14 Guest Cottages, Dowlais, Merthyr Tydfil, CF48 3NT

UPRN:100100576602Mid Terrace House3 bedsBuilt 1900-1929

FreeholdCouncil Tax: Band AEPC: C (76)

Data freshness:Listing· freshPlanning· 4mo agoOwnership· 1mo agoRisk· 2y agoConnectivity· 1mo agoSchools· 1mo agoAmenities· 2mo agoArea· Census 2021

14 Guest Cottages, Dowlais, Merthyr Tydfil, CF48 3NT

HP Score

/ 100

Mixed

Verdict

5 days ago

Verdict: INVESTIGATE, on a scale of Buy, Investigate, Avoid.
Mixed signals - investigate

Evidence

17 of 21 sources

Sale Estimate

£142,000

£134k - £149kHigh

Estimate

£142k

Range

£134k – £149k

Rent Estimate (pcm)

£1,100

£1k - £1k

Monthly

£1,100

Yield

8.35%

Verdict

Derived from HomePortfolio scores

14 Guest Cottages earns an INVESTIGATE rating with HP Score 68/100. Investment score 58/100 reflects moderate fundamentals. Crime intensity is moderate. Flood risk is not assessed: check the Environment Agency long-term flood map before offering. Tenure is freehold. Every figure here comes from the live HomePortfolio API; anything it does not publish is left out.

Key SourcesEPC RegisterPortal listingsOfcom Connected NationsOfcom mobile coverageMarket estimates (third-party AVM)HM Land Registry sales matched to addressONS Census 2021Police.ukHM Land Registry company ownershipHM Land Registry covenantsHM Land Registry Price PaidPlanIt / council planning portalsOverture Maps PlacesOfsted / DfE GIAS

HP Score

68/ 100

Mixed

Investment Score

58/ 100

Moderate

Crime Score

38/ 100

Elevated

Walkability

No data

Transit & Bike

No data

Opportunity

Why this could be an opportunity

Reduced confidence2 independent sourcesListing checked 4 Nov 2026

Fewer independent sources agree, or a component could not be scored.

Valuation edge-1.6/15
claims [AVM -11.3% (HIGH)] → measured edge -0.33pp of the ask; on later-registered sales an AVM discount carried no edge and a sold-evidence gap at most +0.5pp; asking more than 10% above the estimate (measured -0.33pp)
Market estimate used (HIGH confidence) · snapshot 10 Oct 2026
- valuation_snapshotsestimate for 100100576602· as of 10 Oct 2026
Rental economics26.8/40
gross yield 8.4%; range width penalty ×1.00
- valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 1100/mo (range 1050-1150)· as of 10 Oct 2026· verify before relying on this
Stress margin1.1/30
stressed cash flow +12/mo, +1% of rent (6.75% on a 75% loan; no service charge or ground rent disclosed); passes the stress
- underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advert· as of 4 Nov 2026
Seller motivationNot scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 60 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge
- portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_date· as of 4 Nov 2026
Risk & liquidity14.5/15
223 sales/12mo in area; valuation range width 11%
- property_intelligencetransactions_12mo

4 of 4 components scored. Ranks on gross yield, the stress margin, risk and disclosed facts. A pricing claim earns only its measured edge: today 0 for the market estimate and at most +0.5pp for sold evidence. The score itself is not yet checked against the outcomes of homes it scored.

Economics

What happens to your money

Price sensitivityScores 70+ up to £118,500

£118,500£181,500

The same scorer re-run at hypothetical asking prices, holding rent, comps and listing history constant. Not a prediction of what the seller would accept.

Your assumptions

Purchase price£158,000

At the asking price

Monthly rent£1,100/mo

Evidenced range £1,050-£1,150

Interest rate5.4%

Loan to value75%

Cash required: £49,360
Net cash flow: £228/mo
Cash on cash: 5.5%
Score at this price: 41

After a 8% void allowance, 15% management and 10% maintenance. Lender coverage (rent ÷ interest): 2.06 - clears the usual 1.25 test. These are your assumptions, not evidence: only the pre-filled rent and price come from the record.

Evidence

Where every number comes from

valuation_snapshotsestimate for 100100576602Valuation edge · as of 10 Oct 2026
valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 1100/mo (range 1050-1150)Rental economics · as of 10 Oct 2026 · verify before relying on this
underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advertStress margin · as of 4 Nov 2026
portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_dateSeller motivation · as of 4 Nov 2026
property_intelligencetransactions_12moRisk & liquidity

Sold comparables in depth

Risks

What could kill this deal

Score confidence is reduced
fewer independent sources agree, or a component could not be scored
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
rent estimate 1100/mo (range 1050-1150)
Seller motivation could not be scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 60 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge

Property risk deep-dive →

Plan

Before you offer

1. Get two written rental appraisals from local lettings agents.
The rent estimate rests on area-level evidence, not lettings on this street.
2. Set your walk-away price before viewing - above £118,500 the deal stops scoring well.
Computed by re-running the score at higher prices.
3. Commission a full structural survey, not a basic condition report.
The score prices market evidence, not the fabric of the building.

Every step above was generated from a specific gap or flag in the evidence - no generic advice, no invented tasks.

Valuation & Market

Sale Estimate£142,000

Rent Estimate (pcm)£1,100

Gross Yield8.35%

1y Growth+56.0%

3y Growth+1.1%

5y Growth+2.1%

10y Growth+4.8%

Last Sold Price£87,000 (2020-08-19)

View Market Details

Risk Overview

Flood RiskUnknown
SubsidenceLow
RadonModerate
MiningLow
LandslideSignificant
Air QualityLow
NoiseWithheld

View Full Risk Report

Planning Activity

Recent Apps

0CF48 3NT

Approval Rate

-12mo

Development

low

P/26/0237
Variation of condition 2 of outline planning permission P/16/0077 to extend the period of time for the submission of the reserved matters for a residential scheme comprising 21 self build plots with associated highway works.
Pending
P/26/0236
Change of use from 4 bedroom dwelling to 4 affordable self contained flats, to include rear extension and refurbishment works.
Pending
P/26/0220
Discharge of conditions 3,4,5,6,8 &10 of planning permission P/22/0131
Pending

View Planning Timeline