The Willows, Shay Lane, Forton, Newport, TF10 8DA

UPRN:100031756987Detached House3 bedsBuilt 1967-1975

FreeholdCouncil Tax: Band EEPC: D (64)

Data freshness:Listing· freshPlanning· 4mo agoOwnership· freshEPC· 3mo agoRisk· 5mo agoConnectivity· 1mo agoSchools· 1mo agoAmenities· 2mo agoArea· Census 2021Council Tax· 1mo ago

The Willows, Shay Lane, Forton, Newport, TF10 8DA

HP Score

/ 100

Mixed

Verdict

today

Verdict: INVESTIGATE, on a scale of Buy, Investigate, Avoid.
Mixed signals - investigate

Evidence

18 of 21 sources

Sale Estimate

£596,000

£566k - £626kHigh

Estimate

£596k

Range

£566k – £626k

Rent Estimate (pcm)

£4,450

£4k - £5k

Monthly

£4,450

Yield

8.91%

Verdict

Derived from HomePortfolio scores

The Willows earns an INVESTIGATE rating with HP Score 64/100. Investment score 63/100 reflects moderate fundamentals. Crime intensity is low. Walkability is limited (7/100). Flood risk is not assessed: check the Environment Agency long-term flood map before offering. Tenure is freehold. Every figure here comes from the live HomePortfolio API; anything it does not publish is left out.

Key SourcesEPC RegisterPortal listingsOfcom Connected NationsOfcom mobile coverageMarket estimates (third-party AVM)HM Land Registry sales matched to addressDefra strategic noise mapping, England Round 4 (Contains Defra data © Crown copyright and database right 2023-2024, Open Government Licence v3.0)Walk ScoreONS Census 2021Police.ukHM Land Registry covenantsHM Land Registry Price PaidPlanIt / council planning portalsOverture Maps PlacesOfsted / DfE GIAS

HP Score

64/ 100

Mixed

Investment Score

63/ 100

Moderate

Crime Score

16/ 100

Moderate

Walkability

7/ 100

Low

Transit & Bike

Transit 10Bike 20

Walk Score, out of 100

Opportunity

Why this could be an opportunity

Reduced confidence2 independent sourcesListing checked 7 Nov 2026

Fewer independent sources agree, or a component could not be scored.

Valuation edge0/15
claims [AVM -0.5% (HIGH), sold-comps -6.0%, £/sqft -6.0%] → measured edge +0.00pp of the ask; on later-registered sales an AVM discount carried no edge and a sold-evidence gap at most +0.5pp
Market estimate used (HIGH confidence) · snapshot 9 Nov 2026
- valuation_snapshotsestimate for 100031756987· as of 9 Nov 2026
- property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 8 comps, dispersion 7.2%· as of 4 Nov 2026
Rental economics31.2/40
gross yield 8.9%; range width penalty ×1.00
- valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 4450/mo (range 4250-4700)· as of 9 Nov 2026· verify before relying on this
Stress margin13.8/30
stressed cash flow +614/mo, +14% of rent (6.75% on a 75% loan; no service charge or ground rent disclosed); passes the stress
- underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advert· as of 7 Nov 2026
Seller motivationNot scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 130 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge
- portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_date· as of 7 Nov 2026
Risk & liquidity14.6/15
196 sales/12mo in area; valuation range width 10%
- property_intelligencetransactions_12mo

4 of 4 components scored. Ranks on gross yield, the stress margin, risk and disclosed facts. A pricing claim earns only its measured edge: today 0 for the market estimate and at most +0.5pp for sold evidence. The score itself is not yet checked against the outcomes of homes it scored.

Economics

What happens to your money

Price sensitivityScores 80+ up to £479,000

£449,000£689,000

The same scorer re-run at hypothetical asking prices, holding rent, comps and listing history constant. Not a prediction of what the seller would accept.

Your assumptions

Purchase price£599,000

At the asking price

Monthly rent£4,450/mo

Evidenced range £4,250-£4,700

Interest rate5.4%

Loan to value75%

Cash required: £200,950
Net cash flow: £1,059/mo
Cash on cash: 6.3%
Score at this price: 60

After a 8% void allowance, 15% management and 10% maintenance. Lender coverage (rent ÷ interest): 2.20 - clears the usual 1.25 test. These are your assumptions, not evidence: only the pre-filled rent and price come from the record.

Evidence

Where every number comes from

valuation_snapshotsestimate for 100031756987Valuation edge · as of 9 Nov 2026
property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 8 comps, dispersion 7.2%Valuation edge · as of 4 Nov 2026
valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 4450/mo (range 4250-4700)Rental economics · as of 9 Nov 2026 · verify before relying on this
underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advertStress margin · as of 7 Nov 2026
portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_dateSeller motivation · as of 7 Nov 2026

Risks

What could kill this deal

Score confidence is reduced
fewer independent sources agree, or a component could not be scored
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
rent estimate 4450/mo (range 4250-4700)
Seller motivation could not be scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 130 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge

Property risk deep-dive →

Plan

Before you offer

1. Get two written rental appraisals from local lettings agents.
The rent estimate rests on area-level evidence, not lettings on this street.
2. Set your walk-away price before viewing - above £479,000 the deal stops scoring well.
Computed by re-running the score at higher prices.
3. Commission a full structural survey, not a basic condition report.
The score prices market evidence, not the fabric of the building.

Every step above was generated from a specific gap or flag in the evidence - no generic advice, no invented tasks.

Valuation & Market

Sale Estimate£596,000

Rent Estimate (pcm)£4,450

Gross Yield8.91%

1y Growth-

3y Growth-1.9%

5y Growth+0.7%

10y Growth+2.3%

Last Sold Price£98,000 (1998-12-11)

View Market Details

Risk Overview

Flood RiskUnknown
SubsidenceModerate
RadonLow
MiningUnknown
LandslideLow
Air QualityLow
NoiseLow

View Full Risk Report

Planning Activity

Recent Apps

0TF10 8DA

Approval Rate

-12mo

Development

low

26/42668/HOU
Replacement of existing window and door joinery
Pending
26/42505/HOU
Alterations to fenestration and internal alterations (in conjunction with 26/42506/LBC)
Pending
26/42506/LBC
Alterations to fenestration and internal alterations (in conjunction with 26/42505/HOU)
Pending

View Planning Timeline

Ownership

Corporate Ownership83.9%
Overseas OwnershipNo
Lease Term Remaining-
CovenantsRestrictive
Lease TypeFreehold
Last Ownership Change1998-12-11
SourceLand Registry

View Ownership Details

Connectivity

Broadband (Standard)

18 Mbps

Mobile 4G/5G Coverage

EEThreeO2Vodafone

EV Charger

PTAL Rating

View Connectivity Map

Area Profile

Median EarningsLocal authority£33,872

Population Density39 /km²

Owner Occupied78%

Age Distribution

0-15 16%16-64 61%65+ 23%

View Area Profile

Schools Nearby

St Peter and St Paul Catholic Primary School, A Voluntary Academy
0.9 mi
Report card2026
Ofsted no longer awards a single overall grade.
Haberdashers' Castle House School
1.3 mi
Inspected by ISI
Haberdashers' Adams
1.5 mi
Good
Newport Church of England Voluntary Controlled Junior School
1.6 mi
GoodImproving

4 of 11 nearby schools with published figures were oversubscribed in 2026 - demand, not a catchment.

View All Schools

Comparables

View All

New Cottage Shay Lane
-
£385k
-
Vyrnwy Shay Lane
-
£480k
-
Copperkins Shay Lane
-
£375k
-
Vyrnwy Shay Lane
-
£317k
-

Boundary data not available for this property

No registered title polygon, building footprint, or street match for this property yet.

Why: No HMLR INSPIRE / OSM footprint / OS Open USRN match for this UPRN

Source: HM Land Registry INSPIRE / OpenStreetMap / OS Open USRN