Church Cottage, Bayfield Road, Mounton, Chepstow, NP16 6AF

UPRN:10033344303Detached House5 bedsBuilt before 1900

FreeholdCouncil Tax: -EPC: F (27)

Data freshness:Listing· freshPrice Paid· freshPlanning· 4mo agoEPC· 6mo agoRisk· 2y agoConnectivity· 1mo agoSchools· 1mo agoAmenities· 2mo agoArea· Census 2021

Church Cottage, Bayfield Road, Mounton, Chepstow, NP16 6AF

HP Score

/ 100

Strong

Verdict

yesterday

Verdict: INVESTIGATE, on a scale of Buy, Investigate, Avoid.
Strong fundamentals; flood risk not assessed

Evidence

16 of 21 sources

Sale Estimate

£797,000

£757k - £836kHigh

Estimate

£797k

Range

£757k – £836k

Rent Estimate (pcm)

£2,850

£3k - £3k

Monthly

£2,850

Yield

4.28%

Verdict

Derived from HomePortfolio scores

Church Cottage earns an INVESTIGATE rating with HP Score 81/100. Investment score 64/100 reflects moderate fundamentals. Crime intensity is very low. Flood risk is not assessed: check the Environment Agency long-term flood map before offering. Tenure is freehold. Every figure here comes from the live HomePortfolio API; anything it does not publish is left out.

Key SourcesEPC RegisterPortal listingsOfcom Connected NationsOfcom mobile coverageMarket estimates (third-party AVM)HM Land Registry sales matched to addressONS Census 2021Police.ukHM Land Registry covenantsHM Land Registry Price PaidPlanIt / council planning portalsOverture Maps PlacesOfsted / DfE GIAS

HP Score

81/ 100

Strong

Investment Score

64/ 100

Moderate

Crime Score

13/ 100

Low

Walkability

No data

Transit & Bike

No data

Opportunity

Why this could be an opportunity

Low confidence0 independent sourcesListing checked 6 Nov 2026

This rests largely on a single source. Treat the score as a prompt to investigate, not a conclusion.

Valuation edge0/15
claims [AVM -0.4% (HIGH)] → measured edge +0.00pp of the ask; on later-registered sales an AVM discount carried no edge and a sold-evidence gap at most +0.5pp
Market estimate used (HIGH confidence) · snapshot 10 Oct 2026
- valuation_snapshotsestimate for 10033344303· as of 10 Oct 2026
Rental economics0/40
gross yield 4.3%; range width penalty ×0.74
- valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 2850/mo (range 2500-3150)· as of 10 Oct 2026· verify before relying on this
Stress margin0/30
stressed cash flow -1,410/mo, -49% of rent (6.75% on a 75% loan; no service charge or ground rent disclosed); fails the stress - earns nothing
- underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advert· as of 6 Nov 2026
Seller motivationNot scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 119 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge
- portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_date· as of 6 Nov 2026
Risk & liquidity14.7/15
226 sales/12mo in area; valuation range width 10%
- property_intelligencetransactions_12mo

4 of 4 components scored. Ranks on gross yield, the stress margin, risk and disclosed facts. A pricing claim earns only its measured edge: today 0 for the market estimate and at most +0.5pp for sold evidence. The score itself is not yet checked against the outcomes of homes it scored.

Economics

What happens to your money

Price sensitivity

£600,000£920,000

The same scorer re-run at hypothetical asking prices, holding rent, comps and listing history constant. Not a prediction of what the seller would accept.

Your assumptions

Purchase price£800,000

At the asking price

Monthly rent£2,850/mo

Evidenced range £2,500-£3,150

Interest rate5.4%

Loan to value75%

Cash required: £271,300
Net cash flow: -£727/mo
Cash on cash: -3.2%
Score at this price: 15

After a 8% void allowance, 15% management and 10% maintenance. Lender coverage (rent ÷ interest): 1.06 - below the usual 1.25 test. These are your assumptions, not evidence: only the pre-filled rent and price come from the record.

Evidence

Where every number comes from

valuation_snapshotsestimate for 10033344303Valuation edge · as of 10 Oct 2026
valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 2850/mo (range 2500-3150)Rental economics · as of 10 Oct 2026 · verify before relying on this
underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advertStress margin · as of 6 Nov 2026
portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_dateSeller motivation · as of 6 Nov 2026
property_intelligencetransactions_12moRisk & liquidity

Sold comparables in depth

Risks

What could kill this deal

Score confidence is low
largely a single source - treat the number as a prompt, not a conclusion
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
rent estimate 2850/mo (range 2500-3150)
Seller motivation could not be scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 119 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge

Property risk deep-dive →

Plan

Before you offer

1. Get two written rental appraisals from local lettings agents.
The rent estimate rests on area-level evidence, not lettings on this street.
2. Commission a full structural survey, not a basic condition report.
The score prices market evidence, not the fabric of the building.

Every step above was generated from a specific gap or flag in the evidence - no generic advice, no invented tasks.

Valuation & Market

Sale Estimate£797,000

Rent Estimate (pcm)£2,850

Gross Yield4.28%

1y Growth-

3y Growth+0.1%

5y Growth+2.0%

10y Growth+4.0%

Last Sold Price£375,000 (2002-08-09)

View Market Details

Risk Overview

Flood RiskUnknown
SubsidenceLow
RadonModerate
MiningLow
LandslideLow
Air QualityLow
NoiseWithheld

View Full Risk Report

Planning Activity

Recent Apps

0NP16 6AF

Approval Rate

-12mo

Development

low

DM/2026/01198
This application is made under Section 191 of the Town and Country Planning Act 1990 for a Lawful Development Certificate confirming that the existing use of the annexe at Hawksbill House as an independent, self-contained single private dwellinghouse within Use Class C3 is lawful. The annexe was originally granted planning permission under reference DC/2009/00909, subject to a condition requiring it to remain ancillary to Hawksbill House. The annexe was subsequently extended under planning permission DC/2016/00636. The annexe has, however, been occupied and used as an independent residential dwelling, separate and autonomous from Hawksbill House, since at least November 2013. The independent residential use has continued continuously to the present date. The occupants have maintained the annexe as a separate household and the annexe has functioned independently from the main dwelling.
Pending
DM/2026/01008
Construction of a new front boundary wall with pedestrian gate and electric sliding vehicle gate.
Rejected
DM/2026/00861
A large dead oak tree on the border between our house and a neighbours (they are in Pyllmeyric Close). Branches (dead) extend into both gardens some distance. Extremely close to telephone lines and greenhouse. Close enough to house to potentially cause some damage if it fell over.
Approved

View Planning Timeline