16 Church Road, Caldicot, NP26 4HN

UPRN:10033341670Detached House5 bedsBuilt 1967-1975

FreeholdCouncil Tax: Band FEPC: C (74)

Data freshness:Listing· freshPlanning· 2mo agoOwnership· 1mo agoEPC· 6mo agoRisk· 2y agoConnectivity· 1mo agoSchools· 1mo agoAmenities· 2mo agoArea· Census 2021

HP Score

/ 100

Mixed

Verdict

4 days ago

Verdict: INVESTIGATE, on a scale of Buy, Investigate, Avoid.
Mixed signals - investigate

Evidence

18 of 21 sources

Sale Estimate

£647,000

£614k - £679kHigh

Estimate

£647k

Range

£614k – £679k

Rent Estimate (pcm)

£2,150

£2k - £2k

Monthly

£2,150

Yield

3.97%

Verdict

Derived from HomePortfolio scores

16 Church Road earns an INVESTIGATE rating with HP Score 70/100. Investment score 71/100 reflects strong fundamentals. Crime intensity is moderate. Flood risk is not assessed: check the Environment Agency long-term flood map before offering. Tenure is freehold. Every figure here comes from the live HomePortfolio API; anything it does not publish is left out.

Key SourcesEPC RegisterPortal listingsOfcom Connected NationsOfcom mobile coverageMarket estimates (third-party AVM)HM Land Registry sales matched to addressONS Census 2021Police.ukHM Land Registry company ownershipHM Land Registry covenantsHM Land Registry leasesHM Land Registry Price PaidPlanIt / council planning portalsOverture Maps PlacesOfsted / DfE GIAS

HP Score

70/ 100

Mixed

Investment Score

71/ 100

High

Crime Score

41/ 100

Elevated

Walkability

No data

Transit & Bike

No data

Opportunity

Why this could be an opportunity

Low confidence0 independent sourcesListing checked 4 Nov 2026

This rests largely on a single source. Treat the score as a prompt to investigate, not a conclusion.

Valuation edge0/15
claims [AVM -0.5% (HIGH), sold-comps -25.7%, £/sqft -25.8%] → measured edge +0.00pp of the ask; on later-registered sales an AVM discount carried no edge and a sold-evidence gap at most +0.5pp
Market estimate used (HIGH confidence) · snapshot 13 Oct 2026
- valuation_snapshotsestimate for 10033341670· as of 13 Oct 2026
- property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 12 comps, dispersion 16.2%· as of 28 Oct 2026
Rental economics0/40
gross yield 4.0%; range width penalty ×0.73
- valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 2150/mo (range 1900-2400)· as of 13 Oct 2026· verify before relying on this
Stress margin0/30
stressed cash flow -1,292/mo, -60% of rent (6.75% on a 75% loan; no service charge or ground rent disclosed); fails the stress - earns nothing
- underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advert· as of 4 Nov 2026
Seller motivationNot scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 123 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge
- portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_date· as of 4 Nov 2026
Risk & liquidity14.6/15
255 sales/12mo in area; valuation range width 10%
- property_intelligencetransactions_12mo

4 of 4 components scored. Ranks on gross yield, the stress margin, risk and disclosed facts. A pricing claim earns only its measured edge: today 0 for the market estimate and at most +0.5pp for sold evidence. The score itself is not yet checked against the outcomes of homes it scored.

Economics

What happens to your money

Price sensitivity

£487,500£747,500

The same scorer re-run at hypothetical asking prices, holding rent, comps and listing history constant. Not a prediction of what the seller would accept.

Your assumptions

Purchase price£650,000

At the asking price

Monthly rent£2,150/mo

Evidenced range £1,900-£2,400

Interest rate5.4%

Loan to value75%

Cash required: £218,800
Net cash flow: -£705/mo
Cash on cash: -3.9%
Score at this price: 15

After a 8% void allowance, 15% management and 10% maintenance. Lender coverage (rent ÷ interest): 0.98 - below the usual 1.25 test. These are your assumptions, not evidence: only the pre-filled rent and price come from the record.

Evidence

Where every number comes from

valuation_snapshotsestimate for 10033341670Valuation edge · as of 13 Oct 2026
property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 12 comps, dispersion 16.2%Valuation edge · as of 28 Oct 2026
valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 2150/mo (range 1900-2400)Rental economics · as of 13 Oct 2026 · verify before relying on this
underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advertStress margin · as of 4 Nov 2026
portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_dateSeller motivation · as of 4 Nov 2026

Risks

What could kill this deal

Score confidence is low
largely a single source - treat the number as a prompt, not a conclusion
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
rent estimate 2150/mo (range 1900-2400)
Seller motivation could not be scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 123 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge

Property risk deep-dive →

Plan

Before you offer

1. Get two written rental appraisals from local lettings agents.
The rent estimate rests on area-level evidence, not lettings on this street.
2. Commission a full structural survey, not a basic condition report.
The score prices market evidence, not the fabric of the building.

Every step above was generated from a specific gap or flag in the evidence - no generic advice, no invented tasks.

Valuation & Market

Sale Estimate£647,000

Rent Estimate (pcm)£2,150

Gross Yield3.97%

1y Growth-

3y Growth-1.0%

5y Growth+2.1%

10y Growth+4.9%

Last Sold Price£455,000 (2021-04-23)

View Market Details

Risk Overview

Flood RiskUnknown
SubsidenceLow
RadonModerate
MiningLow
LandslideLow
Air QualityLow
NoiseWithheld

View Full Risk Report

Planning Activity

Recent Apps

2NP26 4HN

Approval Rate

-12mo

Development

low

DM/2026/01271
Addition of two air conditioning units to the house, one on each side elevation. One above first floor height due to space restrictions.
Pending
DM/2026/01138
Discharge of Condition from consent DM/2023/01030 - Condition 12 - External Finishes (Materials Schedule)
Approved
DM/2026/01134
The extension and alteration of the existing leisure centre to provide new and improved leisure opportunities. Building facade alterations. Additional car parking. Relocated skate park.
Approved

View Planning Timeline