8 The Willows, Croesyceiliog, Cwmbran, NP44 2LY

UPRN:100100807834Purpose Built Flat2 bedsBuilt 1983-1990

LeaseholdCouncil Tax: -EPC: C (72)

Data freshness:Listing· freshPlanning· 4mo agoOwnership· freshEPC· 6mo agoRisk· 2y agoCrime· freshConnectivity· 1mo agoSchools· 1mo agoAmenities· 2mo agoArea· Census 2021

8 The Willows, Croesyceiliog, Cwmbran, NP44 2LY

HP Score

/ 100

Strong

Verdict

yesterday

Verdict: INVESTIGATE, on a scale of Buy, Investigate, Avoid.
Strong fundamentals; flood risk not assessed

Evidence

17 of 21 sources

Sale Estimate

£156,000

£125k - £187kLow

Estimate

£156k

Range

£125k – £187k

Rent Estimate (pcm)

£1,200

£1k - £1k

Monthly

£1,200

Yield

10.29%

Verdict

Derived from HomePortfolio scores

8 The Willows earns an INVESTIGATE rating with HP Score 80/100. Investment score 74/100 reflects strong fundamentals. Crime intensity is low. Flood risk is not assessed: check the Environment Agency long-term flood map before offering. Tenure is leasehold. Every figure here comes from the live HomePortfolio API; anything it does not publish is left out.

Key SourcesEPC RegisterPortal listingsOfcom Connected NationsOfcom mobile coverageMarket estimates (third-party AVM)HM Land Registry sales matched to addressONS Census 2021Police.ukHM Land Registry covenantsHM Land Registry leasesHM Land Registry Price PaidPlanIt / council planning portalsOverture Maps PlacesOfsted / DfE GIAS

HP Score

80/ 100

Strong

Investment Score

74/ 100

High

Crime Score

23/ 100

Moderate

Walkability

No data

Transit & Bike

No data

Opportunity

Why this could be an opportunity

Low confidence1 independent sourceLead to verifyListing checked 11 Nov 2026

This rests largely on a single source. Treat the score as a prompt to investigate, not a conclusion.

Check before relying on this score: leasehold with no service charge disclosed - the stress test assumes GBP 0. It ranks after every home whose inputs are verified.

Valuation edge0/15
claims [sold-comps -2.9%, £/sqft -3.1%] → measured edge +0.00pp of the ask; on later-registered sales an AVM discount carried no edge and a sold-evidence gap at most +0.5pp; AVM excluded (estimate confidence LOW below scoring floor)
estimate confidence LOW below scoring floor · snapshot 14 Nov 2026
- property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 12 comps, dispersion 11%· as of 31 Oct 2026
Rental economics38/40
gross yield 10.3%; range width penalty ×0.95
- valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 1200/mo (range 1150-1300)· as of 14 Nov 2026· verify before relying on this
- listing_factslisting text signals condition works - budget before trusting any yield· as of 11 Nov 2026· verify before relying on this
Stress margin13.4/30
stressed cash flow +161/mo, +13% of rent (6.75% on a 75% loan; no service charge or ground rent disclosed); passes the stress; leasehold with no service charge disclosed - the stress assumes GBP 0
- underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advert· as of 11 Nov 2026· verify before relying on this
Seller motivationNot scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 44 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge
- portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_date· as of 11 Nov 2026
Risk & liquidity9.3/15
377 sales/12mo in area; valuation range width 40%
- property_intelligencetransactions_12mo

4 of 4 components scored. Ranks on gross yield, the stress margin, risk and disclosed facts. A pricing claim earns only its measured edge: today 0 for the market estimate and at most +0.5pp for sold evidence. The score itself is not yet checked against the outcomes of homes it scored.

Economics

What happens to your money

Price sensitivityScores 70+ up to £112,000

£105,000£161,000

The same scorer re-run at hypothetical asking prices, holding rent, comps and listing history constant. Not a prediction of what the seller would accept.

Your assumptions

Purchase price£140,000

At the asking price

Monthly rent£1,200/mo

Evidenced range £1,150-£1,300

Interest rate5.4%

Loan to value75%

Cash required: £43,600
Net cash flow: £358/mo
Cash on cash: 9.9%
Score at this price: 61

After a 8% void allowance, 15% management and 10% maintenance. Lender coverage (rent ÷ interest): 2.54 - clears the usual 1.25 test. These are your assumptions, not evidence: only the pre-filled rent and price come from the record.

Evidence

Where every number comes from

property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 12 comps, dispersion 11%Valuation edge · as of 31 Oct 2026
valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 1200/mo (range 1150-1300)Rental economics · as of 14 Nov 2026 · verify before relying on this
listing_factslisting text signals condition works - budget before trusting any yieldRental economics · as of 11 Nov 2026 · verify before relying on this
underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advertStress margin · as of 11 Nov 2026 · verify before relying on this
portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_date

Risks

What could kill this deal

Score confidence is low
largely a single source - treat the number as a prompt, not a conclusion
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
rent estimate 1200/mo (range 1150-1300)
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
listing text signals condition works - budget before trusting any yield

Plan

Before you offer

1. Get two written rental appraisals from local lettings agents.
The rent estimate rests on area-level evidence, not lettings on this street.
2. Set your walk-away price before viewing - above £112,000 the deal stops scoring well.
Computed by re-running the score at higher prices.
3. Commission a full structural survey, not a basic condition report.
The score prices market evidence, not the fabric of the building.

Every step above was generated from a specific gap or flag in the evidence - no generic advice, no invented tasks.

Valuation & Market

Sale Estimate£156,000

Rent Estimate (pcm)£1,200

Gross Yield10.29%

1y Growth-

3y Growth-0.2%

5y Growth+0.9%

10y Growth+4.8%

Last Sold Price£51,000 (2000-11-24)

View Market Details

Risk Overview

Flood RiskUnknown
SubsidenceLow
RadonModerate
MiningLow
LandslideSignificant
Air QualityLow
NoiseWithheld

View Full Risk Report

Planning Activity

Recent Apps

0NP44 2LY

Approval Rate

-12mo

Development

low

26/P/0523/TPO
Carry out crown reduction work to a TPO oak tree. reduce crown by 2.5m
Pending
26/P/0527/FUL
Change of use from A1 to flexible use for either A1 or A3
Pending
26/P/0490/FUL
Proposed two storey rear extension and conversion of upper floor from shop store to one bedroom flat
Pending

View Planning Timeline