Morgans Orchard, Jenkins Lane, St. Leonards, Tring, HP23 6NW

UPRN:100081086456Bungalow Property4 bedsBuilt 1950-1966

FreeholdCouncil Tax: Band FEPC: D (57)

Data freshness:Listing· freshPlanning· 1mo agoOwnership· freshEPC· 6mo agoRisk· 5mo agoCrime· freshConnectivity· 1mo agoSchools· 1mo agoAmenities· 2mo agoArea· Census 2021Council Tax· 5mo ago

Morgans Orchard, Jenkins Lane, St. Leonards, Tring, HP23 6NW

HP Score

/ 100

Mixed

Verdict

yesterday

Verdict: INVESTIGATE, on a scale of Buy, Investigate, Avoid.
Mixed signals - investigate

Evidence

18 of 21 sources

Sale Estimate

£999,000

£949k - £1.05MHigh

Estimate

£999k

Range

£949k – £1.05M

Rent Estimate (pcm)

£2,250

£2k - £3k

Monthly

£2,250

Yield

2.70%

Verdict

Derived from HomePortfolio scores

Morgans Orchard earns an INVESTIGATE rating with HP Score 58/100. Investment score 54/100 reflects moderate fundamentals. Crime intensity is very low. Walkability is limited (0/100). Flood risk is not assessed: check the Environment Agency long-term flood map before offering. Tenure is freehold. Every figure here comes from the live HomePortfolio API; anything it does not publish is left out.

Key SourcesEPC RegisterPortal listingsOfcom Connected NationsOfcom mobile coverageMarket estimates (third-party AVM)Defra strategic noise mapping, England Round 4 (Contains Defra data © Crown copyright and database right 2023-2024, Open Government Licence v3.0)Walk ScoreONS Census 2021Police.ukHM Land Registry company ownershipHM Land Registry covenantsHM Land Registry Price PaidPlanIt / council planning portalsOverture Maps PlacesOfsted / DfE GIAS

HP Score

58/ 100

Mixed

Investment Score

54/ 100

Moderate

Crime Score

13/ 100

Low

Walkability

0/ 100

Low

Transit & Bike

Transit 3Bike 16

Walk Score, out of 100

Opportunity

Why this could be an opportunity

Low confidence1 independent sourceListing checked 11 Nov 2026

This rests largely on a single source. Treat the score as a prompt to investigate, not a conclusion.

Valuation edge2.5/15
claims [AVM -0.1% (HIGH), sold-comps +29.3%, £/sqft +29.3%] → measured edge +0.50pp of the ask; on later-registered sales an AVM discount carried no edge and a sold-evidence gap at most +0.5pp
Market estimate used (HIGH confidence) · snapshot 14 Nov 2026
- valuation_snapshotsestimate for 100081086456· as of 14 Nov 2026
- property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 7 comps, dispersion 10.5%· as of 12 Oct 2026
Rental economics0/40
gross yield 2.7%; range width penalty ×0.53
- valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 2250/mo (range 1900-2650)· as of 14 Nov 2026· verify before relying on this
Stress margin0/30
stressed cash flow -2,695/mo, -120% of rent (6.75% on a 75% loan; no service charge or ground rent disclosed); fails the stress - earns nothing
- underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advert· as of 11 Nov 2026
Seller motivationNot scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 116 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge
- portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_date· as of 11 Nov 2026
Risk & liquidity14.6/15
172 sales/12mo in area; valuation range width 10%
- property_intelligencetransactions_12mo

4 of 4 components scored. Ranks on gross yield, the stress margin, risk and disclosed facts. A pricing claim earns only its measured edge: today 0 for the market estimate and at most +0.5pp for sold evidence. The score itself is not yet checked against the outcomes of homes it scored.

Economics

What happens to your money

Price sensitivity

£750,000£1,150,000

The same scorer re-run at hypothetical asking prices, holding rent, comps and listing history constant. Not a prediction of what the seller would accept.

Your assumptions

Purchase price£1,000,000

At the asking price

Monthly rent£2,250/mo

Evidenced range £1,900-£2,650

Interest rate5.4%

Loan to value75%

Cash required: £345,050
Net cash flow: -£1,817/mo
Cash on cash: -6.3%
Score at this price: 17

After a 8% void allowance, 15% management and 10% maintenance. Lender coverage (rent ÷ interest): 0.67 - below the usual 1.25 test. These are your assumptions, not evidence: only the pre-filled rent and price come from the record.

Evidence

Where every number comes from

valuation_snapshotsestimate for 100081086456Valuation edge · as of 14 Nov 2026
property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 7 comps, dispersion 10.5%Valuation edge · as of 12 Oct 2026
valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 2250/mo (range 1900-2650)Rental economics · as of 14 Nov 2026 · verify before relying on this
underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advertStress margin · as of 11 Nov 2026
portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_dateSeller motivation · as of 11 Nov 2026

Risks

What could kill this deal

Score confidence is low
largely a single source - treat the number as a prompt, not a conclusion
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
rent estimate 2250/mo (range 1900-2650)
Seller motivation could not be scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 116 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge

Property risk deep-dive →

Plan

Before you offer

1. Get two written rental appraisals from local lettings agents.
The rent estimate rests on area-level evidence, not lettings on this street.
2. Treat the gap to the estimate as unproven - compare recent sold prices on the street yourself before pricing an offer around it.
On later completions, homes listed below their estimate sold at the same share of the asking price as the rest.
3. Commission a full structural survey, not a basic condition report.
The score prices market evidence, not the fabric of the building.

Every step above was generated from a specific gap or flag in the evidence - no generic advice, no invented tasks.

Valuation & Market

Sale Estimate£999,000

Rent Estimate (pcm)£2,250

Gross Yield2.70%

1y Growth-15.1%

3y Growth-4.7%

5y Growth-0.6%

10y Growth+1.0%

Last Sold Price-

View Market Details

Risk Overview

Flood RiskUnknown
SubsidenceModerate
RadonLow
MiningLow
LandslideLow
Air QualityLow
NoiseModerate

View Full Risk Report

Planning Activity

Recent Apps

4HP23 6NW

Approval Rate

0%12mo

Development

low

PL/26/08538/FA
Householder application for the construction of an attached carport to replace existing garage and a front porch canopy
Pending
PL/26/06345/FA
Proposed photovoltaic solar panels to both dwellings and ASHP (air source heat pump) to no. 17
Pending
PL/26/07985/CONDA
Application for approval of details subject to condition 4 (windows and doors) of listed building consent PL/25/2866/HB
Pending

View Planning Timeline

Ownership

Corporate Ownership63.4%
Overseas OwnershipNo
Lease Term Remaining-
CovenantsRestrictive
Lease TypeFreehold
Last Ownership Change-
SourceLand Registry

View Ownership Details

Connectivity

Broadband (Standard)

9 Mbps

Mobile 4G/5G Coverage

EEThreeO2Vodafone

EV Charger

PTAL Rating

View Connectivity Map

Area Profile

Median EarningsLocal authority£35,937

Population Density92 /km²

Owner Occupied86%

Age Distribution

0-15 16%16-64 57%65+ 27%

View Area Profile

Schools Nearby

Hawridge and Cholesbury Church of England School
1.8 mi
Area grades2024
Inspected after Ofsted withdrew the single overall grade.
Lee Common Church of England School
1.8 mi
Good
St Bartholomew's Church of England Voluntary Aided Primary School, Wigginton
2.4 mi
Area grades2024
Inspected after Ofsted withdrew the single overall grade.
Chartridge Combined School
2.4 mi
-

4 of 11 nearby schools with published figures were oversubscribed in 2026 - demand, not a catchment.

View All Schools

Comparables

View All

Jamanda Jenkins Lane
-
£760k
-
Rosehaven Jenkins Lane
-
£720k
-
Oaktrees Jenkins Lane
-
£1.07M
-
The Hermitage Jenkins Lane
-
£2.08M
-

Boundary data not available for this property

No registered title polygon, building footprint, or street match for this property yet.

Why: No HMLR INSPIRE / OSM footprint / OS Open USRN match for this UPRN

Source: HM Land Registry INSPIRE / OpenStreetMap / OS Open USRN