN