River Lodge, Hardwick Hill, Chepstow, NP16 5PN

UPRN:10033342738Detached Bungalow3 bedsBuilt 1967-1975

FreeholdCouncil Tax: Band EEPC: D (68)

Data freshness:Listing· freshPlanning· 4mo agoOwnership· freshEPC· 3mo agoRisk· 2y agoCrime· freshConnectivity· 1mo agoSchools· 1mo agoAmenities· 2mo agoArea· Census 2021Council Tax· 1mo ago

River Lodge, Hardwick Hill, Chepstow, NP16 5PN

HP Score

/ 100

Strong

Verdict

yesterday

Verdict: INVESTIGATE, on a scale of Buy, Investigate, Avoid.
Strong fundamentals; flood risk not assessed

Evidence

15 of 21 sources

Sale Estimate

£352,000

£334k - £369kHigh

Estimate

£352k

Range

£334k – £369k

Rent Estimate (pcm)

£1,200

£1k - £1k

Monthly

£1,200

Yield

5.05%

Verdict

Derived from HomePortfolio scores

River Lodge earns an INVESTIGATE rating with HP Score 79/100. Investment score 64/100 reflects moderate fundamentals. Crime intensity is low. Flood risk is not assessed: check the Environment Agency long-term flood map before offering. Tenure is freehold. Every figure here comes from the live HomePortfolio API; anything it does not publish is left out.

Key SourcesEPC RegisterPortal listingsOfcom Connected NationsOfcom mobile coverageMarket estimates (third-party AVM)ONS Census 2021Police.ukHM Land Registry covenantsHM Land Registry Price PaidPlanIt / council planning portalsOverture Maps PlacesOfsted / DfE GIAS

HP Score

79/ 100

Strong

Investment Score

64/ 100

Moderate

Crime Score

22/ 100

Moderate

Walkability

No data

Transit & Bike

No data

Opportunity

Why this could be an opportunity

Low confidence1 independent sourceLead to verifyListing checked 10 Nov 2026

This rests largely on a single source. Treat the score as a prompt to investigate, not a conclusion.

Check before relying on this score: the estimate sits 19% above the ask. It ranks after every home whose inputs are verified.

Valuation edge2.5/15
claims [AVM +19.0% (HIGH), sold-comps +6.6%, £/sqft +6.6%] → measured edge +0.50pp of the ask; on later-registered sales an AVM discount carried no edge and a sold-evidence gap at most +0.5pp
Market estimate used (HIGH confidence) · snapshot 14 Nov 2026
- valuation_snapshotsestimate for 10033342738· as of 14 Nov 2026
- property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 12 comps, dispersion 12.2%· as of 12 Oct 2026
Rental economics0.3/40
gross yield 5.1%; range width penalty ×0.78; the estimate this rent rides on sits 19% above the ask - check the rent describes the advertised home
- valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 1200/mo (range 1100-1350)· as of 14 Nov 2026· verify before relying on this
- valuation_snapshotssale estimate 19% above the ask on the same snapshot - verify the rent describes this home· as of 14 Nov 2026· verify before relying on this
Stress margin0/30
stressed cash flow -450/mo, -38% of rent (6.75% on a 75% loan; no service charge or ground rent disclosed); fails the stress - earns nothing
- underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advert· as of 10 Nov 2026
Seller motivationNot scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 38 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge
- portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_date· as of 10 Nov 2026
Risk & liquidity14.7/15
226 sales/12mo in area; valuation range width 10%
- property_intelligencetransactions_12mo

4 of 4 components scored. Ranks on gross yield, the stress margin, risk and disclosed facts. A pricing claim earns only its measured edge: today 0 for the market estimate and at most +0.5pp for sold evidence. The score itself is not yet checked against the outcomes of homes it scored.

Economics

What happens to your money

Price sensitivity

£214,000£328,000

The same scorer re-run at hypothetical asking prices, holding rent, comps and listing history constant. Not a prediction of what the seller would accept.

Your assumptions

Purchase price£285,000

At the asking price

Monthly rent£1,200/mo

Evidenced range £1,100-£1,350

Interest rate5.4%

Loan to value75%

Cash required: £91,050
Net cash flow: -£131/mo
Cash on cash: -1.7%
Score at this price: 18

After a 8% void allowance, 15% management and 10% maintenance. Lender coverage (rent ÷ interest): 1.25 - below the usual 1.25 test. These are your assumptions, not evidence: only the pre-filled rent and price come from the record.

Evidence

Where every number comes from

valuation_snapshotsestimate for 10033342738Valuation edge · as of 14 Nov 2026
property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 12 comps, dispersion 12.2%Valuation edge · as of 12 Oct 2026
valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 1200/mo (range 1100-1350)Rental economics · as of 14 Nov 2026 · verify before relying on this
valuation_snapshotssale estimate 19% above the ask on the same snapshot - verify the rent describes this homeRental economics · as of 14 Nov 2026 · verify before relying on this
underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advert

Risks

What could kill this deal

Score confidence is low
largely a single source - treat the number as a prompt, not a conclusion
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
rent estimate 1200/mo (range 1100-1350)
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
sale estimate 19% above the ask on the same snapshot - verify the rent describes this home

Plan

Before you offer

1. Get two written rental appraisals from local lettings agents.
The market estimate this rent rides on sits far above the asking price, so the rent may describe a different home.
2. Treat the gap to the estimate as unproven - compare recent sold prices on the street yourself before pricing an offer around it.
On later completions, homes listed below their estimate sold at the same share of the asking price as the rest.
3. Commission a full structural survey, not a basic condition report.
The score prices market evidence, not the fabric of the building.

Every step above was generated from a specific gap or flag in the evidence - no generic advice, no invented tasks.

Valuation & Market

Sale Estimate£352,000

Rent Estimate (pcm)£1,200

Gross Yield5.05%

1y Growth-

3y Growth+0.1%

5y Growth+2.0%

10y Growth+4.0%

Last Sold Price-

View Market Details

Risk Overview

Flood RiskUnknown
SubsidenceLow
RadonModerate
MiningLow
LandslideLow
Air QualityLow
NoiseWithheld

View Full Risk Report

Planning Activity

Recent Apps

0NP16 5PN

Approval Rate

-12mo

Development

low

DM/2026/01260
The installation of 1 illuminated surround sign and 1 illuminated logo panel (retrospective).
Pending
DM/2026/01259
The installation of an ATM and associated signage (retrospective).
Pending
DM/2026/01220
Installation of a commemorative Twinning Plaque to mark 50 years of Chepstow's twinning with Cormeilles, Normandy, France. The plaque will be installed on the outside wall of the Gatehouse, facing into Cormeilles Square, below the existing plaques 'Place de Cormeilles' and the 40th anniversary plaque
Pending

View Planning Timeline