Providence Cottage, Beacon Road, Trelleck, Monmouth, NP25 4QB

UPRN:10033339077Detached House4 bedsBuilt before 1900

FreeholdCouncil Tax: -EPC: E (42)

Data freshness:Listing· freshPrice Paid· freshPlanning· 3mo agoEPC· 4mo agoRisk· 2y agoConnectivity· 1mo agoSchools· 1mo agoAmenities· 1mo agoArea· Census 2021

Providence Cottage, Beacon Road, Trelleck, Monmouth, NP25 4QB

HP Score

/ 100

Strong

Verdict

yesterday

Verdict: INVESTIGATE, on a scale of Buy, Investigate, Avoid.
Strong fundamentals; flood risk not assessed

Evidence

16 of 21 sources

Sale Estimate

£653,000

£621k - £686kHigh

Estimate

£653k

Range

£621k – £686k

Rent Estimate (pcm)

£2,100

£2k - £2k

Monthly

£2,100

Yield

3.04%

Verdict

Derived from HomePortfolio scores

Providence Cottage earns an INVESTIGATE rating with HP Score 78/100. Investment score 64/100 reflects moderate fundamentals. Crime intensity is very low. Flood risk is not assessed: check the Environment Agency long-term flood map before offering. Tenure is freehold. Every figure here comes from the live HomePortfolio API; anything it does not publish is left out.

Key SourcesEPC RegisterPortal listingsOfcom Connected NationsOfcom mobile coverageMarket estimates (third-party AVM)HM Land Registry sales matched to addressONS Census 2021Police.ukHM Land Registry covenantsHM Land Registry Price PaidPlanIt / council planning portalsOverture Maps PlacesOfsted / DfE GIAS

HP Score

78/ 100

Strong

Investment Score

64/ 100

Moderate

Crime Score

7/ 100

Low

Walkability

No data

Transit & Bike

No data

Opportunity

Why this could be an opportunity

Low confidence0 independent sourcesListing checked 4 Nov 2026

This rests largely on a single source. Treat the score as a prompt to investigate, not a conclusion.

Valuation edge-1.6/15
claims [AVM -27.1% (HIGH), sold-comps -11.6%, £/sqft -11.6%] → measured edge -0.33pp of the ask; on later-registered sales an AVM discount carried no edge and a sold-evidence gap at most +0.5pp; asking more than 10% above the estimate (measured -0.33pp)
Market estimate used (HIGH confidence) · snapshot 13 Oct 2026
- valuation_snapshotsestimate for 10033339077· as of 13 Oct 2026
- property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 12 comps, dispersion 21.2%· as of 4 Nov 2026
Rental economics0/40
gross yield 3.0%; range width penalty ×0.72
- valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 2100/mo (range 1850-2350)· as of 13 Oct 2026· verify before relying on this
Stress margin0/30
stressed cash flow -2,088/mo, -99% of rent (6.75% on a 75% loan; no service charge or ground rent disclosed); fails the stress - earns nothing
- underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advert· as of 4 Nov 2026
Seller motivationNot scored
context, not scored: 1 price cut(s), 94 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge
- portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_date· as of 4 Nov 2026
Risk & liquidity14.6/15
146 sales/12mo in area; valuation range width 10%
- property_intelligencetransactions_12mo

4 of 4 components scored. Ranks on gross yield, the stress margin, risk and disclosed facts. A pricing claim earns only its measured edge: today 0 for the market estimate and at most +0.5pp for sold evidence. The score itself is not yet checked against the outcomes of homes it scored.

Economics

What happens to your money

Price sensitivity

£622,500£954,500

The same scorer re-run at hypothetical asking prices, holding rent, comps and listing history constant. Not a prediction of what the seller would accept.

Your assumptions

Purchase price£830,000

At the asking price

Monthly rent£2,100/mo

Evidenced range £1,850-£2,350

Interest rate5.4%

Loan to value75%

Cash required: £281,800
Net cash flow: -£1,347/mo
Cash on cash: -5.7%
Score at this price: 13

After a 8% void allowance, 15% management and 10% maintenance. Lender coverage (rent ÷ interest): 0.75 - below the usual 1.25 test. These are your assumptions, not evidence: only the pre-filled rent and price come from the record.

Evidence

Where every number comes from

valuation_snapshotsestimate for 10033339077Valuation edge · as of 13 Oct 2026
property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 12 comps, dispersion 21.2%Valuation edge · as of 4 Nov 2026
valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 2100/mo (range 1850-2350)Rental economics · as of 13 Oct 2026 · verify before relying on this
underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advertStress margin · as of 4 Nov 2026
portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_dateSeller motivation · as of 4 Nov 2026

Risks

What could kill this deal

Score confidence is low
largely a single source - treat the number as a prompt, not a conclusion
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
rent estimate 2100/mo (range 1850-2350)
Seller motivation could not be scored
context, not scored: 1 price cut(s), 94 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge

Property risk deep-dive →

Plan

Before you offer

1. Get two written rental appraisals from local lettings agents.
The rent estimate rests on area-level evidence, not lettings on this street.
2. Ask the agent why the price was reduced and whether a previous sale fell through.
1 price cut(s) recorded on the listing history.
3. Commission a full structural survey, not a basic condition report.
The score prices market evidence, not the fabric of the building.

Every step above was generated from a specific gap or flag in the evidence - no generic advice, no invented tasks.

Valuation & Market

Sale Estimate£653,000

Rent Estimate (pcm)£2,100

Gross Yield3.04%

1y Growth+2.8%

3y Growth-1.5%

5y Growth+0.2%

10y Growth+2.5%

Last Sold Price£580,000 (2024-02-16)

View Market Details

Risk Overview

Flood RiskUnknown
SubsidenceLow
RadonModerate
MiningLow
LandslideModerate
Air QualityLow
NoiseWithheld

View Full Risk Report

Planning Activity

Recent Apps

1NP25 4QB

Approval Rate

100%12mo

Development

low

DM/2026/01249
Demolition of existing single storey structures. Construction of new 2 storey side extension and dormer enlargement to bathroom.
Pending
DM/2026/01183
Discharge of Conditions 3 in relation to planning decision DM/2026/00783.
Approved
DM/2026/00864
DOC 4 for DM/2026/00513 To engage a suitably qualified archaeological expert to prepare a written scheme of historic environment mitigation, and to attend and inspect the building earthworks when the project commences.
Approved

View Planning Timeline