7 The Water Garden, Lower Mill Estate, Somerford Keynes, Cirencester, GL7 6FU

UPRN:10024444669Detached House4 bedsBuilt -

FreeholdCouncil Tax: -EPC: -

Data freshness:Listing· freshPlanning· 4mo agoOwnership· freshRisk· 5mo agoConnectivity· 1mo agoSchools· 1mo agoAmenities· 2mo agoArea· Census 2021

7 The Water Garden, Lower Mill Estate, Somerford Keynes, Cirencester, GL7 6FU

HP Score

/ 100

Mixed

Verdict

yesterday

Verdict: INVESTIGATE, on a scale of Buy, Investigate, Avoid.
Mixed signals - investigate

Evidence

17 of 21 sources

Sale Estimate

£730,000

£693k - £766kHigh

Estimate

£730k

Range

£693k – £766k

Rent Estimate (pcm)

£3,300

£3k - £4k

Monthly

£3,300

Yield

5.66%

Verdict

Derived from HomePortfolio scores

7 The Water Garden earns an INVESTIGATE rating with HP Score 57/100. Investment score 50/100 reflects moderate fundamentals. Crime intensity is very low. Walkability is limited (4/100). Flood risk is not assessed: check the Environment Agency long-term flood map before offering. Tenure is freehold. Every figure here comes from the live HomePortfolio API; anything it does not publish is left out.

Key SourcesPortal listingsOfcom Connected NationsOfcom mobile coverageMarket estimates (third-party AVM)Defra strategic noise mapping, England Round 4 (Contains Defra data © Crown copyright and database right 2023-2024, Open Government Licence v3.0)Walk ScoreONS Census 2021Police.ukHM Land Registry company ownershipHM Land Registry covenantsHM Land Registry Price PaidPlanIt / council planning portalsOverture Maps PlacesOfsted / DfE GIAS

HP Score

57/ 100

Mixed

Investment Score

50/ 100

Moderate

Crime Score

2/ 100

Low

Walkability

4/ 100

Low

Transit & Bike

Transit 2Bike 29

Walk Score, out of 100

Opportunity

Why this could be an opportunity

Low confidence0 independent sourcesListing checked 7 Nov 2026

This rests largely on a single source. Treat the score as a prompt to investigate, not a conclusion.

Valuation edge0/15
claims [AVM +4.1% (HIGH)] → measured edge +0.00pp of the ask; on later-registered sales an AVM discount carried no edge and a sold-evidence gap at most +0.5pp
Market estimate used (HIGH confidence) · snapshot 9 Nov 2026
- valuation_snapshotsestimate for 10024444669· as of 9 Nov 2026
Rental economics4.6/40
gross yield 5.7%; range width penalty ×0.87
- valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 3300/mo (range 3000-3550)· as of 9 Nov 2026· verify before relying on this
Stress margin0/30
stressed cash flow -1,187/mo, -36% of rent (6.75% on a 75% loan; disclosed service charge and ground rent); fails the stress - earns nothing
- listing_factsservice charge / ground rent from the advert· as of 7 Nov 2026
Seller motivationNot scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 276 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge
- portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_date· as of 7 Nov 2026
Risk & liquidity14.6/15
499 sales/12mo in area; valuation range width 10%
- property_intelligencetransactions_12mo

4 of 4 components scored. Ranks on gross yield, the stress margin, risk and disclosed facts. A pricing claim earns only its measured edge: today 0 for the market estimate and at most +0.5pp for sold evidence. The score itself is not yet checked against the outcomes of homes it scored.

Economics

What happens to your money

Price sensitivity

£525,000£805,000

The same scorer re-run at hypothetical asking prices, holding rent, comps and listing history constant. Not a prediction of what the seller would accept.

Your assumptions

Purchase price£700,000

At the asking price

Monthly rent£3,300/mo

Evidenced range £3,000-£3,550

Interest rate5.4%

Loan to value75%

Cash required: £236,300
Net cash flow: -£78/mo
Cash on cash: -0.4%
Score at this price: 19

After a 8% void allowance, 15% management and 10% maintenance. Lender coverage (rent ÷ interest): 1.40 - clears the usual 1.25 test. These are your assumptions, not evidence: only the pre-filled rent and price come from the record.

Evidence

Where every number comes from

valuation_snapshotsestimate for 10024444669Valuation edge · as of 9 Nov 2026
valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 3300/mo (range 3000-3550)Rental economics · as of 9 Nov 2026 · verify before relying on this
listing_factsservice charge / ground rent from the advertStress margin · as of 7 Nov 2026
portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_dateSeller motivation · as of 7 Nov 2026
property_intelligencetransactions_12moRisk & liquidity

Sold comparables in depth

Risks

What could kill this deal

Score confidence is low
largely a single source - treat the number as a prompt, not a conclusion
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
rent estimate 3300/mo (range 3000-3550)
Seller motivation could not be scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 276 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge

Property risk deep-dive →

Plan

Before you offer

1. Get two written rental appraisals from local lettings agents.
The rent estimate rests on area-level evidence, not lettings on this street.
2. Treat the gap to the estimate as unproven - compare recent sold prices on the street yourself before pricing an offer around it.
On later completions, homes listed below their estimate sold at the same share of the asking price as the rest.
3. Commission a full structural survey, not a basic condition report.
The score prices market evidence, not the fabric of the building.

Every step above was generated from a specific gap or flag in the evidence - no generic advice, no invented tasks.

Valuation & Market

Sale Estimate£730,000

Rent Estimate (pcm)£3,300

Gross Yield5.66%

1y Growth-

3y Growth-2.5%

5y Growth+1.6%

10y Growth+3.4%

Last Sold Price-

View Market Details

Risk Overview

Flood RiskUnknown
SubsidenceModerate
RadonLow
MiningUnknown
LandslideLow
Air QualityLow
NoiseBelow 40 dB

View Full Risk Report

Planning Activity

Recent Apps

0GL7 6FU

Approval Rate

-12mo

Development

low

26/03295/COMPLY
Compliance with condition 4 (surface water drainage) and 6 (Great Crested Newts) of permission 24/03269/FUL - Erection of a single-storey extension
Pending
26/03111/TCONR
Sycamore at front of property showing signs of decline and leaning over road and pavement - request permission to fell. Cherry with weak main fork in rear garden leaning over boundary wall - request permission to fell
Pending
26/02754/COMPLY
Compliance with condition 3 (surface water drainage) of permission 25/03206/FUL - Erection of single storey extension to side elevation
Approved

View Planning Timeline