202 Fernhill, Mountain Ash, CF45 3EH

UPRN:100100711837End Terrace House3 bedsBuilt 1950-1966

FreeholdCouncil Tax: Band AEPC: C (73)

Data freshness:Listing· freshPrice Paid· freshPlanning· 4mo agoEPC· 3mo agoRisk· 2y agoConnectivity· 1mo agoSchools· 1mo agoAmenities· 1mo agoArea· Census 2021Council Tax· 4mo ago

HP Score

/ 100

Mixed

Verdict

4 days ago

Verdict: INVESTIGATE, on a scale of Buy, Investigate, Avoid.
Mixed signals - investigate

Evidence

17 of 21 sources

Sale Estimate

£106,000

£85k - £127kLow

Estimate

£106k

Range

£85k – £127k

Rent Estimate (pcm)

£800

£750 - £850

Monthly

£800

Yield

9.60%

Verdict

Derived from HomePortfolio scores

202 Fernhill earns an INVESTIGATE rating with HP Score 69/100. Investment score 69/100 reflects moderate fundamentals. Crime intensity is moderate. Flood risk is not assessed: check the Environment Agency long-term flood map before offering. Tenure is freehold. Every figure here comes from the live HomePortfolio API; anything it does not publish is left out.

Key SourcesEPC RegisterPortal listingsOfcom Connected NationsOfcom mobile coverageMarket estimates (third-party AVM)HM Land Registry sales matched to addressONS Census 2021Police.ukHM Land Registry company ownershipHM Land Registry covenantsHM Land Registry Price PaidPlanIt / council planning portalsOverture Maps PlacesOfsted / DfE GIAS

HP Score

69/ 100

Mixed

Investment Score

69/ 100

Moderate

Crime Score

39/ 100

Elevated

Walkability

No data

Transit & Bike

No data

Opportunity

Why this could be an opportunity

Reduced confidence2 independent sourcesListing checked 2 Nov 2026

Fewer independent sources agree, or a component could not be scored.

Valuation edge0/15
claims [sold-comps -9.9%, £/sqft -9.6%] → measured edge +0.00pp of the ask; on later-registered sales an AVM discount carried no edge and a sold-evidence gap at most +0.5pp; AVM excluded (estimate confidence LOW below scoring floor)
estimate confidence LOW below scoring floor · snapshot 12 Oct 2026
- property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 7 comps, dispersion 12.8%· as of 3 Nov 2026
Rental economics35/40
gross yield 9.6%; range width penalty ×0.95
- valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 800/mo (range 750-850)· as of 12 Oct 2026· verify before relying on this
Stress margin4.5/30
stressed cash flow +36/mo, +5% of rent (6.75% on a 75% loan; no service charge or ground rent disclosed); passes the stress
- underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advert· as of 2 Nov 2026
Seller motivationNot scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 87 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge
- portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_date· as of 2 Nov 2026
Risk & liquidity9.3/15
207 sales/12mo in area; valuation range width 40%
- property_intelligencetransactions_12mo

4 of 4 components scored. Ranks on gross yield, the stress margin, risk and disclosed facts. A pricing claim earns only its measured edge: today 0 for the market estimate and at most +0.5pp for sold evidence. The score itself is not yet checked against the outcomes of homes it scored.

Economics

What happens to your money

Price sensitivity

£75,000£115,000

The same scorer re-run at hypothetical asking prices, holding rent, comps and listing history constant. Not a prediction of what the seller would accept.

Your assumptions

Purchase price£100,000

At the asking price

Monthly rent£800/mo

Evidenced range £750-£850

Interest rate5.4%

Loan to value75%

Cash required: £31,300
Net cash flow: £216/mo
Cash on cash: 8.3%
Score at this price: 49

After a 8% void allowance, 15% management and 10% maintenance. Lender coverage (rent ÷ interest): 2.37 - clears the usual 1.25 test. These are your assumptions, not evidence: only the pre-filled rent and price come from the record.

Evidence

Where every number comes from

property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 7 comps, dispersion 12.8%Valuation edge · as of 3 Nov 2026
valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 800/mo (range 750-850)Rental economics · as of 12 Oct 2026 · verify before relying on this
underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advertStress margin · as of 2 Nov 2026
portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_dateSeller motivation · as of 2 Nov 2026
property_intelligencetransactions_12moRisk & liquidity

Sold comparables in depth

Risks

What could kill this deal

Score confidence is reduced
fewer independent sources agree, or a component could not be scored
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
rent estimate 800/mo (range 750-850)
Seller motivation could not be scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 87 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge

Property risk deep-dive →

Plan

Before you offer

1. Get two written rental appraisals from local lettings agents.
The rent estimate rests on area-level evidence, not lettings on this street.
2. Commission a full structural survey, not a basic condition report.
The score prices market evidence, not the fabric of the building.

Every step above was generated from a specific gap or flag in the evidence - no generic advice, no invented tasks.

Valuation & Market

Sale Estimate£106,000

Rent Estimate (pcm)£800

Gross Yield9.60%

1y Growth-

3y Growth+6.3%

5y Growth+6.8%

10y Growth+5.6%

Last Sold Price£75,000 (2022-06-24)

View Market Details

Risk Overview

Flood RiskUnknown
SubsidenceLow
RadonLow
MiningLow
LandslideSignificant
Air QualityLow
NoiseWithheld

View Full Risk Report

Planning Activity

Recent Apps

0CF45 3EH

Approval Rate

-12mo

Development

low

26/0906/FUL
Installation of an Air to Water heat pump, to replace a gas boiler for water & central heating
Pending
26/0905/FUL
Proposed single storey rear extension and division of an existing dwelling into two separate dwellings.
Pending
26/0137/RVOC
Variation of condition 7 and removal of conditions 5 and 6 of previous permission 25/1064/FUL
Decided

View Planning Timeline