15 Heol Aelfryn, Pantyrawel, Bridgend, CF32 7LD

UPRN:100100507239Semi-Detached House3 bedsBuilt 1950-1966

FreeholdCouncil Tax: -EPC: C (71)

Data freshness:Listing· freshPrice Paid· freshPlanning· 4mo agoEPC· 4mo agoRisk· 2y agoConnectivity· 1mo agoSchools· 1mo agoAmenities· 2mo agoArea· Census 2021

15 Heol Aelfryn, Pantyrawel, Bridgend, CF32 7LD

HP Score

/ 100

Strong

Verdict

5 days ago

Verdict: INVESTIGATE, on a scale of Buy, Investigate, Avoid.
Strong fundamentals; flood risk not assessed

Evidence

15 of 21 sources

Sale Estimate

£153,000

£145k - £160kHigh

Estimate

£153k

Range

£145k – £160k

Rent Estimate (pcm)

£900

£850 - £950

Monthly

£900

Yield

7.71%

Verdict

Derived from HomePortfolio scores

15 Heol Aelfryn earns an INVESTIGATE rating with HP Score 75/100. Investment score 73/100 reflects strong fundamentals. Crime intensity is low. Flood risk is not assessed: check the Environment Agency long-term flood map before offering. Tenure is freehold. Every figure here comes from the live HomePortfolio API; anything it does not publish is left out.

Key SourcesEPC RegisterPortal listingsOfcom Connected NationsMarket estimates (third-party AVM)ONS Census 2021Police.ukHM Land Registry company ownershipHM Land Registry covenantsHM Land Registry Price PaidPlanIt / council planning portalsOverture Maps PlacesOfsted / DfE GIAS

HP Score

75/ 100

Strong

Investment Score

73/ 100

High

Crime Score

19/ 100

Moderate

Walkability

No data

Transit & Bike

No data

Opportunity

Why this could be an opportunity

Reduced confidence2 independent sourcesListing checked 2 Nov 2026

Fewer independent sources agree, or a component could not be scored.

Valuation edge2.5/15
claims [AVM +8.5% (HIGH), sold-comps +40.7%, £/sqft +40.6%] → measured edge +0.50pp of the ask; on later-registered sales an AVM discount carried no edge and a sold-evidence gap at most +0.5pp
Market estimate used (HIGH confidence) · snapshot 12 Oct 2026
- valuation_snapshotsestimate for 100100507239· as of 12 Oct 2026
- property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 10 comps, dispersion 14%· as of 31 Oct 2026
Rental economics21.2/40
gross yield 7.7%; range width penalty ×0.98
- valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 900/mo (range 850-950)· as of 12 Oct 2026· verify before relying on this
- listing_factslisting text signals condition works - budget before trusting any yield· as of 2 Nov 2026· verify before relying on this
Stress margin0/30
stressed cash flow -59/mo, -7% of rent (6.75% on a 75% loan; no service charge or ground rent disclosed); fails the stress - earns nothing
- underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advert· as of 2 Nov 2026
Seller motivationNot scored
context, not scored: 1 price cut(s), 159 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge
- portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_date· as of 2 Nov 2026
Risk & liquidity14.7/15
281 sales/12mo in area; valuation range width 10%
- property_intelligencetransactions_12mo

4 of 4 components scored. Ranks on gross yield, the stress margin, risk and disclosed facts. A pricing claim earns only its measured edge: today 0 for the market estimate and at most +0.5pp for sold evidence. The score itself is not yet checked against the outcomes of homes it scored.

Economics

What happens to your money

Price sensitivity

£105,000£161,000

The same scorer re-run at hypothetical asking prices, holding rent, comps and listing history constant. Not a prediction of what the seller would accept.

Your assumptions

Purchase price£140,000

At the asking price

Monthly rent£900/mo

Evidenced range £850-£950

Interest rate5.4%

Loan to value75%

Cash required: £43,600
Net cash flow: £151/mo
Cash on cash: 4.1%
Score at this price: 38

After a 8% void allowance, 15% management and 10% maintenance. Lender coverage (rent ÷ interest): 1.90 - clears the usual 1.25 test. These are your assumptions, not evidence: only the pre-filled rent and price come from the record.

Evidence

Where every number comes from

valuation_snapshotsestimate for 100100507239Valuation edge · as of 12 Oct 2026
property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 10 comps, dispersion 14%Valuation edge · as of 31 Oct 2026
valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 900/mo (range 850-950)Rental economics · as of 12 Oct 2026 · verify before relying on this
listing_factslisting text signals condition works - budget before trusting any yieldRental economics · as of 2 Nov 2026 · verify before relying on this
underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advertStress margin · as of 2 Nov 2026

Risks

What could kill this deal

Score confidence is reduced
fewer independent sources agree, or a component could not be scored
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
rent estimate 900/mo (range 850-950)
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
listing text signals condition works - budget before trusting any yield

Plan

Before you offer

1. Get two written rental appraisals from local lettings agents.
The rent estimate rests on area-level evidence, not lettings on this street.
2. Ask the agent why the price was reduced and whether a previous sale fell through.
1 price cut(s) recorded on the listing history.
3. Treat the gap to the estimate as unproven - compare recent sold prices on the street yourself before pricing an offer around it.
On later completions, homes listed below their estimate sold at the same share of the asking price as the rest.
4. Commission a full structural survey, not a basic condition report.
The score prices market evidence, not the fabric of the building.

Valuation & Market

Sale Estimate£153,000

Rent Estimate (pcm)£900

Gross Yield7.71%

1y Growth-

3y Growth+4.8%

5y Growth+5.3%

10y Growth+3.5%

Last Sold Price-

View Market Details

Risk Overview

Flood RiskUnknown
SubsidenceLow
RadonModerate
MiningUnknown
LandslideModerate
Air QualityLow
NoiseWithheld

View Full Risk Report

Planning Activity

Recent Apps

0CF32 7LD

Approval Rate

-12mo

Development

low

T/26/8/CON
Fell 2no. sycamore trees
Rejected
P/26/263/RLX
Variation of standard time condition to extend the planning permission of P/21/208/FUL (Extensions to provide 14 additional complex nursing care bedrooms; lifts and associated lounge space; replacement stretcher lift to main home and additional lounge/ancillary space)
Conditions
P/24/420/FUL
Double storey rear extension with balcony
Pending

View Planning Timeline