Aragorn, Shelley Road, Hutton, Brentwood, CM13 2SF

UPRN:10013534883Detached House5 bedsBuilt 2003-2006

FreeholdCouncil Tax: Band GEPC: C (74)

Data freshness:Price Paid· freshPlanning· freshEPC· 6mo agoRisk· 5mo agoConnectivity· 1mo agoAmenities· 1mo agoArea· Census 2021

Aragorn, Shelley Road, Hutton, Brentwood, CM13 2SF

HP Score

/ 100

Mixed

Verdict

3 days ago

Verdict: INVESTIGATE, on a scale of Buy, Investigate, Avoid.
Mixed signals - investigate

Evidence

18 of 21 sources

Sale Estimate

£1,270,000

£1.21M - £1.33MHigh

Estimate

£1.27M

Range

£1.21M – £1.33M

Rent Estimate (pcm)

£4,850

£4k - £5k

Monthly

£4,850

Yield

4.66%

Verdict

Derived from HomePortfolio scores

Aragorn earns an INVESTIGATE rating with HP Score 70/100. Investment score 67/100 reflects moderate fundamentals. Crime intensity is low. Walkability is limited (36/100). Flood risk is not assessed: check the Environment Agency long-term flood map before offering. Tenure is freehold. Every figure here comes from the live HomePortfolio API; anything it does not publish is left out.

Key SourcesEPC RegisterPortal listingsOfcom Connected NationsMarket estimates (third-party AVM)HM Land Registry sales matched to addressDefra strategic noise mapping, England Round 4 (Contains Defra data © Crown copyright and database right 2023-2024, Open Government Licence v3.0)Walk ScoreONS Census 2021Police.ukHM Land Registry company ownershipHM Land Registry covenantsHM Land Registry Price PaidPlanIt / council planning portalsOverture Maps PlacesOfsted / DfE GIAS

HP Score

70/ 100

Mixed

Investment Score

67/ 100

Moderate

Crime Score

19/ 100

Moderate

Walkability

36/ 100

Mixed

Transit & Bike

Transit 10Bike 29

Walk Score, out of 100

Opportunity

Why this could be an opportunity

Low confidence1 independent sourceListing checked 27 Oct 2026

This rests largely on a single source. Treat the score as a prompt to investigate, not a conclusion.

Valuation edge2.5/15
claims [AVM +1.6% (HIGH), sold-comps +11.7%, £/sqft +11.7%] → measured edge +0.50pp of the ask; on later-registered sales an AVM discount carried no edge and a sold-evidence gap at most +0.5pp
Market estimate used (HIGH confidence) · snapshot 12 Oct 2026
- valuation_snapshotsestimate for 10013534883· as of 12 Oct 2026
- property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 12 comps, dispersion 20%· as of 27 Oct 2026
Rental economics0/40
gross yield 4.7%; range width penalty ×0.77
- valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 4850/mo (range 4350-5400)· as of 12 Oct 2026· verify before relying on this
Stress margin0/30
stressed cash flow -1,839/mo, -38% of rent (6.75% on a 75% loan; no service charge or ground rent disclosed); fails the stress - earns nothing
- underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advert· as of 27 Oct 2026
Seller motivationNot scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 50 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge
- portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_date· as of 27 Oct 2026
Risk & liquidity14.6/15
280 sales/12mo in area; valuation range width 10%
- property_intelligencetransactions_12mo

4 of 4 components scored. Ranks on gross yield, the stress margin, risk and disclosed facts. A pricing claim earns only its measured edge: today 0 for the market estimate and at most +0.5pp for sold evidence. The score itself is not yet checked against the outcomes of homes it scored.

Economics

What happens to your money

Price sensitivity

£937,500£1,437,500

The same scorer re-run at hypothetical asking prices, holding rent, comps and listing history constant. Not a prediction of what the seller would accept.

Your assumptions

Purchase price£1,250,000

At the asking price

Monthly rent£4,850/mo

Evidenced range £4,350-£5,400

Interest rate5.4%

Loan to value75%

Cash required: £445,050
Net cash flow: -£861/mo
Cash on cash: -2.3%
Score at this price: 17

After a 8% void allowance, 15% management and 10% maintenance. Lender coverage (rent ÷ interest): 1.15 - below the usual 1.25 test. These are your assumptions, not evidence: only the pre-filled rent and price come from the record.

Evidence

Where every number comes from

valuation_snapshotsestimate for 10013534883Valuation edge · as of 12 Oct 2026
property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 12 comps, dispersion 20%Valuation edge · as of 27 Oct 2026
valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 4850/mo (range 4350-5400)Rental economics · as of 12 Oct 2026 · verify before relying on this
underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advertStress margin · as of 27 Oct 2026
portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_dateSeller motivation · as of 27 Oct 2026

Risks

What could kill this deal

Score confidence is low
largely a single source - treat the number as a prompt, not a conclusion
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
rent estimate 4850/mo (range 4350-5400)
Seller motivation could not be scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 50 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge

Property risk deep-dive →

Plan

Before you offer

1. Get two written rental appraisals from local lettings agents.
The rent estimate rests on area-level evidence, not lettings on this street.
2. Treat the gap to the estimate as unproven - compare recent sold prices on the street yourself before pricing an offer around it.
On later completions, homes listed below their estimate sold at the same share of the asking price as the rest.
3. Commission a full structural survey, not a basic condition report.
The score prices market evidence, not the fabric of the building.

Every step above was generated from a specific gap or flag in the evidence - no generic advice, no invented tasks.

Valuation & Market

Sale Estimate£1,270,000

Rent Estimate (pcm)£4,850

Gross Yield4.66%

1y Growth-

3y Growth+7.6%

5y Growth+2.6%

10y Growth+3.0%

Last Sold Price£1,135,000 (2021-03-03)

View Market Details

Risk Overview

Flood RiskUnknown
SubsidenceSignificant
RadonLow
MiningUnknown
LandslideLow
Air QualityLow
NoiseLow

View Full Risk Report

Planning Activity

Recent Apps

2CM13 2SF

Approval Rate

100%12mo

Development

low

20/01912/COND/8
Discharge of Condition 6 (Estate Management Plan) and 27 (SuDS Maintenance Plan) of application 20/01912/FUL (Redevelopment of site including demolition of houses and bungalows and development of 62 zero carbon homes incorporating extensions and conversion of Courage Court to form 22 flats, construction of 16 houses and 24 flats; provision of open space, landscaping and associated works).
Pending
23/00768/COND/4
Discharge of Condition 6 (Estate Management Plan) 12 (Home User Guides) and 20 (SuDS Maintenance Plan) of application 23/00768/FUL (Demolition of Courage Court building and construction of a four storey zero carbon (in use) apartment block containing 22 flats, 19 x one bedroom and 3 x two bedroom and associated works).
Pending
26/01195/TPO
T1 Oak - Sectionally dismantle to low stump only, T4 Sycamore - Sectionally dismantle to low stump only, T6 Oak- Reduce by 4m and reshape, T7 Ash - Sectionally dismantle to low stump only. Additional trees: Ash- Pollard to 5m / Maple - Sectionally dismantle dead tree to low stump only / Sycamore - Sectionally dismantle partially dead tree to low stump only / Chestnut -Sectionally dismantle to low stump only TPO Number: TPO19/2006 / TPO15/1995 / TPO6/1981 / TPO19/2006
Pending

View Planning Timeline

Ownership

Corporate Ownership45.6%
Overseas OwnershipNo
Lease Term Remaining-
CovenantsRestrictive
Lease TypeFreehold
Last Ownership Change2021-03-03
SourceLand Registry

View Ownership Details

Connectivity

Broadband (Standard)

3 Mbps

Mobile 4G/5G Coverage

EV Charger

PTAL Rating

View Connectivity Map

Area Profile

Median EarningsLocal authority£39,864

Population Density-

Owner Occupied55%

Age Distribution

0-15 21%16-64 60%65+ 19%

View Area Profile

Schools Nearby

Willowbrook Primary School
0.3 mi
Good
St Martin's School Brentwood
0.4 mi
Area grades2024
Inspected after Ofsted withdrew the single overall grade.
St Joseph the Worker Catholic Primary School
0.5 mi
Area grades2024
Inspected after Ofsted withdrew the single overall grade.
Hutton All Saints' Church of England Primary School
0.5 mi
Good

4 of 12 nearby schools with published figures were oversubscribed in 2026 - demand, not a catchment.

View All Schools

Comparables

View All

Chadstone Shelley Road
-
£650k
-
Aragorn Shelley Road
-
£1.14M
-
Oaklands Shelley Road
-
£810k
-
The Rowans Shelley Road
-
£800k
-

Boundary data not available for this property

No registered title polygon, building footprint, or street match for this property yet.

Why: No HMLR INSPIRE / OSM footprint / OS Open USRN match for this UPRN

Source: HM Land Registry INSPIRE / OpenStreetMap / OS Open USRN