Merlin Cottage, Well Lane, Llanvair Discoed, Chepstow, NP16 6RA

UPRN:10033342243Terrace Property3 bedsBuilt 1900-1929

FreeholdCouncil Tax: -EPC: E (43)

Data freshness:Listing· freshPlanning· 4mo agoOwnership· freshEPC· 6mo agoRisk· 2y agoCrime· freshConnectivity· 1mo agoSchools· 1mo agoAmenities· 2mo agoArea· Census 2021

Merlin Cottage, Well Lane, Llanvair Discoed, Chepstow, NP16 6RA

HP Score

/ 100

Mixed

Verdict

2 days ago

Verdict: INVESTIGATE, on a scale of Buy, Investigate, Avoid.
Mixed signals - investigate

Evidence

16 of 21 sources

Sale Estimate

£358,000

£322k - £393kMedium

Estimate

£358k

Range

£322k – £393k

Rent Estimate (pcm)

£1,500

£1k - £2k

Monthly

£1,500

Yield

1.80%

Verdict

Derived from HomePortfolio scores

Merlin Cottage earns an INVESTIGATE rating with HP Score 62/100. Investment score 60/100 reflects moderate fundamentals. Crime intensity is low. Flood risk is not assessed: check the Environment Agency long-term flood map before offering. Tenure is freehold. Every figure here comes from the live HomePortfolio API; anything it does not publish is left out.

Key SourcesEPC RegisterPortal listingsOfcom Connected NationsOfcom mobile coverageMarket estimates (third-party AVM)HM Land Registry sales matched to addressONS Census 2021Police.ukHM Land Registry covenantsHM Land Registry Price PaidPlanIt / council planning portalsOverture Maps PlacesOfsted / DfE GIAS

HP Score

62/ 100

Mixed

Investment Score

60/ 100

Moderate

Crime Score

23/ 100

Moderate

Walkability

No data

Transit & Bike

No data

Opportunity

Why this could be an opportunity

Low confidence0 independent sourcesLead to verifyListing checked 10 Nov 2026

This rests largely on a single source. Treat the score as a prompt to investigate, not a conclusion.

Check before relying on this score: the advert has 7 bedrooms but the valuation snapshot describes 3 - an extension, conversion or HMO the evidence does not reflect, or a different home. It ranks after every home whose inputs are verified.

Valuation edge-0.6/15
claims [AVM -179.3% (MEDIUM)] → measured edge -0.12pp of the ask; on later-registered sales an AVM discount carried no edge and a sold-evidence gap at most +0.5pp; asking more than 10% above the estimate (measured -0.33pp)
Market estimate used (MEDIUM confidence) · snapshot 14 Nov 2026
- valuation_snapshotsestimate for 10033342243· as of 14 Nov 2026
Rental economics0/40
gross yield 1.8%; range width penalty ×0.87
- valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 1500/mo (range 1400-1650)· as of 14 Nov 2026· verify before relying on this
Stress margin0/30
stressed cash flow -3,246/mo, -216% of rent (6.75% on a 75% loan; no service charge or ground rent disclosed); fails the stress - earns nothing
- underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advert· as of 10 Nov 2026
Seller motivationNot scored
context, not scored: 2 price cut(s), 207 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge
- portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_date· as of 10 Nov 2026
Risk & liquidity12.9/15
226 sales/12mo in area; valuation range width 20%
- property_intelligencetransactions_12mo

4 of 4 components scored. Ranks on gross yield, the stress margin, risk and disclosed facts. A pricing claim earns only its measured edge: today 0 for the market estimate and at most +0.5pp for sold evidence. The score itself is not yet checked against the outcomes of homes it scored.

Economics

What happens to your money

Price sensitivity

£750,000£1,150,000

The same scorer re-run at hypothetical asking prices, holding rent, comps and listing history constant. Not a prediction of what the seller would accept.

Your assumptions

Purchase price£1,000,000

At the asking price

Monthly rent£1,500/mo

Evidenced range £1,400-£1,650

Interest rate5.4%

Loan to value75%

Cash required: £345,050
Net cash flow: -£2,337/mo
Cash on cash: -8.1%
Score at this price: 12

After a 8% void allowance, 15% management and 10% maintenance. Lender coverage (rent ÷ interest): 0.44 - below the usual 1.25 test. These are your assumptions, not evidence: only the pre-filled rent and price come from the record.

Evidence

Where every number comes from

valuation_snapshotsestimate for 10033342243Valuation edge · as of 14 Nov 2026
valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 1500/mo (range 1400-1650)Rental economics · as of 14 Nov 2026 · verify before relying on this
underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advertStress margin · as of 10 Nov 2026
portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_dateSeller motivation · as of 10 Nov 2026
property_intelligencetransactions_12moRisk & liquidity

Sold comparables in depth

Risks

What could kill this deal

Score confidence is low
largely a single source - treat the number as a prompt, not a conclusion
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
rent estimate 1500/mo (range 1400-1650)
Seller motivation could not be scored
context, not scored: 2 price cut(s), 207 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge

Property risk deep-dive →

Plan

Before you offer

1. Get two written rental appraisals from local lettings agents.
The rent estimate rests on area-level evidence, not lettings on this street.
2. Ask the agent why the price was reduced and whether a previous sale fell through.
2 price cut(s) recorded on the listing history.
3. Commission a full structural survey, not a basic condition report.
The score prices market evidence, not the fabric of the building.

Every step above was generated from a specific gap or flag in the evidence - no generic advice, no invented tasks.

Valuation & Market

Sale Estimate£358,000

Rent Estimate (pcm)£1,500

Gross Yield1.80%

1y Growth-

3y Growth+0.1%

5y Growth+2.0%

10y Growth+4.0%

Last Sold Price£180,000 (2011-02-21)

View Market Details

Risk Overview

Flood RiskUnknown
SubsidenceLow
RadonModerate
MiningLow
LandslideLow
Air QualityLow
NoiseWithheld

View Full Risk Report

Planning Activity

Recent Apps

1NP16 6RA

Approval Rate

-12mo

Development

low

DM/2026/00857
Agricultural gateway going out from the yard at Lower House Farm onto the single track road heading to the A48. Proposing putting a farm gateway and short track from the passing place up to the existing track that is already there out the back of the farmyard. The farm track would be in the field directly next to the main farm yard and single track road that heads out of Llanvair Discoed village back to the A48. The passing place is already there and the gateway would be at the edge of this going directly out onto the existing road.
Conditions
DM/2026/00797
Renewal of existing boundary walling.
Pending
DM/2026/00476
Agricultural gateway going out from the yard at Lower House Farm. The passing place is already there and the gateway would be at the edge of this going directly out onto the existing road.
Rejected

View Planning Timeline