Newton Brae, Earlswood Road, Shirenewton, Chepstow, NP16 6RG

UPRN:10033351980Detached House3 bedsBuilt 1950-1966

FreeholdCouncil Tax: -EPC: C (69)

Data freshness:Listing· freshPrice Paid· freshPlanning· 4mo agoEPC· 1mo agoRisk· 2y agoConnectivity· 1mo agoSchools· 1mo agoAmenities· 2mo agoArea· Census 2021

Newton Brae, Earlswood Road, Shirenewton, Chepstow, NP16 6RG

HP Score

/ 100

Strong

Verdict

2 days ago

Verdict: INVESTIGATE, on a scale of Buy, Investigate, Avoid.
Strong fundamentals; flood risk not assessed

Evidence

16 of 21 sources

Sale Estimate

£680,000

£544k - £816kLow

Estimate

£680k

Range

£544k – £816k

Rent Estimate (pcm)

£2,400

£2k - £3k

Monthly

£2,400

Yield

4.43%

Verdict

Derived from HomePortfolio scores

Newton Brae earns an INVESTIGATE rating with HP Score 79/100. Investment score 68/100 reflects moderate fundamentals. Crime intensity is very low. Flood risk is not assessed: check the Environment Agency long-term flood map before offering. Tenure is freehold. Every figure here comes from the live HomePortfolio API; anything it does not publish is left out.

Key SourcesEPC RegisterPortal listingsOfcom Connected NationsOfcom mobile coverageMarket estimates (third-party AVM)HM Land Registry sales matched to addressONS Census 2021Police.ukHM Land Registry covenantsHM Land Registry Price PaidPlanIt / council planning portalsOverture Maps PlacesOfsted / DfE GIAS

HP Score

79/ 100

Strong

Investment Score

68/ 100

Moderate

Crime Score

13/ 100

Low

Walkability

No data

Transit & Bike

No data

Opportunity

Why this could be an opportunity

Low confidence0 independent sourcesListing checked 4 Nov 2026

This rests largely on a single source. Treat the score as a prompt to investigate, not a conclusion.

Valuation edge0/15
claims [sold-comps -175.4%, £/sqft -175.1%] → measured edge +0.00pp of the ask; on later-registered sales an AVM discount carried no edge and a sold-evidence gap at most +0.5pp; AVM excluded (estimate confidence LOW below scoring floor)
estimate confidence LOW below scoring floor · snapshot 9 Oct 2026
- property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 10 comps, dispersion 15.8%· as of 6 Nov 2026
Rental economics0/40
gross yield 4.4%; range width penalty ×0.78
- valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 2400/mo (range 2150-2650)· as of 9 Oct 2026· verify before relying on this
Stress margin0/30
stressed cash flow -1,108/mo, -46% of rent (6.75% on a 75% loan; no service charge or ground rent disclosed); fails the stress - earns nothing
- underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advert· as of 4 Nov 2026
Seller motivationNot scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 46 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge
- portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_date· as of 4 Nov 2026
Risk & liquidity9.2/15
226 sales/12mo in area; valuation range width 40%
- property_intelligencetransactions_12mo

4 of 4 components scored. Ranks on gross yield, the stress margin, risk and disclosed facts. A pricing claim earns only its measured edge: today 0 for the market estimate and at most +0.5pp for sold evidence. The score itself is not yet checked against the outcomes of homes it scored.

Economics

What happens to your money

Price sensitivity

£487,500£747,500

The same scorer re-run at hypothetical asking prices, holding rent, comps and listing history constant. Not a prediction of what the seller would accept.

Your assumptions

Purchase price£650,000

At the asking price

Monthly rent£2,400/mo

Evidenced range £2,150-£2,650

Interest rate5.4%

Loan to value75%

Cash required: £218,800
Net cash flow: -£532/mo
Cash on cash: -2.9%
Score at this price: 9

After a 8% void allowance, 15% management and 10% maintenance. Lender coverage (rent ÷ interest): 1.09 - below the usual 1.25 test. These are your assumptions, not evidence: only the pre-filled rent and price come from the record.

Evidence

Where every number comes from

property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 10 comps, dispersion 15.8%Valuation edge · as of 6 Nov 2026
valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 2400/mo (range 2150-2650)Rental economics · as of 9 Oct 2026 · verify before relying on this
underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advertStress margin · as of 4 Nov 2026
portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_dateSeller motivation · as of 4 Nov 2026
property_intelligencetransactions_12moRisk & liquidity

Sold comparables in depth

Risks

What could kill this deal

Score confidence is low
largely a single source - treat the number as a prompt, not a conclusion
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
rent estimate 2400/mo (range 2150-2650)
Seller motivation could not be scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 46 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge

Property risk deep-dive →

Plan

Before you offer

1. Get two written rental appraisals from local lettings agents.
The rent estimate rests on area-level evidence, not lettings on this street.
2. Commission a full structural survey, not a basic condition report.
The score prices market evidence, not the fabric of the building.

Every step above was generated from a specific gap or flag in the evidence - no generic advice, no invented tasks.

Valuation & Market

Sale Estimate£680,000

Rent Estimate (pcm)£2,400

Gross Yield4.43%

1y Growth-

3y Growth+0.1%

5y Growth+2.0%

10y Growth+4.0%

Last Sold Price£450,000 (2018-01-26)

View Market Details

Risk Overview

Flood RiskUnknown
SubsidenceLow
RadonModerate
MiningLow
LandslideLow
Air QualityLow
NoiseWithheld

View Full Risk Report

Planning Activity

Recent Apps

0NP16 6RG

Approval Rate

-12mo

Development

low

DM/2026/00884
Demolition of existing conservatory and erection of a single storey rear extension, a new Juliette balcony, cladding to existing house, porch and outbuilding and internal alterations.
Approved
DM/2026/00831
Permanent retention of mobile home for staff accommodation
Pending
DM/2026/00830
Permanent retention of manager's park-home
Pending

View Planning Timeline