Lower Willows, Priory Lane, Monmouth, NP25 3HN

UPRN:10033340267Detached House6 bedsBuilt 1996-2002

FreeholdCouncil Tax: -EPC: B (87)

Data freshness:Listing· freshPlanning· 4mo agoEPC· 3mo agoRisk· 2y agoConnectivity· 1mo agoSchools· 1mo agoAmenities· 2mo agoArea· Census 2021

Lower Willows, Priory Lane, Monmouth, NP25 3HN

HP Score

/ 100

Strong

Verdict

3 days ago

Verdict: INVESTIGATE, on a scale of Buy, Investigate, Avoid.
Strong fundamentals; flood risk not assessed

Evidence

15 of 21 sources

Sale Estimate

£1,045,000

£993k - £1.10MHigh

Estimate

£1.04M

Range

£993k – £1.10M

Rent Estimate (pcm)

£3,350

£3k - £4k

Monthly

£3,350

Yield

3.83%

Verdict

Derived from HomePortfolio scores

Lower Willows earns an INVESTIGATE rating with HP Score 87/100. Investment score 71/100 reflects strong fundamentals. Crime intensity is very low. Flood risk is not assessed: check the Environment Agency long-term flood map before offering. Tenure is freehold. Every figure here comes from the live HomePortfolio API; anything it does not publish is left out.

Key SourcesEPC RegisterPortal listingsOfcom Connected NationsOfcom mobile coverageMarket estimates (third-party AVM)HM Land Registry sales matched to addressONS Census 2021Police.ukHM Land Registry Price PaidPlanIt / council planning portalsOverture Maps PlacesOfsted / DfE GIAS

HP Score

87/ 100

Strong

Investment Score

71/ 100

High

Crime Score

3/ 100

Low

Walkability

No data

Transit & Bike

No data

Opportunity

Why this could be an opportunity

Low confidence0 independent sourcesListing checked 4 Nov 2026

This rests largely on a single source. Treat the score as a prompt to investigate, not a conclusion.

Valuation edge0/15
claims [AVM -0.5% (HIGH)] → measured edge +0.00pp of the ask; on later-registered sales an AVM discount carried no edge and a sold-evidence gap at most +0.5pp
Market estimate used (HIGH confidence) · snapshot 13 Oct 2026
- valuation_snapshotsestimate for 10033340267· as of 13 Oct 2026
Rental economics0/40
gross yield 3.8%; range width penalty ×0.66
- valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 3350/mo (range 2900-3800)· as of 13 Oct 2026· verify before relying on this
Stress margin0/30
stressed cash flow -2,097/mo, -63% of rent (6.75% on a 75% loan; no service charge or ground rent disclosed); fails the stress - earns nothing
- underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advert· as of 4 Nov 2026
Seller motivationNot scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 113 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge
- portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_date· as of 4 Nov 2026
Risk & liquidity14.6/15
146 sales/12mo in area; valuation range width 10%
- property_intelligencetransactions_12mo

4 of 4 components scored. Ranks on gross yield, the stress margin, risk and disclosed facts. A pricing claim earns only its measured edge: today 0 for the market estimate and at most +0.5pp for sold evidence. The score itself is not yet checked against the outcomes of homes it scored.

Economics

What happens to your money

Price sensitivity

£787,500£1,207,500

The same scorer re-run at hypothetical asking prices, holding rent, comps and listing history constant. Not a prediction of what the seller would accept.

Your assumptions

Purchase price£1,050,000

At the asking price

Monthly rent£3,350/mo

Evidenced range £2,900-£3,800

Interest rate5.4%

Loan to value75%

Cash required: £365,050
Net cash flow: -£1,225/mo
Cash on cash: -4.0%
Score at this price: 15

After a 8% void allowance, 15% management and 10% maintenance. Lender coverage (rent ÷ interest): 0.95 - below the usual 1.25 test. These are your assumptions, not evidence: only the pre-filled rent and price come from the record.

Evidence

Where every number comes from

valuation_snapshotsestimate for 10033340267Valuation edge · as of 13 Oct 2026
valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 3350/mo (range 2900-3800)Rental economics · as of 13 Oct 2026 · verify before relying on this
underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advertStress margin · as of 4 Nov 2026
portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_dateSeller motivation · as of 4 Nov 2026
property_intelligencetransactions_12moRisk & liquidity

Sold comparables in depth

Risks

What could kill this deal

Score confidence is low
largely a single source - treat the number as a prompt, not a conclusion
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
rent estimate 3350/mo (range 2900-3800)
Seller motivation could not be scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 113 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge

Property risk deep-dive →

Plan

Before you offer

1. Get two written rental appraisals from local lettings agents.
The rent estimate rests on area-level evidence, not lettings on this street.
2. Commission a full structural survey, not a basic condition report.
The score prices market evidence, not the fabric of the building.

Every step above was generated from a specific gap or flag in the evidence - no generic advice, no invented tasks.

Valuation & Market

Sale Estimate£1,045,000

Rent Estimate (pcm)£3,350

Gross Yield3.83%

1y Growth-

3y Growth-1.5%

5y Growth+0.2%

10y Growth+2.5%

Last Sold Price£880,000 (2008-08-06)

View Market Details

Risk Overview

Flood RiskUnknown
SubsidenceLow
RadonLow
MiningLow
LandslideModerate
Air QualityLow
NoiseWithheld

View Full Risk Report

Planning Activity

Recent Apps

0NP25 3HN

Approval Rate

-12mo

Development

low

DM/2026/01290
Proposed single storey detached bungalow on plot at 5 The Gardens, Monmouth NP25 3HF.
Pending
DM/2026/01146
Works to 3 trees. 1. Ash adjacent to boundary wall and shed: multi-stem tree with v-fork at 30cm previously pollarded at least 3 times. Proposed removal. 2. Holly, male, adjacent to boundary wall: multi-stem tree previously pollarded at least 3 times. Proposed removal. 3. Lawson's Cypress adjacent to boundary wall. Previously cut back, now multi-stem overhanging boundary. Proposed reduction by 2m in height and formative pruning in the cloud pruning Iniwaki style.
Approved
DM/2026/01016
Existing residential property seeking confirmation that it will not require a change of use to become a supported living accomodation.
Pending

View Planning Timeline