Horseshoe Cottage, 31A Station Road, Welham Green, North Mymms, Hatfield, AL9 7PQ

UPRN:100080965876Semi-Detached House3 bedsBuilt before 1900

FreeholdCouncil Tax: -EPC: B (82)

Data freshness:Listing· freshPlanning· 4mo agoEPC· 3mo agoRisk· 5mo agoConnectivity· 1mo agoSchools· 1mo agoAmenities· 2mo agoArea· Census 2021

Horseshoe Cottage, 31A Station Road, Welham Green, North Mymms, Hatfield, AL9 7PQ

HP Score

/ 100

Mixed

Verdict

3 days ago

Verdict: INVESTIGATE, on a scale of Buy, Investigate, Avoid.
Mixed signals - investigate

Evidence

18 of 21 sources

Sale Estimate

£640,000

£576k - £704kMedium

Estimate

£640k

Range

£576k – £704k

Rent Estimate (pcm)

£2,250

£2k - £3k

Monthly

£2,250

Yield

2.25%

Verdict

Derived from HomePortfolio scores

Horseshoe Cottage earns an INVESTIGATE rating with HP Score 71/100. Investment score 59/100 reflects moderate fundamentals. Crime intensity is low. Walkability is limited (47/100). Flood risk is not assessed: check the Environment Agency long-term flood map before offering. Tenure is freehold. Every figure here comes from the live HomePortfolio API; anything it does not publish is left out.

Key SourcesEPC RegisterPortal listingsOfcom Connected NationsOfcom mobile coverageMarket estimates (third-party AVM)HM Land Registry sales matched to addressDefra strategic noise mapping, England Round 4 (Contains Defra data © Crown copyright and database right 2023-2024, Open Government Licence v3.0)Walk ScoreONS Census 2021Police.ukHM Land Registry covenantsHM Land Registry Price PaidPlanIt / council planning portalsOverture Maps PlacesOfsted / DfE GIAS

HP Score

71/ 100

Mixed

Investment Score

59/ 100

Moderate

Crime Score

19/ 100

Moderate

Walkability

47/ 100

Mixed

Transit & Bike

Transit 12Bike 36

Walk Score, out of 100

Opportunity

Why this could be an opportunity

Low confidence0 independent sourcesListing checked 4 Nov 2026

This rests largely on a single source. Treat the score as a prompt to investigate, not a conclusion.

Valuation edge-0.6/15
claims [AVM -87.4% (MEDIUM), sold-comps -138.5%, £/sqft -138.4%] → measured edge -0.12pp of the ask; on later-registered sales an AVM discount carried no edge and a sold-evidence gap at most +0.5pp; asking more than 10% above the estimate (measured -0.33pp)
Market estimate used (MEDIUM confidence) · snapshot 12 Oct 2026
- valuation_snapshotsestimate for 100080965876· as of 12 Oct 2026
- property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 12 comps, dispersion 20.1%· as of 27 Oct 2026
Rental economics0/40
gross yield 2.3%; range width penalty ×0.76
- valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 2250/mo (range 2000-2500)· as of 12 Oct 2026· verify before relying on this
Stress margin0/30
stressed cash flow -3,537/mo, -157% of rent (6.75% on a 75% loan; no service charge or ground rent disclosed); fails the stress - earns nothing
- underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advert· as of 4 Nov 2026
Seller motivationNot scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 158 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge
- portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_date· as of 4 Nov 2026
Risk & liquidity12.8/15
90 sales/12mo in area; valuation range width 20%
- property_intelligencetransactions_12mo

4 of 4 components scored. Ranks on gross yield, the stress margin, risk and disclosed facts. A pricing claim earns only its measured edge: today 0 for the market estimate and at most +0.5pp for sold evidence. The score itself is not yet checked against the outcomes of homes it scored.

Economics

What happens to your money

Price sensitivity

£899,500£1,379,500

The same scorer re-run at hypothetical asking prices, holding rent, comps and listing history constant. Not a prediction of what the seller would accept.

Your assumptions

Purchase price£1,199,500

At the asking price

Monthly rent£2,250/mo

Evidenced range £2,000-£2,500

Interest rate5.4%

Loan to value75%

Cash required: £424,850
Net cash flow: -£2,491/mo
Cash on cash: -7.0%
Score at this price: 12

After a 8% void allowance, 15% management and 10% maintenance. Lender coverage (rent ÷ interest): 0.56 - below the usual 1.25 test. These are your assumptions, not evidence: only the pre-filled rent and price come from the record.

Evidence

Where every number comes from

valuation_snapshotsestimate for 100080965876Valuation edge · as of 12 Oct 2026
property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 12 comps, dispersion 20.1%Valuation edge · as of 27 Oct 2026
valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 2250/mo (range 2000-2500)Rental economics · as of 12 Oct 2026 · verify before relying on this
underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advertStress margin · as of 4 Nov 2026
portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_dateSeller motivation · as of 4 Nov 2026

Risks

What could kill this deal

Score confidence is low
largely a single source - treat the number as a prompt, not a conclusion
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
rent estimate 2250/mo (range 2000-2500)
Seller motivation could not be scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 158 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge

Property risk deep-dive →

Plan

Before you offer

1. Get two written rental appraisals from local lettings agents.
The rent estimate rests on area-level evidence, not lettings on this street.
2. Commission a full structural survey, not a basic condition report.
The score prices market evidence, not the fabric of the building.

Every step above was generated from a specific gap or flag in the evidence - no generic advice, no invented tasks.

Valuation & Market

Sale Estimate£640,000

Rent Estimate (pcm)£2,250

Gross Yield2.25%

1y Growth-

3y Growth+3.6%

5y Growth+2.1%

10y Growth+2.6%

Last Sold Price£460,000 (2017-08-04)

View Market Details

Risk Overview

Flood RiskUnknown
SubsidenceSignificant
RadonLow
MiningModerate
LandslideLow
Air QualityLow
NoiseLow

View Full Risk Report

Planning Activity

Recent Apps

0AL9 7PQ

Approval Rate

-12mo

Development

low

6/2026/1819/OUTLINE
Outline planning application, with all matters are reserved except access, for up to 148 new dwellings, including 74 affordable homes, and all ancillary works on Land to the North of Bradmore Way, The Brookmans Park Estate [BRP4]
Pending
6/2026/1596/HOUSE
Erection of first floor side extension and timber cladding and rendering to existing front elevation
Pending
6/2026/1549/LAWP
Certificate of lawfulness for the replacement of an existing gate and fence
Rejected

View Planning Timeline

Ownership

Corporate Ownership67.9%
Overseas OwnershipNo
Lease Term Remaining-
CovenantsRestrictive
Lease TypeFreehold
Last Ownership Change2017-08-04
SourceLand Registry

View Ownership Details

Connectivity

Broadband (Standard)

5 Mbps

Mobile 4G/5G Coverage

EEThreeO2Vodafone

EV Charger

PTAL Rating

View Connectivity Map

Area Profile

Median EarningsLocal authority£37,805

Population Density169 /km²

Owner Occupied81%

Age Distribution

0-15 13%16-64 63%65+ 24%

View Area Profile

Schools Nearby

St Mary's Church of England VA Primary School, Welham Green
0.5 mi
Area grades2025
Inspected after Ofsted withdrew the single overall grade.
Brookmans Park Primary School
0.7 mi
Good
De Havilland Primary School
1.3 mi
Good
Links Hatfield Academy
1.3 mi
Good

3 of 10 nearby schools with published figures were oversubscribed in 2026 - demand, not a catchment.

View All Schools

Comparables

View All

31A Station Road
-
£460k
-
29 Station Road
-
£343k
-
31 Station Road
-
£360k
-
31 Station Road
-
£390k
-

Boundary data not available for this property

No registered title polygon, building footprint, or street match for this property yet.

Why: No HMLR INSPIRE / OSM footprint / OS Open USRN match for this UPRN

Source: HM Land Registry INSPIRE / OpenStreetMap / OS Open USRN