40 Merton Green, Caerwent, Caldicot, NP26 5AT

UPRN:10033363244Detached House4 bedsBuilt 2012 onwards

FreeholdCouncil Tax: -EPC: C (80)

Data freshness:Planning· 4mo agoOwnership· 1mo agoEPC· 6mo agoRisk· 2y agoConnectivity· 1mo agoSchools· 1mo agoAmenities· 2mo agoArea· Census 2021

40 Merton Green, Caerwent, Caldicot, NP26 5AT

HP Score

/ 100

Mixed

Verdict

yesterday

Verdict: INVESTIGATE, on a scale of Buy, Investigate, Avoid.
Mixed signals - investigate

Evidence

16 of 21 sources

Sale Estimate

£512,000

£486k - £537kHigh

Estimate

£512k

Range

£486k – £537k

Rent Estimate (pcm)

£1,700

£2k - £2k

Monthly

£1,700

Yield

4.08%

Verdict

Derived from HomePortfolio scores

40 Merton Green earns an INVESTIGATE rating with HP Score 72/100. Investment score 67/100 reflects moderate fundamentals. Crime intensity is low. Flood risk is not assessed: check the Environment Agency long-term flood map before offering. Tenure is freehold. Every figure here comes from the live HomePortfolio API; anything it does not publish is left out.

Key SourcesEPC RegisterPortal listingsOfcom Connected NationsOfcom mobile coverageMarket estimates (third-party AVM)HM Land Registry sales matched to addressONS Census 2021Police.ukHM Land Registry covenantsHM Land Registry Price PaidPlanIt / council planning portalsOverture Maps PlacesOfsted / DfE GIAS

HP Score

72/ 100

Mixed

Investment Score

67/ 100

Moderate

Crime Score

21/ 100

Moderate

Walkability

No data

Transit & Bike

No data

Opportunity

Why this could be an opportunity

Low confidence0 independent sourcesListing checked 3 Nov 2026

This rests largely on a single source. Treat the score as a prompt to investigate, not a conclusion.

Valuation edge0/15
claims [AVM +2.3% (HIGH), sold-comps -9.2%, £/sqft -9.2%] → measured edge +0.00pp of the ask; on later-registered sales an AVM discount carried no edge and a sold-evidence gap at most +0.5pp
Market estimate used (HIGH confidence) · snapshot 9 Nov 2026
- valuation_snapshotsestimate for 10033363244· as of 9 Nov 2026
- property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 12 comps, dispersion 14.4%· as of 27 Oct 2026
Rental economics0/40
gross yield 4.1%; range width penalty ×0.73
- valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 1700/mo (range 1500-1900)· as of 9 Nov 2026· verify before relying on this
Stress margin0/30
stressed cash flow -990/mo, -58% of rent (6.75% on a 75% loan; no service charge or ground rent disclosed); fails the stress - earns nothing
- underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advert· as of 3 Nov 2026
Seller motivationNot scored
context, not scored: 2 price cut(s), 164 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge
- portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_date· as of 3 Nov 2026
Risk & liquidity14.6/15
255 sales/12mo in area; valuation range width 10%
- property_intelligencetransactions_12mo

4 of 4 components scored. Ranks on gross yield, the stress margin, risk and disclosed facts. A pricing claim earns only its measured edge: today 0 for the market estimate and at most +0.5pp for sold evidence. The score itself is not yet checked against the outcomes of homes it scored.

Economics

What happens to your money

Price sensitivity

£375,000£575,000

The same scorer re-run at hypothetical asking prices, holding rent, comps and listing history constant. Not a prediction of what the seller would accept.

Your assumptions

Purchase price£500,000

At the asking price

Monthly rent£1,700/mo

Evidenced range £1,500-£1,900

Interest rate5.4%

Loan to value75%

Cash required: £166,300
Net cash flow: -£511/mo
Cash on cash: -3.7%
Score at this price: 15

After a 8% void allowance, 15% management and 10% maintenance. Lender coverage (rent ÷ interest): 1.01 - below the usual 1.25 test. These are your assumptions, not evidence: only the pre-filled rent and price come from the record.

Evidence

Where every number comes from

valuation_snapshotsestimate for 10033363244Valuation edge · as of 9 Nov 2026
property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 12 comps, dispersion 14.4%Valuation edge · as of 27 Oct 2026
valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 1700/mo (range 1500-1900)Rental economics · as of 9 Nov 2026 · verify before relying on this
underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advertStress margin · as of 3 Nov 2026
portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_dateSeller motivation · as of 3 Nov 2026

Risks

What could kill this deal

Score confidence is low
largely a single source - treat the number as a prompt, not a conclusion
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
rent estimate 1700/mo (range 1500-1900)
Seller motivation could not be scored
context, not scored: 2 price cut(s), 164 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge

Property risk deep-dive →

Plan

Before you offer

1. Get two written rental appraisals from local lettings agents.
The rent estimate rests on area-level evidence, not lettings on this street.
2. Ask the agent why the price was reduced and whether a previous sale fell through.
2 price cut(s) recorded on the listing history.
3. Treat the gap to the estimate as unproven - compare recent sold prices on the street yourself before pricing an offer around it.
On later completions, homes listed below their estimate sold at the same share of the asking price as the rest.
4. Commission a full structural survey, not a basic condition report.
The score prices market evidence, not the fabric of the building.

Valuation & Market

Sale Estimate£512,000

Rent Estimate (pcm)£1,700

Gross Yield4.08%

1y Growth-

3y Growth-1.0%

5y Growth+2.1%

10y Growth+4.9%

Last Sold Price£345,000 (2014-06-24)

View Market Details

Risk Overview

Flood RiskUnknown
SubsidenceLow
RadonModerate
MiningLow
LandslideLow
Air QualityLow
NoiseWithheld

View Full Risk Report

Planning Activity

Recent Apps

0NP26 5AT

Approval Rate

-12mo

Development

low

DM/2026/01147
Dig holes x10 and installing metal posts as well as a metal gate and height restricting barrier at entrance to the car park. There will be 8 security bollards and x2 posts at a depth of 900 mm The 2 posts allow for gate and height restricting barrier to be attached and locked.
Approved
DM/2026/01082
Convert garage to part of house
Pending
DM/2026/00925
The project is to redevelop the old Wash House into a Scriptorium. The Scriptorium will be a space where a library of books will be stored, a place for reading, studying and writing. The space will be used for the applicants own office activities. It is noted that books of value will be retained in an alternative secure location. The works require upgrades to the building fabric to preserve the building, whilst also making it a habitable space. There is also the proposal to include for a singular roof light to the south pitch of the roof, and the incorporation of external grilles for the intake and extract of the proposed MVHR unit.
Pending

View Planning Timeline