The Lodge, Cwmynysminton Road, Aberdare, CF44 0UP

UPRN:100100697221-Beds -Built -

Tenure: -Council Tax: -EPC: -

Data freshness:Listing· freshPrice Paid· freshPlanning· 4mo agoRisk· 2y agoConnectivity· 1mo agoAmenities· 1mo agoArea· Census 2021

The Lodge, Cwmynysminton Road, Aberdare, CF44 0UP

HP Score

/ 100

Strong

Verdict

2 days ago

Verdict: INVESTIGATE, on a scale of Buy, Investigate, Avoid.
Strong fundamentals; flood risk not assessed

Evidence

13 of 21 sources

Sale Estimate

£547,000

£520k - £575kHigh

Estimate

£547k

Range

£520k – £575k

Rent Estimate (pcm)

£2,400

£2k - £3k

Monthly

£2,400

Yield

5.24%

Verdict

Derived from HomePortfolio scores

The Lodge earns an INVESTIGATE rating with HP Score 78/100. Investment score 65/100 reflects moderate fundamentals. Crime intensity is low. Flood risk is not assessed: check the Environment Agency long-term flood map before offering. Every figure here comes from the live HomePortfolio API; anything it does not publish is left out.

Key SourcesPortal listingsOfcom Connected NationsMarket estimates (third-party AVM)ONS Census 2021Police.ukHM Land Registry company ownershipHM Land Registry covenantsHM Land Registry Price PaidPlanIt / council planning portalsOverture Maps PlacesOfsted / DfE GIAS

HP Score

78/ 100

Strong

Investment Score

65/ 100

Moderate

Crime Score

20/ 100

Moderate

Walkability

No data

Transit & Bike

No data

Opportunity

Why this could be an opportunity

Low confidence0 independent sourcesListing checked 2 Nov 2026

This rests largely on a single source. Treat the score as a prompt to investigate, not a conclusion.

Valuation edge0/15
claims [AVM -0.5% (HIGH)] → measured edge +0.00pp of the ask; on later-registered sales an AVM discount carried no edge and a sold-evidence gap at most +0.5pp
Market estimate used (HIGH confidence) · snapshot 12 Oct 2026
- valuation_snapshotsestimate for 100100697221· as of 12 Oct 2026
Rental economics1.6/40
gross yield 5.2%; range width penalty ×0.87
- valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 2400/mo (range 2200-2600)· as of 12 Oct 2026· verify before relying on this
Stress margin0/30
stressed cash flow -686/mo, -29% of rent (6.75% on a 75% loan; no service charge or ground rent disclosed); fails the stress - earns nothing
- underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advert· as of 2 Nov 2026
Seller motivationNot scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 106 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge
- portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_date· as of 2 Nov 2026
Risk & liquidity14.6/15
428 sales/12mo in area; valuation range width 10%
- property_intelligencetransactions_12mo

4 of 4 components scored. Ranks on gross yield, the stress margin, risk and disclosed facts. A pricing claim earns only its measured edge: today 0 for the market estimate and at most +0.5pp for sold evidence. The score itself is not yet checked against the outcomes of homes it scored.

Economics

What happens to your money

Price sensitivity

£412,500£632,500

The same scorer re-run at hypothetical asking prices, holding rent, comps and listing history constant. Not a prediction of what the seller would accept.

Your assumptions

Purchase price£549,995

At the asking price

Monthly rent£2,400/mo

Evidenced range £2,200-£2,600

Interest rate5.4%

Loan to value75%

Cash required: £183,799
Net cash flow: -£195/mo
Cash on cash: -1.3%
Score at this price: 16

After a 8% void allowance, 15% management and 10% maintenance. Lender coverage (rent ÷ interest): 1.29 - clears the usual 1.25 test. These are your assumptions, not evidence: only the pre-filled rent and price come from the record.

Evidence

Where every number comes from

valuation_snapshotsestimate for 100100697221Valuation edge · as of 12 Oct 2026
valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 2400/mo (range 2200-2600)Rental economics · as of 12 Oct 2026 · verify before relying on this
underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advertStress margin · as of 2 Nov 2026
portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_dateSeller motivation · as of 2 Nov 2026
property_intelligencetransactions_12moRisk & liquidity

Sold comparables in depth

Risks

What could kill this deal

Score confidence is low
largely a single source - treat the number as a prompt, not a conclusion
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
rent estimate 2400/mo (range 2200-2600)
Seller motivation could not be scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 106 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge

Property risk deep-dive →

Plan

Before you offer

1. Get two written rental appraisals from local lettings agents.
The rent estimate rests on area-level evidence, not lettings on this street.
2. Commission a full structural survey, not a basic condition report.
The score prices market evidence, not the fabric of the building.

Every step above was generated from a specific gap or flag in the evidence - no generic advice, no invented tasks.

Valuation & Market

Sale Estimate£547,000

Rent Estimate (pcm)£2,400

Gross Yield5.24%

1y Growth-

3y Growth+1.8%

5y Growth+4.8%

10y Growth+4.7%

Last Sold Price-

View Market Details

Risk Overview

Flood RiskUnknown
SubsidenceLow
RadonLow
MiningLow
LandslideSignificant
Air QualityLow
NoiseWithheld

View Full Risk Report

Planning Activity

Recent Apps

0CF44 0UP

Approval Rate

-12mo

Development

low

26/0863/CPRO
Proposed external lift and store shed.
Pending
26/0823/FUL
Retrospective planning permission is sought for the retention of a rear dormer loft extension, together with the retention of a boundary fence measuring approximately 2m to 2.2m in height.
Pending
26/0653/TPO
Felling, maintenance work, reduction, thinning as per attached tree report
Pending

View Planning Timeline