40 Birch Green, Hertford, SG14 2LU

UPRN:10033090083Semi-Detached House3 bedsBuilt 1930-1949

FreeholdCouncil Tax: Band DEPC: D (62)

Data freshness:Listing· freshEPC· 6mo agoRisk· 5mo agoConnectivity· 1mo agoSchools· 1mo agoAmenities· 2mo agoArea· Census 2021

HP Score

/ 100

Mixed

Verdict

3 days ago

Verdict: INVESTIGATE, on a scale of Buy, Investigate, Avoid.
Mixed signals - investigate

Evidence

17 of 21 sources

Sale Estimate

£753,000

£715k - £790kHigh

Estimate

£753k

Range

£715k – £790k

Rent Estimate (pcm)

£2,800

£3k - £3k

Monthly

£2,800

Yield

4.48%

Verdict

Derived from HomePortfolio scores

40 Birch Green earns an INVESTIGATE rating with HP Score 67/100. Investment score 54/100 reflects moderate fundamentals. Crime intensity is low. Walkability is limited (41/100). Flood risk is not assessed: check the Environment Agency long-term flood map before offering. Tenure is freehold. Every figure here comes from the live HomePortfolio API; anything it does not publish is left out.

Key SourcesEPC RegisterPortal listingsOfcom Connected NationsMarket estimates (third-party AVM)HM Land Registry sales matched to addressDefra strategic noise mapping, England Round 4 (Contains Defra data © Crown copyright and database right 2023-2024, Open Government Licence v3.0)Walk ScoreONS Census 2021Police.ukHM Land Registry covenantsHM Land Registry Price PaidPlanIt / council planning portalsOverture Maps PlacesOfsted / DfE GIAS

HP Score

67/ 100

Mixed

Investment Score

54/ 100

Moderate

Crime Score

26/ 100

Moderate

Walkability

41/ 100

Mixed

Transit & Bike

Transit 6Bike 44

Walk Score, out of 100

Opportunity

Why this could be an opportunity

Low confidence0 independent sourcesListing checked 5 Nov 2026

This rests largely on a single source. Treat the score as a prompt to investigate, not a conclusion.

Valuation edge0/15
claims [AVM +0.4% (HIGH), sold-comps -3.7%, £/sqft -3.8%] → measured edge +0.00pp of the ask; on later-registered sales an AVM discount carried no edge and a sold-evidence gap at most +0.5pp
Market estimate used (HIGH confidence) · snapshot 13 Oct 2026
- valuation_snapshotsestimate for 10033090083· as of 13 Oct 2026
- property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 8 comps, dispersion 10.9%· as of 28 Oct 2026
Rental economics0/40
gross yield 4.5%; range width penalty ×0.77
- valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 2800/mo (range 2500-3100)· as of 13 Oct 2026· verify before relying on this
Stress margin0/30
stressed cash flow -1,236/mo, -44% of rent (6.75% on a 75% loan; no service charge or ground rent disclosed); fails the stress - earns nothing
- underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advert· as of 5 Nov 2026
Seller motivationNot scored
context, not scored: 1 price cut(s), 60 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge
- portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_date· as of 5 Nov 2026
Risk & liquidity14.6/15
234 sales/12mo in area; valuation range width 10%
- property_intelligencetransactions_12mo

4 of 4 components scored. Ranks on gross yield, the stress margin, risk and disclosed facts. A pricing claim earns only its measured edge: today 0 for the market estimate and at most +0.5pp for sold evidence. The score itself is not yet checked against the outcomes of homes it scored.

Economics

What happens to your money

Price sensitivity

£562,500£862,500

The same scorer re-run at hypothetical asking prices, holding rent, comps and listing history constant. Not a prediction of what the seller would accept.

Your assumptions

Purchase price£750,000

At the asking price

Monthly rent£2,800/mo

Evidenced range £2,500-£3,100

Interest rate5.4%

Loan to value75%

Cash required: £253,800
Net cash flow: -£593/mo
Cash on cash: -2.8%
Score at this price: 15

After a 8% void allowance, 15% management and 10% maintenance. Lender coverage (rent ÷ interest): 1.11 - below the usual 1.25 test. These are your assumptions, not evidence: only the pre-filled rent and price come from the record.

Evidence

Where every number comes from

valuation_snapshotsestimate for 10033090083Valuation edge · as of 13 Oct 2026
property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 8 comps, dispersion 10.9%Valuation edge · as of 28 Oct 2026
valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 2800/mo (range 2500-3100)Rental economics · as of 13 Oct 2026 · verify before relying on this
underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advertStress margin · as of 5 Nov 2026
portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_dateSeller motivation · as of 5 Nov 2026

Risks

What could kill this deal

Score confidence is low
largely a single source - treat the number as a prompt, not a conclusion
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
rent estimate 2800/mo (range 2500-3100)
Seller motivation could not be scored
context, not scored: 1 price cut(s), 60 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge

Property risk deep-dive →

Plan

Before you offer

1. Get two written rental appraisals from local lettings agents.
The rent estimate rests on area-level evidence, not lettings on this street.
2. Ask the agent why the price was reduced and whether a previous sale fell through.
1 price cut(s) recorded on the listing history.
3. Treat the gap to the estimate as unproven - compare recent sold prices on the street yourself before pricing an offer around it.
On later completions, homes listed below their estimate sold at the same share of the asking price as the rest.
4. Commission a full structural survey, not a basic condition report.
The score prices market evidence, not the fabric of the building.

Valuation & Market

Sale Estimate£753,000

Rent Estimate (pcm)£2,800

Gross Yield4.48%

1y Growth-

3y Growth+1.2%

5y Growth+1.6%

10y Growth+2.8%

Last Sold Price£610,000 (2017-09-22)

View Market Details

Risk Overview

Flood RiskUnknown
SubsidenceModerate
RadonLow
MiningLow
LandslideLow
Air QualityLow
NoiseLow

View Full Risk Report

Planning Activity

Recent Apps

2SG14 2LU

Approval Rate

100%12mo

Development

low

X/26/0461/CND
Discharge of Condition 3 (Materials) attached to 3/25/1172/FUL
Pending
X/26/0450/CND
Application for approval of details reserved by conditions 5 (landscape design proposals) and 10 (parking provision) pursuant to planning approval 3/25/1172/FUL
Pending
3/26/1410/CLPO
Certificate of lawfulness for proposed erection of an outbuilding
Pending

View Planning Timeline

Ownership

Corporate Ownership60.7%
Overseas OwnershipNo
Lease Term Remaining-
CovenantsRestrictive
Lease TypeFreehold
Last Ownership Change2017-09-22
SourceLand Registry

View Ownership Details

Connectivity

Broadband (Standard)

3 Mbps

Mobile 4G/5G Coverage

EV Charger

PTAL Rating

View Connectivity Map

Area Profile

Median EarningsLocal authority£44,154

Population Density-

Owner Occupied76%

Age Distribution

0-15 17%16-64 60%65+ 23%

View Area Profile

Schools Nearby

Hertingfordbury Cowper Primary School
0.1 mi
-
The Sele School
1.4 mi
Area grades2025
Inspected after Ofsted withdrew the single overall grade.
Hertford Prep
1.4 mi
Inspected by ISI
Hollybush Primary School
1.4 mi
Area grades2025
Inspected after Ofsted withdrew the single overall grade.

3 of 13 nearby schools with published figures were oversubscribed in 2026 - demand, not a catchment.

View All Schools

Comparables

View All

22 Birch Green
-
£530k
-
18 Birch Green
-
£515k
-
80 Birch Green
-
£640k
-
60 Birch Green
-
£750k
-

Boundary data not available for this property

No registered title polygon, building footprint, or street match for this property yet.

Why: No HMLR INSPIRE / OSM footprint / OS Open USRN match for this UPRN

Source: HM Land Registry INSPIRE / OpenStreetMap / OS Open USRN