Downs Lee, Burgh Heath Road, Epsom, KT17 4LS

UPRN:100061350636Detached House4 bedsBuilt 1991-1995

FreeholdCouncil Tax: Band GEPC: C (69)

Data freshness:Listing· freshOwnership· freshEPC· 6mo agoRisk· 5mo agoConnectivity· 1mo agoSchools· 1mo agoAmenities· 2mo agoArea· Census 2021Council Tax· 4mo ago

Downs Lee, Burgh Heath Road, Epsom, KT17 4LS

HP Score

/ 100

Mixed

Verdict

yesterday

Verdict: INVESTIGATE, on a scale of Buy, Investigate, Avoid.
Mixed signals - investigate

Evidence

17 of 21 sources

Sale Estimate

£1,721,000

£1.64M - £1.81MHigh

Estimate

£1.72M

Range

£1.64M – £1.81M

Rent Estimate (pcm)

£5,850

£5k - £7k

Monthly

£5,850

Yield

4.40%

Verdict

Derived from HomePortfolio scores

Downs Lee earns an INVESTIGATE rating with HP Score 71/100. Investment score 67/100 reflects moderate fundamentals. Crime intensity is low. Walkability is limited (46/100). Flood risk is not assessed: check the Environment Agency long-term flood map before offering. Tenure is freehold. Every figure here comes from the live HomePortfolio API; anything it does not publish is left out.

Key SourcesEPC RegisterPortal listingsOfcom Connected NationsOfcom mobile coverageMarket estimates (third-party AVM)Defra strategic noise mapping, England Round 4 (Contains Defra data © Crown copyright and database right 2023-2024, Open Government Licence v3.0)Walk ScoreONS Census 2021Police.ukHM Land Registry covenantsHM Land Registry Price PaidPlanIt / council planning portalsOverture Maps PlacesOfsted / DfE GIAS

HP Score

71/ 100

Mixed

Investment Score

67/ 100

Moderate

Crime Score

31/ 100

Moderate

Walkability

46/ 100

Mixed

Transit & Bike

Transit 16Bike 32

Walk Score, out of 100

Opportunity

Why this could be an opportunity

Low confidence0 independent sourcesListing checked 10 Nov 2026

This rests largely on a single source. Treat the score as a prompt to investigate, not a conclusion.

Valuation edge0/15
claims [AVM +7.3% (HIGH), sold-comps -22.9%, £/sqft -22.9%] → measured edge +0.00pp of the ask; on later-registered sales an AVM discount carried no edge and a sold-evidence gap at most +0.5pp
Market estimate used (HIGH confidence) · snapshot 9 Nov 2026
- valuation_snapshotsestimate for 100061350636· as of 9 Nov 2026
- property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 6 comps, dispersion 22%· as of 7 Nov 2026
Rental economics0/40
gross yield 4.4%; range width penalty ×0.76
- valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 5850/mo (range 5200-6500)· as of 9 Nov 2026· verify before relying on this
Stress margin0/30
stressed cash flow -2,559/mo, -44% of rent (6.75% on a 75% loan; no service charge or ground rent disclosed); fails the stress - earns nothing
- underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advert· as of 10 Nov 2026
Seller motivationNot scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 50 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge
- portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_date· as of 10 Nov 2026
Risk & liquidity14.6/15
258 sales/12mo in area; valuation range width 10%
- property_intelligencetransactions_12mo

4 of 4 components scored. Ranks on gross yield, the stress margin, risk and disclosed facts. A pricing claim earns only its measured edge: today 0 for the market estimate and at most +0.5pp for sold evidence. The score itself is not yet checked against the outcomes of homes it scored.

Economics

What happens to your money

Price sensitivity

£1,196,000£1,834,000

The same scorer re-run at hypothetical asking prices, holding rent, comps and listing history constant. Not a prediction of what the seller would accept.

Your assumptions

Purchase price£1,595,000

At the asking price

Monthly rent£5,850/mo

Evidenced range £5,200-£6,500

Interest rate5.4%

Loan to value75%

Cash required: £584,950
Net cash flow: -£1,333/mo
Cash on cash: -2.7%
Score at this price: 15

After a 8% void allowance, 15% management and 10% maintenance. Lender coverage (rent ÷ interest): 1.09 - below the usual 1.25 test. These are your assumptions, not evidence: only the pre-filled rent and price come from the record.

Evidence

Where every number comes from

valuation_snapshotsestimate for 100061350636Valuation edge · as of 9 Nov 2026
property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 6 comps, dispersion 22%Valuation edge · as of 7 Nov 2026
valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 5850/mo (range 5200-6500)Rental economics · as of 9 Nov 2026 · verify before relying on this
underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advertStress margin · as of 10 Nov 2026
portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_dateSeller motivation · as of 10 Nov 2026

Risks

What could kill this deal

Score confidence is low
largely a single source - treat the number as a prompt, not a conclusion
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
rent estimate 5850/mo (range 5200-6500)
Seller motivation could not be scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 50 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge

Property risk deep-dive →

Plan

Before you offer

1. Get two written rental appraisals from local lettings agents.
The rent estimate rests on area-level evidence, not lettings on this street.
2. Treat the gap to the estimate as unproven - compare recent sold prices on the street yourself before pricing an offer around it.
On later completions, homes listed below their estimate sold at the same share of the asking price as the rest.
3. Commission a full structural survey, not a basic condition report.
The score prices market evidence, not the fabric of the building.

Every step above was generated from a specific gap or flag in the evidence - no generic advice, no invented tasks.

Valuation & Market

Sale Estimate£1,721,000

Rent Estimate (pcm)£5,850

Gross Yield4.40%

1y Growth-

3y Growth+1.8%

5y Growth+1.1%

10y Growth+0.9%

Last Sold Price-

View Market Details

Risk Overview

Flood RiskUnknown
SubsidenceSignificant
RadonLow
MiningLow
LandslideLow
Air QualityLow
NoiseLow

View Full Risk Report

Planning Activity

Recent Apps

1KT17 4LS

Approval Rate

-12mo

Development

low

26/01250/CAT
T1- Holm Oak - Reduce the crown by 2-3m back to previous reduction points to create a well shaped and balanced crown matching the same shape as previous reductions in the past. T2- Robinia tree - Reduce the crown by 2m all round to create a well shaped crown taking it back to previous reduction points. T3- Bay tree - Reduce the height by 2m-3m in height taking it back to previous reduction points. T4- Conifer tree - Remove
Pending
26/01251/FLH
Single storey front extension.
Pending
26/01224/FUL
Part garage conversion to accommodate a habitable space, single storey front porch extension. Single storey rear extension and alterations to fenestration (retrospective)
Pending

View Planning Timeline

Ownership

Corporate Ownership56.8%
Overseas OwnershipNo
Lease Term Remaining-
CovenantsRestrictive
Lease TypeFreehold
Last Ownership Change-
SourceLand Registry

View Ownership Details

Connectivity

Broadband (Standard)

11 Mbps

Mobile 4G/5G Coverage

EEThreeO2Vodafone

EV Charger

PTAL Rating

View Connectivity Map

Area Profile

Median EarningsLocal authority£43,006

Population Density1,064 /km²

Owner Occupied89%

Age Distribution

0-15 19%16-64 60%65+ 21%

View Area Profile

Schools Nearby

St Christopher's School Trust (Epsom) Ltd
0.2 mi
Inspected by ISI
St Martin's Church of England Junior School
0.4 mi
Inspected as St Martin's CofE (Aided) Junior School (URN 125142) on 31 Oct 2017
St Martin's Church of England Infant School
0.4 mi
Area grades2025
Inspected after Ofsted withdrew the single overall grade.
Epsom College
0.5 mi
Inspected by ISI

5 of 8 nearby schools with published figures were oversubscribed in 2026 - demand, not a catchment.

View All Schools

Comparables

View All

Woodstock Burgh Heath Road
-
£1.11M
-
St Elmo Burgh Heath Road
-
£2.22M
-
Double Gates Burgh Heath Road
-
£867k
-
22 Burgh Heath Road
-
£1.35M
-

Boundary data not available for this property

No registered title polygon, building footprint, or street match for this property yet.

Why: No HMLR INSPIRE / OSM footprint / OS Open USRN match for this UPRN

Source: HM Land Registry INSPIRE / OpenStreetMap / OS Open USRN