4 Bay Tree Lane, Abergavenny, NP7 5JW

UPRN:10033338038Mid Terrace House3 bedsBuilt 2007 onwards

FreeholdCouncil Tax: Band EEPC: C (77)

Data freshness:Listing· freshPrice Paid· freshPlanning· 3mo agoEPC· 6mo agoRisk· 2y agoConnectivity· 1mo agoSchools· 1mo agoAmenities· 1mo agoArea· Census 2021

HP Score

/ 100

Mixed

Verdict

today

Verdict: INVESTIGATE, on a scale of Buy, Investigate, Avoid.
Mixed signals - investigate

Evidence

16 of 21 sources

Sale Estimate

£429,000

£408k - £451kHigh

Estimate

£429k

Range

£408k – £451k

Rent Estimate (pcm)

£1,850

£2k - £2k

Monthly

£1,850

Yield

5.55%

Verdict

Derived from HomePortfolio scores

4 Bay Tree Lane earns an INVESTIGATE rating with HP Score 64/100. Investment score 71/100 reflects strong fundamentals. Crime intensity is elevated. Flood risk is not assessed: check the Environment Agency long-term flood map before offering. Tenure is freehold. Every figure here comes from the live HomePortfolio API; anything it does not publish is left out.

Key SourcesEPC RegisterPortal listingsOfcom Connected NationsOfcom mobile coverageMarket estimates (third-party AVM)HM Land Registry sales matched to addressONS Census 2021Police.ukHM Land Registry covenantsHM Land Registry Price PaidPlanIt / council planning portalsOverture Maps PlacesOfsted / DfE GIAS

HP Score

64/ 100

Mixed

Investment Score

71/ 100

High

Crime Score

62/ 100

Elevated

Walkability

No data

Transit & Bike

No data

Opportunity

Why this could be an opportunity

Low confidence1 independent sourceListing checked 3 Nov 2026

This rests largely on a single source. Treat the score as a prompt to investigate, not a conclusion.

Valuation edge2.4/15
claims [AVM +6.8% (HIGH), sold-comps +2.9%, £/sqft +3.0%] → measured edge +0.49pp of the ask; on later-registered sales an AVM discount carried no edge and a sold-evidence gap at most +0.5pp
Market estimate used (HIGH confidence) · snapshot 13 Oct 2026
- valuation_snapshotsestimate for 10033338038· as of 13 Oct 2026
- property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 9 comps, dispersion 9.1%· as of 30 Oct 2026
Rental economics3.9/40
gross yield 5.5%; range width penalty ×0.88
- valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 1850/mo (range 1700-2000)· as of 13 Oct 2026· verify before relying on this
Stress margin0/30
stressed cash flow -458/mo, -25% of rent (6.75% on a 75% loan; no service charge or ground rent disclosed); fails the stress - earns nothing
- underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advert· as of 3 Nov 2026
Seller motivationNot scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 36 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge
- portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_date· as of 3 Nov 2026
Risk & liquidity14.6/15
259 sales/12mo in area; valuation range width 10%
- property_intelligencetransactions_12mo

4 of 4 components scored. Ranks on gross yield, the stress margin, risk and disclosed facts. A pricing claim earns only its measured edge: today 0 for the market estimate and at most +0.5pp for sold evidence. The score itself is not yet checked against the outcomes of homes it scored.

Economics

What happens to your money

Price sensitivity

£300,000£460,000

The same scorer re-run at hypothetical asking prices, holding rent, comps and listing history constant. Not a prediction of what the seller would accept.

Your assumptions

Purchase price£400,000

At the asking price

Monthly rent£1,850/mo

Evidenced range £1,700-£2,000

Interest rate5.4%

Loan to value75%

Cash required: £131,300
Net cash flow: -£69/mo
Cash on cash: -0.6%
Score at this price: 21

After a 8% void allowance, 15% management and 10% maintenance. Lender coverage (rent ÷ interest): 1.37 - clears the usual 1.25 test. These are your assumptions, not evidence: only the pre-filled rent and price come from the record.

Evidence

Where every number comes from

valuation_snapshotsestimate for 10033338038Valuation edge · as of 13 Oct 2026
property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 9 comps, dispersion 9.1%Valuation edge · as of 30 Oct 2026
valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 1850/mo (range 1700-2000)Rental economics · as of 13 Oct 2026 · verify before relying on this
underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advertStress margin · as of 3 Nov 2026
portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_dateSeller motivation · as of 3 Nov 2026

Risks

What could kill this deal

Score confidence is low
largely a single source - treat the number as a prompt, not a conclusion
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
rent estimate 1850/mo (range 1700-2000)
Seller motivation could not be scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 36 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge

Property risk deep-dive →

Plan

Before you offer

1. Get two written rental appraisals from local lettings agents.
The rent estimate rests on area-level evidence, not lettings on this street.
2. Treat the gap to the estimate as unproven - compare recent sold prices on the street yourself before pricing an offer around it.
On later completions, homes listed below their estimate sold at the same share of the asking price as the rest.
3. Commission a full structural survey, not a basic condition report.
The score prices market evidence, not the fabric of the building.

Every step above was generated from a specific gap or flag in the evidence - no generic advice, no invented tasks.

Valuation & Market

Sale Estimate£429,000

Rent Estimate (pcm)£1,850

Gross Yield5.55%

1y Growth-

3y Growth+3.2%

5y Growth+3.7%

10y Growth+4.6%

Last Sold Price£292,500 (2021-04-30)

View Market Details

Risk Overview

Flood RiskUnknown
SubsidenceLow
RadonModerate
MiningLow
LandslideSignificant
Air QualityLow
NoiseWithheld

View Full Risk Report

Planning Activity

Recent Apps

2NP7 5JW

Approval Rate

0%12mo

Development

low

DM/2026/01244
Lime tree - sucker next to road and branch clearance to allow 17ft clearance above highway. Ash - reduction by 30% Sycamore - removal of branch. Ash tree work to combat Ash die back stage 1 and to also trim long hanging branches. Tree has grown in an oval shape crown and as a result has some large, overhanging but low branches. As discussed with TPO officer during site visit.
Approved
DM/2026/01230
Installing 4 electric scooter stores and charging units to mitigate internal fire risks.
Pending
DM/2026/01215
NMA ref DM/2025/01353 Replacing existing conservatory and utility room with garden room and shower/utility room.
Approved

View Planning Timeline