Cefn Y Marial, Saron, Denbigh, LL16 4TH

UPRN:10012912917Detached House6 bedsBuilt before 1900

FreeholdCouncil Tax: Band GEPC: F (33)

Data freshness:Listing· freshPrice Paid· freshPlanning· 5mo agoEPC· 4mo agoRisk· 2y agoConnectivity· 1mo agoSchools· 1mo agoAmenities· 1mo agoArea· Census 2021

HP Score

/ 100

Mixed

Verdict

today

Verdict: INVESTIGATE, on a scale of Buy, Investigate, Avoid.
Mixed signals - investigate

Evidence

14 of 21 sources

Sale Estimate

£592,000

£562k - £622kHigh

Estimate

£592k

Range

£562k – £622k

Rent Estimate (pcm)

£3,000

£3k - £3k

Monthly

£3,000

Yield

6.05%

Verdict

Derived from HomePortfolio scores

Cefn Y Marial earns an INVESTIGATE rating with HP Score 72/100. Investment score 60/100 reflects moderate fundamentals. Crime intensity is very low. Flood risk is not assessed: check the Environment Agency long-term flood map before offering. Tenure is freehold. Every figure here comes from the live HomePortfolio API; anything it does not publish is left out.

Key SourcesEPC RegisterPortal listingsOfcom Connected NationsMarket estimates (third-party AVM)ONS Census 2021Police.ukHM Land Registry company ownershipHM Land Registry covenantsHM Land Registry Price PaidPlanIt / council planning portalsOverture Maps PlacesOfsted / DfE GIAS

HP Score

72/ 100

Mixed

Investment Score

60/ 100

Moderate

Crime Score

10/ 100

Low

Walkability

No data

Transit & Bike

No data

Opportunity

Why this could be an opportunity

Low confidence0 independent sourcesListing checked 2 Nov 2026

This rests largely on a single source. Treat the score as a prompt to investigate, not a conclusion.

Valuation edge0/15
claims [AVM -0.5% (HIGH)] → measured edge +0.00pp of the ask; on later-registered sales an AVM discount carried no edge and a sold-evidence gap at most +0.5pp
Market estimate used (HIGH confidence) · snapshot 12 Oct 2026
- valuation_snapshotsestimate for 10012912917· as of 12 Oct 2026
Rental economics7.6/40
gross yield 6.1%; range width penalty ×0.90
- valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 3000/mo (range 2750-3200)· as of 12 Oct 2026· verify before relying on this
- listing_factslisting text signals condition works - budget before trusting any yield· as of 2 Nov 2026· verify before relying on this
Stress margin0/30
stressed cash flow -435/mo, -15% of rent (6.75% on a 75% loan; no service charge or ground rent disclosed); fails the stress - earns nothing
- underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advert· as of 2 Nov 2026
Seller motivationNot scored
context, not scored: 1 price cut(s), 265 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge
- portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_date· as of 2 Nov 2026
Risk & liquidity14.6/15
149 sales/12mo in area; valuation range width 10%
- property_intelligencetransactions_12mo

4 of 4 components scored. Ranks on gross yield, the stress margin, risk and disclosed facts. A pricing claim earns only its measured edge: today 0 for the market estimate and at most +0.5pp for sold evidence. The score itself is not yet checked against the outcomes of homes it scored.

Economics

What happens to your money

Price sensitivity

£446,000£684,000

The same scorer re-run at hypothetical asking prices, holding rent, comps and listing history constant. Not a prediction of what the seller would accept.

Your assumptions

Purchase price£595,000

At the asking price

Monthly rent£3,000/mo

Evidenced range £2,750-£3,200

Interest rate5.4%

Loan to value75%

Cash required: £199,550
Net cash flow: £69/mo
Cash on cash: 0.4%
Score at this price: 22

After a 8% void allowance, 15% management and 10% maintenance. Lender coverage (rent ÷ interest): 1.49 - clears the usual 1.25 test. These are your assumptions, not evidence: only the pre-filled rent and price come from the record.

Evidence

Where every number comes from

valuation_snapshotsestimate for 10012912917Valuation edge · as of 12 Oct 2026
valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 3000/mo (range 2750-3200)Rental economics · as of 12 Oct 2026 · verify before relying on this
listing_factslisting text signals condition works - budget before trusting any yieldRental economics · as of 2 Nov 2026 · verify before relying on this
underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advertStress margin · as of 2 Nov 2026
portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_dateSeller motivation · as of 2 Nov 2026

Risks

What could kill this deal

Score confidence is low
largely a single source - treat the number as a prompt, not a conclusion
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
rent estimate 3000/mo (range 2750-3200)
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
listing text signals condition works - budget before trusting any yield

Plan

Before you offer

1. Get two written rental appraisals from local lettings agents.
The rent estimate rests on area-level evidence, not lettings on this street.
2. Ask the agent why the price was reduced and whether a previous sale fell through.
1 price cut(s) recorded on the listing history.
3. Commission a full structural survey, not a basic condition report.
The score prices market evidence, not the fabric of the building.

Every step above was generated from a specific gap or flag in the evidence - no generic advice, no invented tasks.

Valuation & Market

Sale Estimate£592,000

Rent Estimate (pcm)£3,000

Gross Yield6.05%

1y Growth-

3y Growth+4.3%

5y Growth+1.2%

10y Growth+4.3%

Last Sold Price-

View Market Details

Risk Overview

Flood RiskUnknown
SubsidenceLow
RadonModerate
MiningLow
LandslideSignificant
Air QualityLow
NoiseWithheld

View Full Risk Report

Planning Activity

Recent Apps

0LL16 4TH

Approval Rate

-12mo

Development

low

23/2024/1137/AC
Manylion gwella bioamrywiaeth; tirlunio caled a meddal a chynllun rheoli arogl wedi'i gyflwyno yn unol ag amodau rhif 3, 6 ac 11 o ganiatad cynllunio rhif 23/2023/0468 / Details of biodiversity enhancement; hard and soft landscaping and odour management plan submitted in accordance with condition no's 3, 6 and 11 of planning permission code no. 23/2023/0468
Pending
23/2024/1118/AC
Manylion gwaith priffyrdd a gyflwynwyd yn unol ag amod rhif 13 o ganiatad cynllunio rhif 23/2023/0468 / Details of highway works submitted in accordance with condition no. 13 of planning permission code no. 23/2023/0468
Approved
23/2023/0878
Ffurfio 25 o gaeau carafán ychwanegol gan gynnwys adeiladu ffyrdd mewnol,gosod offer trin pecyn a gwaith cysylltiedig / Formation of an additional 25 caravan pitches including the construction of internal roads, installation of package treatment plant and associated works
Pending

View Planning Timeline