Newlyn, Chapel Lane, Mathern, Chepstow, NP16 6JH

UPRN:10033355327Detached Bungalow3 bedsBuilt 1950-1966

FreeholdCouncil Tax: -EPC: E (43)

Data freshness:Listing· freshPlanning· 2mo agoOwnership· 1mo agoEPC· 4mo agoRisk· 2y agoConnectivity· 1mo agoSchools· 1mo agoAmenities· 2mo agoArea· Census 2021

Newlyn, Chapel Lane, Mathern, Chepstow, NP16 6JH

HP Score

/ 100

Strong

Verdict

4 days ago

Verdict: INVESTIGATE, on a scale of Buy, Investigate, Avoid.
Strong fundamentals; flood risk not assessed

Evidence

16 of 21 sources

Sale Estimate

£549,000

£522k - £576kHigh

Estimate

£549k

Range

£522k – £576k

Rent Estimate (pcm)

£1,950

£2k - £2k

Monthly

£1,950

Yield

4.59%

Verdict

Derived from HomePortfolio scores

Newlyn earns an INVESTIGATE rating with HP Score 80/100. Investment score 60/100 reflects moderate fundamentals. Crime intensity is very low. Flood risk is not assessed: check the Environment Agency long-term flood map before offering. Tenure is freehold. Every figure here comes from the live HomePortfolio API; anything it does not publish is left out.

Key SourcesEPC RegisterPortal listingsOfcom Connected NationsOfcom mobile coverageMarket estimates (third-party AVM)ONS Census 2021Police.ukHM Land Registry covenantsHM Land Registry leasesHM Land Registry Price PaidPlanIt / council planning portalsOverture Maps PlacesOfsted / DfE GIAS

HP Score

80/ 100

Strong

Investment Score

60/ 100

Moderate

Crime Score

13/ 100

Low

Walkability

No data

Transit & Bike

No data

Opportunity

Why this could be an opportunity

Low confidence0 independent sourcesListing checked 3 Nov 2026

This rests largely on a single source. Treat the score as a prompt to investigate, not a conclusion.

Valuation edge0/15
claims [AVM +7.1% (HIGH)] → measured edge +0.00pp of the ask; on later-registered sales an AVM discount carried no edge and a sold-evidence gap at most +0.5pp
Market estimate used (HIGH confidence) · snapshot 13 Oct 2026
- valuation_snapshotsestimate for 10033355327· as of 13 Oct 2026
Rental economics0/40
gross yield 4.6%; range width penalty ×0.79
- valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 1950/mo (range 1750-2150)· as of 13 Oct 2026· verify before relying on this
Stress margin0/30
stressed cash flow -848/mo, -44% of rent (6.75% on a 75% loan; no service charge or ground rent disclosed); fails the stress - earns nothing
- underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advert· as of 3 Nov 2026
Seller motivationNot scored
context, not scored: 1 price cut(s), 165 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge
- portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_date· as of 3 Nov 2026
Risk & liquidity14.7/15
226 sales/12mo in area; valuation range width 10%
- property_intelligencetransactions_12mo

4 of 4 components scored. Ranks on gross yield, the stress margin, risk and disclosed facts. A pricing claim earns only its measured edge: today 0 for the market estimate and at most +0.5pp for sold evidence. The score itself is not yet checked against the outcomes of homes it scored.

Economics

What happens to your money

Price sensitivity

£382,500£586,500

The same scorer re-run at hypothetical asking prices, holding rent, comps and listing history constant. Not a prediction of what the seller would accept.

Your assumptions

Purchase price£510,000

At the asking price

Monthly rent£1,950/mo

Evidenced range £1,750-£2,150

Interest rate5.4%

Loan to value75%

Cash required: £169,800
Net cash flow: -£371/mo
Cash on cash: -2.6%
Score at this price: 15

After a 8% void allowance, 15% management and 10% maintenance. Lender coverage (rent ÷ interest): 1.13 - below the usual 1.25 test. These are your assumptions, not evidence: only the pre-filled rent and price come from the record.

Evidence

Where every number comes from

valuation_snapshotsestimate for 10033355327Valuation edge · as of 13 Oct 2026
valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 1950/mo (range 1750-2150)Rental economics · as of 13 Oct 2026 · verify before relying on this
underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advertStress margin · as of 3 Nov 2026
portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_dateSeller motivation · as of 3 Nov 2026
property_intelligencetransactions_12moRisk & liquidity

Sold comparables in depth

Risks

What could kill this deal

Score confidence is low
largely a single source - treat the number as a prompt, not a conclusion
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
rent estimate 1950/mo (range 1750-2150)
Seller motivation could not be scored
context, not scored: 1 price cut(s), 165 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge

Property risk deep-dive →

Plan

Before you offer

1. Get two written rental appraisals from local lettings agents.
The rent estimate rests on area-level evidence, not lettings on this street.
2. Ask the agent why the price was reduced and whether a previous sale fell through.
1 price cut(s) recorded on the listing history.
3. Treat the gap to the estimate as unproven - compare recent sold prices on the street yourself before pricing an offer around it.
On later completions, homes listed below their estimate sold at the same share of the asking price as the rest.
4. Commission a full structural survey, not a basic condition report.
The score prices market evidence, not the fabric of the building.

Valuation & Market

Sale Estimate£549,000

Rent Estimate (pcm)£1,950

Gross Yield4.59%

1y Growth-

3y Growth+0.1%

5y Growth+2.0%

10y Growth+4.0%

Last Sold Price-

View Market Details

Risk Overview

Flood RiskUnknown
SubsidenceLow
RadonModerate
MiningLow
LandslideLow
Air QualityLow
NoiseWithheld

View Full Risk Report

Planning Activity

Recent Apps

0NP16 6JH

Approval Rate

-12mo

Development

low

DM/2026/01163
Discharge of condition 3 relating to planning DM/2025/00580 (materials).
Pending
DM/2026/01143
Internal ground floor alterations and single storey rear flat roof extension with master bedroom access to first floor small garden terrace.
Pending
DM/2026/01040
Extension to current Garage structure to meet the boundary at the back and side of the current Garage. The Garage side and back will with then become the boundary which is currently provided by a stand alone fence. No other aspects of the garage will be changed as in its height or roof construction type.
Approved

View Planning Timeline