23 Bailey Drive, Castle Hill, Ebbsfleet Valley, Swanscombe, DA10 1AA

UPRN:10023445227Semi-Detached House3 bedsBuilt -

FreeholdCouncil Tax: Band EEPC: -

Data freshness:Price Paid· freshPlanning· 4mo agoRisk· 5mo agoConnectivity· 1mo agoAmenities· 1mo agoArea· Census 2021

23 Bailey Drive, Castle Hill, Ebbsfleet Valley, Swanscombe, DA10 1AA

HP Score

/ 100

Mixed

Verdict

3 days ago

Verdict: INVESTIGATE, on a scale of Buy, Investigate, Avoid.
Mixed signals - investigate

Evidence

18 of 21 sources

Sale Estimate

£476,000

£452k - £500kHigh

Estimate

£476k

Range

£452k – £500k

Rent Estimate (pcm)

£2,050

£2k - £2k

Monthly

£2,050

Yield

5.79%

Verdict

Derived from HomePortfolio scores

23 Bailey Drive earns an INVESTIGATE rating with HP Score 59/100. Investment score 51/100 reflects moderate fundamentals. Crime intensity is low. Walkability is limited (13/100). Flood risk is not assessed: check the Environment Agency long-term flood map before offering. Tenure is freehold. Every figure here comes from the live HomePortfolio API; anything it does not publish is left out.

Key SourcesPortal listingsOfcom Connected NationsOfcom mobile coverageMarket estimates (third-party AVM)HM Land Registry sales matched to addressDefra strategic noise mapping, England Round 4 (Contains Defra data © Crown copyright and database right 2023-2024, Open Government Licence v3.0)Walk ScoreONS Census 2021Police.ukHM Land Registry company ownershipHM Land Registry covenantsHM Land Registry Price PaidPlanIt / council planning portalsOverture Maps PlacesOfsted / DfE GIAS

HP Score

59/ 100

Mixed

Investment Score

51/ 100

Moderate

Crime Score

33/ 100

Moderate

Walkability

13/ 100

Low

Transit & Bike

Transit 21Bike 49

Walk Score, out of 100

Opportunity

Why this could be an opportunity

Low confidence0 independent sourcesListing checked 27 Oct 2026

This rests largely on a single source. Treat the score as a prompt to investigate, not a conclusion.

Valuation edge0/15
claims [AVM +10.7% (HIGH)] → measured edge +0.00pp of the ask; on later-registered sales an AVM discount carried no edge and a sold-evidence gap at most +0.5pp
Market estimate used (HIGH confidence) · snapshot 10 Oct 2026
- valuation_snapshotsestimate for 10023445227· as of 10 Oct 2026
Rental economics5.7/40
gross yield 5.8%; range width penalty ×0.91
- valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 2050/mo (range 1900-2200)· as of 10 Oct 2026· verify before relying on this
Stress margin0/30
stressed cash flow -422/mo, -21% of rent (6.75% on a 75% loan; disclosed service charge and ground rent); fails the stress - earns nothing
- listing_factsservice charge / ground rent from the advert· as of 27 Oct 2026
Seller motivationNot scored
context, not scored: 1 price cut(s), 64 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge
- portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_date· as of 27 Oct 2026
Risk & liquidity14.6/15
145 sales/12mo in area; valuation range width 10%
- property_intelligencetransactions_12mo

4 of 4 components scored. Ranks on gross yield, the stress margin, risk and disclosed facts. A pricing claim earns only its measured edge: today 0 for the market estimate and at most +0.5pp for sold evidence. The score itself is not yet checked against the outcomes of homes it scored.

Economics

What happens to your money

Price sensitivity

£319,000£488,500

The same scorer re-run at hypothetical asking prices, holding rent, comps and listing history constant. Not a prediction of what the seller would accept.

Your assumptions

Purchase price£425,000

At the asking price

Monthly rent£2,050/mo

Evidenced range £1,900-£2,200

Interest rate5.4%

Loan to value75%

Cash required: £140,050
Net cash flow: -£15/mo
Cash on cash: -0.1%
Score at this price: 20

After a 8% void allowance, 15% management and 10% maintenance. Lender coverage (rent ÷ interest): 1.43 - clears the usual 1.25 test. These are your assumptions, not evidence: only the pre-filled rent and price come from the record.

Evidence

Where every number comes from

valuation_snapshotsestimate for 10023445227Valuation edge · as of 10 Oct 2026
valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 2050/mo (range 1900-2200)Rental economics · as of 10 Oct 2026 · verify before relying on this
listing_factsservice charge / ground rent from the advertStress margin · as of 27 Oct 2026
portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_dateSeller motivation · as of 27 Oct 2026
property_intelligencetransactions_12moRisk & liquidity

Sold comparables in depth

Risks

What could kill this deal

Score confidence is low
largely a single source - treat the number as a prompt, not a conclusion
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
rent estimate 2050/mo (range 1900-2200)
Seller motivation could not be scored
context, not scored: 1 price cut(s), 64 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge

Property risk deep-dive →

Plan

Before you offer

1. Get two written rental appraisals from local lettings agents.
The rent estimate rests on area-level evidence, not lettings on this street.
2. Ask the agent why the price was reduced and whether a previous sale fell through.
1 price cut(s) recorded on the listing history.
3. Treat the gap to the estimate as unproven - compare recent sold prices on the street yourself before pricing an offer around it.
On later completions, homes listed below their estimate sold at the same share of the asking price as the rest.
4. Commission a full structural survey, not a basic condition report.
The score prices market evidence, not the fabric of the building.

Valuation & Market

Sale Estimate£476,000

Rent Estimate (pcm)£2,050

Gross Yield5.79%

1y Growth-

3y Growth-2.3%

5y Growth-0.6%

10y Growth+1.3%

Last Sold Price£392,500 (2021-05-05)

View Market Details

Risk Overview

Flood RiskUnknown
SubsidenceSignificant
RadonLow
MiningSignificant
LandslideLow
Air QualityLow
NoiseModerate

View Full Risk Report

Planning Activity

Recent Apps

0DA10 1AA

Approval Rate

-12mo

Development

low

26/01156/CPO
Consultation from KCC on Details of an Archaeological Watching Brief pursuant to Condition 8 pursuant to planning permission DA/26/337
Approved
KCC/DA/0148/2026
Details of an Archaeological Watching Brief pursuant to Condition 8 of planning permission DA/26/337
Pending
26/01127/NONMAT
Non-material amendment following grant of planning permission DA/26/00501/FUL in respect of reducing the depth of single storey rear extension
Pending

View Planning Timeline

Ownership

Corporate Ownership66.7%
Overseas OwnershipNo
Lease Term Remaining-
CovenantsRestrictive
Lease TypeFreehold
Last Ownership Change2021-05-05
SourceLand Registry

View Ownership Details

Connectivity

Broadband (Standard)

3 Mbps

Mobile 4G/5G Coverage

EEThreeO2Vodafone

EV Charger

PTAL Rating

View Connectivity Map

Area Profile

Median EarningsLocal authority£36,210

Population Density-

Owner Occupied67%

Age Distribution

0-15 30%16-64 69%65+ 1%

View Area Profile

Schools Nearby

Leigh Academy Cherry Orchard
0.2 mi
Report card2026
Ofsted no longer awards a single overall grade.
Manor Community Primary School
0.3 mi
Good
Alkerden Church of England Academy
0.4 mi
-
Leigh Academy Ebbsfleet
0.4 mi
Good

5 of 15 nearby schools with published figures were oversubscribed in 2026 - demand, not a catchment.

View All Schools

Comparables

View All

13 Bailey Drive
-
£425k
-
48 Bailey Drive
-
£438k
-
42 Bailey Drive
-
£350k
-
26 Bailey Drive
-
£360k
-

Boundary data not available for this property

No registered title polygon, building footprint, or street match for this property yet.

Why: No HMLR INSPIRE / OSM footprint / OS Open USRN match for this UPRN

Source: HM Land Registry INSPIRE / OpenStreetMap / OS Open USRN