38 Ailsworth Road, Luton, LU3 2UG

UPRN:100080124331Detached House4 bedsBuilt 1983-1990

FreeholdCouncil Tax: Band DEPC: C (71)

Data freshness:Listing· freshPrice Paid· freshEPC· 6mo agoRisk· 5mo agoConnectivity· 1mo agoSchools· 1mo agoAmenities· 2mo agoArea· Census 2021

HP Score

/ 100

Mixed

Verdict

5 days ago

Verdict: INVESTIGATE, on a scale of Buy, Investigate, Avoid.
Mixed signals - investigate

Evidence

19 of 21 sources

Sale Estimate

£490,000

£465k - £514kHigh

Estimate

£490k

Range

£465k – £514k

Rent Estimate (pcm)

£2,200

£2k - £2k

Monthly

£2,200

Yield

4.80%

Verdict

Derived from HomePortfolio scores

38 Ailsworth Road earns an INVESTIGATE rating with HP Score 73/100. Investment score 62/100 reflects moderate fundamentals. Crime intensity is very low. Walkability is limited (45/100). Flood risk is not assessed: check the Environment Agency long-term flood map before offering. Tenure is freehold. Every figure here comes from the live HomePortfolio API; anything it does not publish is left out.

Key SourcesEPC RegisterPortal listingsOfcom Connected NationsOfcom mobile coverageMarket estimates (third-party AVM)HM Land Registry sales matched to addressDefra strategic noise mapping, England Round 4 (Contains Defra data © Crown copyright and database right 2023-2024, Open Government Licence v3.0)Walk ScoreONS Census 2021Police.ukHM Land Registry company ownershipHM Land Registry covenantsHM Land Registry Price PaidPlanIt / council planning portalsOverture Maps PlacesOfsted / DfE GIAS

HP Score

73/ 100

Mixed

Investment Score

62/ 100

Moderate

Crime Score

12/ 100

Low

Walkability

45/ 100

Mixed

Transit & Bike

Transit 16Bike 46

Walk Score, out of 100

Opportunity

Why this could be an opportunity

Low confidence0 independent sourcesListing checked 2 Nov 2026

This rests largely on a single source. Treat the score as a prompt to investigate, not a conclusion.

Valuation edge-1.6/15
claims [AVM -12.2% (HIGH), sold-comps -5.2%, £/sqft -5.2%] → measured edge -0.33pp of the ask; on later-registered sales an AVM discount carried no edge and a sold-evidence gap at most +0.5pp; asking more than 10% above the estimate (measured -0.33pp)
Market estimate used (HIGH confidence) · snapshot 9 Oct 2026
- valuation_snapshotsestimate for 100080124331· as of 9 Oct 2026
- property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 12 comps, dispersion 19.7%· as of 1 Nov 2026
Rental economics0/40
gross yield 4.8%; range width penalty ×0.88
- valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 2200/mo (range 2000-2350)· as of 9 Oct 2026· verify before relying on this
Stress margin0/30
stressed cash flow -833/mo, -38% of rent (6.75% on a 75% loan; no service charge or ground rent disclosed); fails the stress - earns nothing
- underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advert· as of 2 Nov 2026
Seller motivationNot scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 53 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge
- portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_date· as of 2 Nov 2026
Risk & liquidity14.6/15
400 sales/12mo in area; valuation range width 10%
- property_intelligencetransactions_12mo

4 of 4 components scored. Ranks on gross yield, the stress margin, risk and disclosed facts. A pricing claim earns only its measured edge: today 0 for the market estimate and at most +0.5pp for sold evidence. The score itself is not yet checked against the outcomes of homes it scored.

Economics

What happens to your money

Price sensitivity

£412,500£632,500

The same scorer re-run at hypothetical asking prices, holding rent, comps and listing history constant. Not a prediction of what the seller would accept.

Your assumptions

Purchase price£550,000

At the asking price

Monthly rent£2,200/mo

Evidenced range £2,000-£2,350

Interest rate5.4%

Loan to value75%

Cash required: £183,800
Net cash flow: -£333/mo
Cash on cash: -2.2%
Score at this price: 13

After a 8% void allowance, 15% management and 10% maintenance. Lender coverage (rent ÷ interest): 1.19 - below the usual 1.25 test. These are your assumptions, not evidence: only the pre-filled rent and price come from the record.

Evidence

Where every number comes from

valuation_snapshotsestimate for 100080124331Valuation edge · as of 9 Oct 2026
property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 12 comps, dispersion 19.7%Valuation edge · as of 1 Nov 2026
valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 2200/mo (range 2000-2350)Rental economics · as of 9 Oct 2026 · verify before relying on this
underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advertStress margin · as of 2 Nov 2026
portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_dateSeller motivation · as of 2 Nov 2026

Risks

What could kill this deal

Score confidence is low
largely a single source - treat the number as a prompt, not a conclusion
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
rent estimate 2200/mo (range 2000-2350)
Seller motivation could not be scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 53 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge

Property risk deep-dive →

Plan

Before you offer

1. Get two written rental appraisals from local lettings agents.
The rent estimate rests on area-level evidence, not lettings on this street.
2. Commission a full structural survey, not a basic condition report.
The score prices market evidence, not the fabric of the building.

Every step above was generated from a specific gap or flag in the evidence - no generic advice, no invented tasks.

Valuation & Market

Sale Estimate£490,000

Rent Estimate (pcm)£2,200

Gross Yield4.80%

1y Growth+141.0%

3y Growth+2.7%

5y Growth+3.9%

10y Growth+4.0%

Last Sold Price£340,000 (2016-02-26)

View Market Details

Risk Overview

Flood RiskUnknown
SubsidenceModerate
RadonLow
MiningLow
LandslideLow
Air QualityLow
NoiseLow

View Full Risk Report

Planning Activity

Recent Apps

2LU3 2UG

Approval Rate

100%12mo

Development

low

26/01071/LAWP
Certificate of lawfulness of proposed development - Erection of a single storey rear extension
Pending
26/00981/LAWP
Certificate of Lawfulness of Proposed Development - Erection of rear outbuilding for use as gym/office.
Pending
26/00976/FULHH
Erection of a single storey rear extension with rear acess ramp
Pending

View Planning Timeline

Ownership

Corporate Ownership69.6%
Overseas OwnershipNo
Lease Term Remaining-
CovenantsRestrictive
Lease TypeFreehold
Last Ownership Change2016-02-26
SourceLand Registry

View Ownership Details

Connectivity

Broadband (Standard)

5 Mbps

Mobile 4G/5G Coverage

EEThreeO2Vodafone

EV Charger

PTAL Rating

View Connectivity Map

Area Profile

Median EarningsLocal authority£28,741

Population Density-

Owner Occupied77%

Age Distribution

0-15 21%16-64 59%65+ 20%

View Area Profile

Schools Nearby

The Meads Primary School
0.2 mi
Good
Woodlands Secondary School
0.3 mi
OutstandingConcerns
Lea Manor High School
0.5 mi
Report card2026
Ofsted no longer awards a single overall grade.
Waulud Primary School
0.5 mi
Good

1 of 12 nearby schools with published figures were oversubscribed in 2026 - demand, not a catchment.

View All Schools

Comparables

View All

42 Ailsworth Road
-
£560k
-
2 Ailsworth Road
-
£1.00M
-
41 Ailsworth Road
-
£415k
-
44 Ailsworth Road
-
£477k
-

Boundary data not available for this property

No registered title polygon, building footprint, or street match for this property yet.

Why: No HMLR INSPIRE / OSM footprint / OS Open USRN match for this UPRN

Source: HM Land Registry INSPIRE / OpenStreetMap / OS Open USRN