53B Caerau Road, Newport, NP20 4HH

UPRN:100100653526Converted Flat3 bedsBuilt 1900-1929

LeaseholdCouncil Tax: Band CEPC: D (68)

Data freshness:Listing· freshOwnership· 1mo agoEPC· 3mo agoRisk· 2y agoConnectivity· 1mo agoSchools· 1mo agoAmenities· 2mo agoArea· Census 2021Council Tax· 1mo ago

HP Score

/ 100

Mixed

Verdict

yesterday

Verdict: INVESTIGATE, on a scale of Buy, Investigate, Avoid.
Mixed signals - investigate

Evidence

18 of 21 sources

Sale Estimate

£233,000

£221k - £245kHigh

Estimate

£233k

Range

£221k – £245k

Rent Estimate (pcm)

£1,050

£950 - £1k

Monthly

£1,050

Yield

8.40%

Verdict

Derived from HomePortfolio scores

53B Caerau Road earns an INVESTIGATE rating with HP Score 67/100. Investment score 72/100 reflects strong fundamentals. Crime intensity is elevated. Flood risk is not assessed: check the Environment Agency long-term flood map before offering. Tenure is leasehold. Every figure here comes from the live HomePortfolio API; anything it does not publish is left out.

Key SourcesEPC RegisterPortal listingsOfcom Connected NationsOfcom mobile coverageMarket estimates (third-party AVM)HM Land Registry sales matched to addressONS Census 2021Police.ukHM Land Registry company ownershipHM Land Registry covenantsHM Land Registry leasesHM Land Registry Price PaidPlanIt / council planning portalsOverture Maps PlacesOfsted / DfE GIAS

HP Score

67/ 100

Mixed

Investment Score

72/ 100

High

Crime Score

61/ 100

Elevated

Walkability

No data

Transit & Bike

No data

Opportunity

Why this could be an opportunity

Low confidence1 independent sourceLead to verifyListing checked 4 Nov 2026

This rests largely on a single source. Treat the score as a prompt to investigate, not a conclusion.

Check before relying on this score: the estimate sits 36% above the ask. It ranks after every home whose inputs are verified.

Valuation edge2.5/15
claims [AVM +35.6% (HIGH), sold-comps +40.7%, £/sqft +40.6%] → measured edge +0.50pp of the ask; on later-registered sales an AVM discount carried no edge and a sold-evidence gap at most +0.5pp
Market estimate used (HIGH confidence) · snapshot 9 Nov 2026
- valuation_snapshotsestimate for 100100653526· as of 9 Nov 2026
- property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 9 comps, dispersion 14%· as of 9 Nov 2026
Rental economics24.9/40
gross yield 8.4%; range width penalty ×0.91; the estimate this rent rides on sits 36% above the ask - check the rent describes the advertised home
- valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 1050/mo (range 950-1100)· as of 9 Nov 2026· verify before relying on this
- valuation_snapshotssale estimate 36% above the ask on the same snapshot - verify the rent describes this home· as of 9 Nov 2026· verify before relying on this
- listing_factslisting text signals condition works - budget before trusting any yield· as of 4 Nov 2026· verify before relying on this
Stress margin0.9/30
stressed cash flow +9/mo, +1% of rent (6.75% on a 75% loan; no service charge or ground rent disclosed); passes the stress
- underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advert· as of 4 Nov 2026
Seller motivationNot scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 143 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge
- portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_date· as of 4 Nov 2026
Risk & liquidity14.6/15
489 sales/12mo in area; valuation range width 10%
- property_intelligencetransactions_12mo

4 of 4 components scored. Ranks on gross yield, the stress margin, risk and disclosed facts. A pricing claim earns only its measured edge: today 0 for the market estimate and at most +0.5pp for sold evidence. The score itself is not yet checked against the outcomes of homes it scored.

Economics

What happens to your money

Price sensitivity

£120,000£172,500

The same scorer re-run at hypothetical asking prices, holding rent, comps and listing history constant. Not a prediction of what the seller would accept.

Your assumptions

Purchase price£150,000

At the asking price

Monthly rent£1,050/mo

Evidenced range £950-£1,100

Interest rate5.4%

Loan to value75%

Cash required: £46,800
Net cash flow: £221/mo
Cash on cash: 5.7%
Score at this price: 43

After a 8% void allowance, 15% management and 10% maintenance. Lender coverage (rent ÷ interest): 2.07 - clears the usual 1.25 test. These are your assumptions, not evidence: only the pre-filled rent and price come from the record.

Evidence

Where every number comes from

valuation_snapshotsestimate for 100100653526Valuation edge · as of 9 Nov 2026
property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 9 comps, dispersion 14%Valuation edge · as of 9 Nov 2026
valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 1050/mo (range 950-1100)Rental economics · as of 9 Nov 2026 · verify before relying on this
valuation_snapshotssale estimate 36% above the ask on the same snapshot - verify the rent describes this homeRental economics · as of 9 Nov 2026 · verify before relying on this
listing_factslisting text signals condition works - budget before trusting any yield

Risks

What could kill this deal

Score confidence is low
largely a single source - treat the number as a prompt, not a conclusion
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
rent estimate 1050/mo (range 950-1100)
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
sale estimate 36% above the ask on the same snapshot - verify the rent describes this home

Plan

Before you offer

1. Get two written rental appraisals from local lettings agents.
The market estimate this rent rides on sits far above the asking price, so the rent may describe a different home.
2. Treat the gap to the estimate as unproven - compare recent sold prices on the street yourself before pricing an offer around it.
On later completions, homes listed below their estimate sold at the same share of the asking price as the rest.
3. Commission a full structural survey, not a basic condition report.
The score prices market evidence, not the fabric of the building.

Every step above was generated from a specific gap or flag in the evidence - no generic advice, no invented tasks.

Valuation & Market

Sale Estimate£233,000

Rent Estimate (pcm)£1,050

Gross Yield8.40%

1y Growth-37.1%

3y Growth+4.4%

5y Growth+2.6%

10y Growth+3.5%

Last Sold Price£165,000 (2022-03-02)

View Market Details

Risk Overview

Flood RiskUnknown
SubsidenceLow
RadonLow
MiningLow
LandslideModerate
Air QualityLow
NoiseWithheld

View Full Risk Report

Planning Activity

Recent Apps

4NP20 4HH

Approval Rate

33.3%12mo

Development

low

26/0846
DEMOLITION OF EXISTING RETAINING WALL, WIDENING OF DRIVEWAY TO CREATE A LARGER PARKING AREA AND CONSTRUCTION OF NEW RETAINING WALL
Pending
26/0842
NMA APPLICATION TO VARY CONDITION 1 (APPROVED PLANS) OF 24/0264 CONVERSION AND CHANGE OF USE OF 2NO. SEMI-DETACHED PROPERTIES FROM C3 (DWELLINGHOUSES) TO C2 (RESIDENTIAL INSTITUTIONS) INCLUDING EXTERNAL ALTERNATIONS TO PROVIDE 6NO. MOVE ON APARTMENTS AND ANCILLARY COMMUNAL SPACES
Pending
26/0837
CONSTRUCTION OF A DROPPED KERB TO CREATE A NEW VEHICULAR ACCESS AND DRIVEWAY
Pending

View Planning Timeline