Flat 409, The Birchin, 1 Joiner Street, Manchester, M4 1PH

UPRN:10012202465Flat/Maisonette1 bedsBuilt 2003-2006

LeaseholdCouncil Tax: -EPC: C (80)

Data freshness:Listing· freshPlanning· 4mo agoOwnership· freshEPC· 6mo agoRisk· 5mo agoConnectivity· 1mo agoSchools· 1mo agoAmenities· 2mo agoArea· Census 2021

Flat 409, The Birchin, 1 Joiner Street, Manchester, M4 1PH

HP Score

/ 100

Strong

Verdict

4 days ago

Verdict: INVESTIGATE, on a scale of Buy, Investigate, Avoid.
Strong fundamentals; flood risk not assessed

Evidence

19 of 21 sources

Sale Estimate

£169,000

£161k - £178kHigh

Estimate

£169k

Range

£161k – £178k

Rent Estimate (pcm)

£1,000

£950 - £1k

Monthly

£1,000

Yield

8.00%

Verdict

Derived from HomePortfolio scores

Flat 409 earns an INVESTIGATE rating with HP Score 87/100. Investment score 71/100 reflects strong fundamentals. Walkability is excellent (99/100). Flood risk is not assessed: check the Environment Agency long-term flood map before offering. Tenure is leasehold. Every figure here comes from the live HomePortfolio API; anything it does not publish is left out.

Key SourcesEPC RegisterPortal listingsOfcom Connected NationsMarket estimates (third-party AVM)HM Land Registry sales matched to addressDefra strategic noise mapping, England Round 4 (Contains Defra data © Crown copyright and database right 2023-2024, Open Government Licence v3.0)Walk ScoreONS Census 2021Police.ukHM Land Registry company ownershipHM Land Registry covenantsHM Land Registry leasesHM Land Registry Price PaidPlanIt / council planning portalsOverture Maps PlacesOfsted / DfE GIAS

HP Score

87/ 100

Strong

Investment Score

71/ 100

High

Crime Score

No data

Walkability

99/ 100

Excellent

Transit & Bike

Transit 100Bike 55

Walk Score, out of 100

Opportunity

Why this could be an opportunity

Low confidence1 independent sourceListing checked 9 Nov 2026

This rests largely on a single source. Treat the score as a prompt to investigate, not a conclusion.

Valuation edge0/15
claims [AVM +11.2% (HIGH)] → measured edge +0.00pp of the ask; on later-registered sales an AVM discount carried no edge and a sold-evidence gap at most +0.5pp
Market estimate used (HIGH confidence) · snapshot 9 Nov 2026
- valuation_snapshotsestimate for 10012202465· as of 9 Nov 2026
Rental economics24/40
gross yield 8.0%; range width penalty ×1.00
- valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 1000/mo (range 950-1050)· as of 9 Nov 2026· verify before relying on this
Stress margin0/30
stressed cash flow -155/mo, -15% of rent (6.75% on a 75% loan; disclosed service charge and ground rent); fails the stress - earns nothing
- listing_factsservice charge / ground rent from the advert· as of 9 Nov 2026
Seller motivationNot scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 65 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge
- portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_date· as of 9 Nov 2026
Risk & liquidity14.6/15
279 sales/12mo in area; valuation range width 10%
- property_intelligencetransactions_12mo

4 of 4 components scored. Ranks on gross yield, the stress margin, risk and disclosed facts. A pricing claim earns only its measured edge: today 0 for the market estimate and at most +0.5pp for sold evidence. The score itself is not yet checked against the outcomes of homes it scored.

Economics

What happens to your money

Price sensitivity

£112,500£172,500

The same scorer re-run at hypothetical asking prices, holding rent, comps and listing history constant. Not a prediction of what the seller would accept.

Your assumptions

Purchase price£150,000

At the asking price

Monthly rent£1,000/mo

Evidenced range £950-£1,050

Interest rate5.4%

Loan to value75%

Cash required: £46,800
Net cash flow: £186/mo
Cash on cash: 4.8%
Score at this price: 39

After a 8% void allowance, 15% management and 10% maintenance. Lender coverage (rent ÷ interest): 1.98 - clears the usual 1.25 test. These are your assumptions, not evidence: only the pre-filled rent and price come from the record.

Evidence

Where every number comes from

valuation_snapshotsestimate for 10012202465Valuation edge · as of 9 Nov 2026
valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 1000/mo (range 950-1050)Rental economics · as of 9 Nov 2026 · verify before relying on this
listing_factsservice charge / ground rent from the advertStress margin · as of 9 Nov 2026
portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_dateSeller motivation · as of 9 Nov 2026
property_intelligencetransactions_12moRisk & liquidity

Sold comparables in depth

Risks

What could kill this deal

Score confidence is low
largely a single source - treat the number as a prompt, not a conclusion
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
rent estimate 1000/mo (range 950-1050)
Seller motivation could not be scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 65 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge

Property risk deep-dive →

Plan

Before you offer

1. Get two written rental appraisals from local lettings agents.
The rent estimate rests on area-level evidence, not lettings on this street.
2. Treat the gap to the estimate as unproven - compare recent sold prices on the street yourself before pricing an offer around it.
On later completions, homes listed below their estimate sold at the same share of the asking price as the rest.
3. Commission a full structural survey, not a basic condition report.
The score prices market evidence, not the fabric of the building.

Every step above was generated from a specific gap or flag in the evidence - no generic advice, no invented tasks.

Valuation & Market

Sale Estimate£169,000

Rent Estimate (pcm)£1,000

Gross Yield8.00%

1y Growth-

3y Growth-9.8%

5y Growth-3.1%

10y Growth+3.3%

Last Sold Price£165,000 (2019-11-15)

View Market Details

Risk Overview

Flood RiskUnknown
SubsidenceLow
RadonLow
MiningUnknown
LandslideLow
Air QualityLow
NoiseModerate

View Full Risk Report

Planning Activity

Recent Apps

0M4 1PH

Approval Rate

-12mo

Development

low

PLA-2026-001835
Alterations to shopfront including replacement of door.
Pending
PLA-2026-002145
Listed Building Consent for installation of fire-resistant partitions and 4no. doors to link bridges.
Pending
OTH-2026-002259
Discharge of Conditions 3 (Signage), 5 (Wall Repairs) and 6 (Plumbing) attached Listed Building Consent application PLA-2026-000757.
Pending

View Planning Timeline