The Croft, Earlswood Chapel Road, Earlswood, Chepstow, NP16 6RE

UPRN:10033355447Detached House5 bedsBuilt 1983-1990

FreeholdCouncil Tax: -EPC: C (78)

Data freshness:Listing· freshPrice Paid· freshPlanning· 4mo agoEPC· 1mo agoRisk· 2y agoConnectivity· 1mo agoSchools· 1mo agoAmenities· 1mo agoArea· Census 2021

The Croft, Earlswood Chapel Road, Earlswood, Chepstow, NP16 6RE

HP Score

/ 100

Mixed

Verdict

yesterday

Verdict: INVESTIGATE, on a scale of Buy, Investigate, Avoid.
Mixed signals - investigate

Evidence

12 of 21 sources

Sale Estimate

£977,000

£879k - £1.07MMedium

Estimate

£977k

Range

£879k – £1.07M

Rent Estimate (pcm)

£3,450

£3k - £4k

Monthly

£3,450

Yield

3.25%

Verdict

Derived from HomePortfolio scores

The Croft earns an INVESTIGATE rating with HP Score 71/100. Investment score 67/100 reflects moderate fundamentals. Crime intensity is very low. Flood risk is not assessed: check the Environment Agency long-term flood map before offering. Tenure is freehold. Every figure here comes from the live HomePortfolio API; anything it does not publish is left out.

Key SourcesEPC RegisterPortal listingsOfcom Connected NationsMarket estimates (third-party AVM)ONS Census 2021Police.ukHM Land Registry covenantsHM Land Registry Price PaidOverture Maps PlacesOfsted / DfE GIAS

HP Score

71/ 100

Mixed

Investment Score

67/ 100

Moderate

Crime Score

13/ 100

Low

Walkability

No data

Transit & Bike

No data

Opportunity

Why this could be an opportunity

Low confidence0 independent sourcesListing checked 4 Nov 2026

This rests largely on a single source. Treat the score as a prompt to investigate, not a conclusion.

Valuation edge-0.6/15
claims [AVM -30.5% (MEDIUM), sold-comps -45.4%, £/sqft -45.3%] → measured edge -0.12pp of the ask; on later-registered sales an AVM discount carried no edge and a sold-evidence gap at most +0.5pp; asking more than 10% above the estimate (measured -0.33pp)
Market estimate used (MEDIUM confidence) · snapshot 13 Oct 2026
- valuation_snapshotsestimate for 10033355447· as of 13 Oct 2026
- property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 9 comps, dispersion 10%· as of 1 Nov 2026
Rental economics0/40
gross yield 3.2%; range width penalty ×0.77
- valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 3450/mo (range 3100-3850)· as of 13 Oct 2026· verify before relying on this
Stress margin0/30
stressed cash flow -2,973/mo, -86% of rent (6.75% on a 75% loan; no service charge or ground rent disclosed); fails the stress - earns nothing
- underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advert· as of 4 Nov 2026
Seller motivationNot scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 43 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge
- portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_date· as of 4 Nov 2026
Risk & liquidity12.8/15
226 sales/12mo in area; valuation range width 20%
- property_intelligencetransactions_12mo

4 of 4 components scored. Ranks on gross yield, the stress margin, risk and disclosed facts. A pricing claim earns only its measured edge: today 0 for the market estimate and at most +0.5pp for sold evidence. The score itself is not yet checked against the outcomes of homes it scored.

Economics

What happens to your money

Price sensitivity

£956,000£1,466,000

The same scorer re-run at hypothetical asking prices, holding rent, comps and listing history constant. Not a prediction of what the seller would accept.

Your assumptions

Purchase price£1,275,000

At the asking price

Monthly rent£3,450/mo

Evidenced range £3,100-£3,850

Interest rate5.4%

Loan to value75%

Cash required: £455,050
Net cash flow: -£1,915/mo
Cash on cash: -5.0%
Score at this price: 12

After a 8% void allowance, 15% management and 10% maintenance. Lender coverage (rent ÷ interest): 0.80 - below the usual 1.25 test. These are your assumptions, not evidence: only the pre-filled rent and price come from the record.

Evidence

Where every number comes from

valuation_snapshotsestimate for 10033355447Valuation edge · as of 13 Oct 2026
property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 9 comps, dispersion 10%Valuation edge · as of 1 Nov 2026
valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 3450/mo (range 3100-3850)Rental economics · as of 13 Oct 2026 · verify before relying on this
underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advertStress margin · as of 4 Nov 2026
portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_dateSeller motivation · as of 4 Nov 2026

Risks

What could kill this deal

Score confidence is low
largely a single source - treat the number as a prompt, not a conclusion
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
rent estimate 3450/mo (range 3100-3850)
Seller motivation could not be scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 43 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge

Property risk deep-dive →

Plan

Before you offer

1. Get two written rental appraisals from local lettings agents.
The rent estimate rests on area-level evidence, not lettings on this street.
2. Commission a full structural survey, not a basic condition report.
The score prices market evidence, not the fabric of the building.

Every step above was generated from a specific gap or flag in the evidence - no generic advice, no invented tasks.