15 Birch Way, Chesham, HP5 3JL

UPRN:100080508463Flat/Maisonette3 bedsBuilt 1967-1975

Tenure: -Council Tax: Band CEPC: D (63)

Data freshness:Planning· 2mo agoEPC· 3mo agoRisk· 5mo agoConnectivity· 1mo agoSchools· 1mo agoAmenities· 2mo agoArea· Census 2021

HP Score

/ 100

Strong

Verdict

7 days ago

Verdict: INVESTIGATE, on a scale of Buy, Investigate, Avoid.
Strong fundamentals; flood risk not assessed

Evidence

18 of 21 sources

Sale Estimate

£298,000

£268k - £328kMedium

Estimate

£298k

Range

£268k – £328k

Rent Estimate (pcm)

£1,550

£1k - £2k

Monthly

£1,550

Yield

5.31%

Verdict

Derived from HomePortfolio scores

15 Birch Way earns an INVESTIGATE rating with HP Score 77/100. Investment score 65/100 reflects moderate fundamentals. Crime intensity is very low. Walkability is limited (52/100). Flood risk is not assessed: check the Environment Agency long-term flood map before offering. Every figure here comes from the live HomePortfolio API; anything it does not publish is left out.

Key SourcesEPC RegisterPortal listingsOfcom Connected NationsOfcom mobile coverageMarket estimates (third-party AVM)Defra strategic noise mapping, England Round 4 (Contains Defra data © Crown copyright and database right 2023-2024, Open Government Licence v3.0)Walk ScoreONS Census 2021Police.ukHM Land Registry covenantsHM Land Registry leasesHM Land Registry Price PaidPlanIt / council planning portalsOverture Maps PlacesOfsted / DfE GIAS

HP Score

77/ 100

Strong

Investment Score

65/ 100

Moderate

Crime Score

9/ 100

Low

Walkability

52/ 100

Moderate

Transit & Bike

Transit 25Bike 29

Walk Score, out of 100

Opportunity

Why this could be an opportunity

Low confidence1 independent sourceLead to verifyListing checked 2 Nov 2026

This rests largely on a single source. Treat the score as a prompt to investigate, not a conclusion.

Check before relying on this score: leasehold with no service charge disclosed - the stress test assumes GBP 0. It ranks after every home whose inputs are verified.

Valuation edge1.9/15
claims [AVM -17.4% (MEDIUM), sold-comps +3.0%, £/sqft +3.0%] → measured edge +0.38pp of the ask; on later-registered sales an AVM discount carried no edge and a sold-evidence gap at most +0.5pp; asking more than 10% above the estimate (measured -0.33pp)
Market estimate used (MEDIUM confidence) · snapshot 12 Oct 2026
- valuation_snapshotsestimate for 100080508463· as of 12 Oct 2026
- property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 12 comps, dispersion 22.2%· as of 29 Oct 2026
Rental economics2.4/40
gross yield 5.3%; range width penalty ×0.94
- valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 1550/mo (range 1450-1650)· as of 12 Oct 2026· verify before relying on this
Stress margin0/30
stressed cash flow -467/mo, -30% of rent (6.75% on a 75% loan; no service charge or ground rent disclosed); fails the stress - earns nothing; leasehold with no service charge disclosed - the stress assumes GBP 0
- underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advert· as of 2 Nov 2026· verify before relying on this
Seller motivationNot scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 95 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge
- portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_date· as of 2 Nov 2026
Risk & liquidity12.8/15
226 sales/12mo in area; valuation range width 20%
- property_intelligencetransactions_12mo

4 of 4 components scored. Ranks on gross yield, the stress margin, risk and disclosed facts. A pricing claim earns only its measured edge: today 0 for the market estimate and at most +0.5pp for sold evidence. The score itself is not yet checked against the outcomes of homes it scored.

Economics

What happens to your money

Price sensitivity

£262,500£402,500

The same scorer re-run at hypothetical asking prices, holding rent, comps and listing history constant. Not a prediction of what the seller would accept.

Your assumptions

Purchase price£350,000

At the asking price

Monthly rent£1,550/mo

Evidenced range £1,450-£1,650

Interest rate5.4%

Loan to value75%

Cash required: £113,800
Net cash flow: -£108/mo
Cash on cash: -1.1%
Score at this price: 17

After a 8% void allowance, 15% management and 10% maintenance. Lender coverage (rent ÷ interest): 1.31 - clears the usual 1.25 test. These are your assumptions, not evidence: only the pre-filled rent and price come from the record.

Evidence

Where every number comes from

valuation_snapshotsestimate for 100080508463Valuation edge · as of 12 Oct 2026
property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 12 comps, dispersion 22.2%Valuation edge · as of 29 Oct 2026
valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 1550/mo (range 1450-1650)Rental economics · as of 12 Oct 2026 · verify before relying on this
underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advertStress margin · as of 2 Nov 2026 · verify before relying on this
portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_dateSeller motivation · as of 2 Nov 2026

Risks

What could kill this deal

Score confidence is low
largely a single source - treat the number as a prompt, not a conclusion
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
rent estimate 1550/mo (range 1450-1650)
Stress margin needs verification before you rely on it
costs not disclosed by the advert

Plan

Before you offer

1. Get two written rental appraisals from local lettings agents.
The rent estimate rests on area-level evidence, not lettings on this street.
2. Treat the gap to the estimate as unproven - compare recent sold prices on the street yourself before pricing an offer around it.
On later completions, homes listed below their estimate sold at the same share of the asking price as the rest.
3. Commission a full structural survey, not a basic condition report.
The score prices market evidence, not the fabric of the building.

Every step above was generated from a specific gap or flag in the evidence - no generic advice, no invented tasks.

Valuation & Market

Sale Estimate£298,000

Rent Estimate (pcm)£1,550

Gross Yield5.31%

1y Growth-

3y Growth+3.4%

5y Growth+2.5%

10y Growth+3.4%

Last Sold Price-

View Market Details

Risk Overview

Flood RiskUnknown
SubsidenceModerate
RadonModerate
MiningLow
LandslideLow
Air QualityLow
NoiseLow

View Full Risk Report

Planning Activity

Recent Apps

1HP5 3JL

Approval Rate

-12mo

Development

low

PL/26/08617/FA
Alterations to ground floor front elevation
Pending
PL/26/07961/PAPCR
Prior Notification under Class MA of Part 3, Schedule 2 of the Town and Country Planning (General Permitted Development) (England) Order 2015 for conversion of commercial, business and service use to 6 self-contained flats
Pending
PL/26/08431/NMA
Non-material amendment to planning approval PL/26/05161/FA (Erection of a single-storey side extension and conversion of the existing garage to provide additional living accommodation, including a kitchen, pantry and utility room, together with associated internal alterations and external works.) to allow for a reduction of the rear projection of the approved single-storey extension by 500 mm
Pending

View Planning Timeline

Ownership

Corporate Ownership65%
Overseas OwnershipNo
Lease Term Remaining71 yrs
CovenantsRestrictive
Lease Type-
Last Ownership Change-
SourceLand Registry

View Ownership Details

Connectivity

Broadband (Standard)

14 Mbps

Mobile 4G/5G Coverage

EEThreeO2Vodafone

EV Charger

PTAL Rating

View Connectivity Map

Area Profile

Median EarningsLocal authority£35,937

Population Density1,165 /km²

Owner Occupied83%

Age Distribution

0-15 22%16-64 62%65+ 16%

View Area Profile

Schools Nearby

Newtown School
0.2 mi
Area grades2025
Inspected after Ofsted withdrew the single overall grade.
Heritage House School
0.4 mi
-
Brushwood Junior School
0.4 mi
Outstanding
Ivingswood Academy
0.5 mi
Area grades2025
Inspected after Ofsted withdrew the single overall grade.

2 of 10 nearby schools with published figures were oversubscribed in 2026 - demand, not a catchment.

View All Schools

Comparables

View All

39 Birch Way
-
£450k
-
39 Birch Way
-
£450k
-
21 Birch Way
-
£465k
-
1 Birch Way
-
£545k
-

Boundary data not available for this property

No registered title polygon, building footprint, or street match for this property yet.

Why: No HMLR INSPIRE / OSM footprint / OS Open USRN match for this UPRN

Source: HM Land Registry INSPIRE / OpenStreetMap / OS Open USRN