Willow Cottage, Beechgrove, Cardiff Road, Troedyrhiw, Merthyr Tydfil, CF48 4LH

UPRN:10034659918Semi-Detached House3 bedsBuilt 1900-1929

FreeholdCouncil Tax: -EPC: C (69)

Data freshness:Planning· 4mo agoEPC· 6mo agoRisk· 2y agoConnectivity· 1mo agoSchools· 1mo agoAmenities· 2mo agoArea· Census 2021

Willow Cottage, Beechgrove, Cardiff Road, Troedyrhiw, Merthyr Tydfil, CF48 4LH

HP Score

/ 100

Strong

Verdict

4 days ago

Verdict: INVESTIGATE, on a scale of Buy, Investigate, Avoid.
Strong fundamentals; flood risk not assessed

Evidence

15 of 21 sources

Sale Estimate

£163,000

£147k - £180kMedium

Estimate

£163k

Range

£147k – £180k

Rent Estimate (pcm)

£900

£850 - £950

Monthly

£900

Yield

6.35%

Verdict

Derived from HomePortfolio scores

Willow Cottage earns an INVESTIGATE rating with HP Score 77/100. Investment score 72/100 reflects strong fundamentals. Crime intensity is low. Flood risk is not assessed: check the Environment Agency long-term flood map before offering. Tenure is freehold. Every figure here comes from the live HomePortfolio API; anything it does not publish is left out.

Key SourcesEPC RegisterPortal listingsOfcom Connected NationsMarket estimates (third-party AVM)HM Land Registry sales matched to addressONS Census 2021Police.ukHM Land Registry covenantsHM Land Registry Price PaidPlanIt / council planning portalsOverture Maps PlacesOfsted / DfE GIAS

HP Score

77/ 100

Strong

Investment Score

72/ 100

High

Crime Score

21/ 100

Moderate

Walkability

No data

Transit & Bike

No data

Opportunity

Why this could be an opportunity

Low confidence0 independent sourcesListing checked 2 Nov 2026

This rests largely on a single source. Treat the score as a prompt to investigate, not a conclusion.

Valuation edge0/15
claims [AVM -4.3% (MEDIUM), sold-comps -21.4%, £/sqft -21.2%] → measured edge +0.00pp of the ask; on later-registered sales an AVM discount carried no edge and a sold-evidence gap at most +0.5pp
Market estimate used (MEDIUM confidence) · snapshot 12 Oct 2026
- valuation_snapshotsestimate for 10034659918· as of 12 Oct 2026
- property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 12 comps, dispersion 13.6%· as of 12 Oct 2026
Rental economics10.6/40
gross yield 6.4%; range width penalty ×0.98
- valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 900/mo (range 850-950)· as of 12 Oct 2026· verify before relying on this
Stress margin0/30
stressed cash flow -186/mo, -21% of rent (6.75% on a 75% loan; no service charge or ground rent disclosed); fails the stress - earns nothing
- underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advert· as of 2 Nov 2026
Seller motivationNot scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 35 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge
- portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_date· as of 2 Nov 2026
Risk & liquidity12.8/15
223 sales/12mo in area; valuation range width 20%
- property_intelligencetransactions_12mo

4 of 4 components scored. Ranks on gross yield, the stress margin, risk and disclosed facts. A pricing claim earns only its measured edge: today 0 for the market estimate and at most +0.5pp for sold evidence. The score itself is not yet checked against the outcomes of homes it scored.

Economics

What happens to your money

Price sensitivity

£127,500£195,500

The same scorer re-run at hypothetical asking prices, holding rent, comps and listing history constant. Not a prediction of what the seller would accept.

Your assumptions

Purchase price£170,000

At the asking price

Monthly rent£900/mo

Evidenced range £850-£950

Interest rate5.4%

Loan to value75%

Cash required: £53,200
Net cash flow: £49/mo
Cash on cash: 1.1%
Score at this price: 23

After a 8% void allowance, 15% management and 10% maintenance. Lender coverage (rent ÷ interest): 1.57 - clears the usual 1.25 test. These are your assumptions, not evidence: only the pre-filled rent and price come from the record.

Evidence

Where every number comes from

valuation_snapshotsestimate for 10034659918Valuation edge · as of 12 Oct 2026
property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 12 comps, dispersion 13.6%Valuation edge · as of 12 Oct 2026
valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 900/mo (range 850-950)Rental economics · as of 12 Oct 2026 · verify before relying on this
underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advertStress margin · as of 2 Nov 2026
portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_dateSeller motivation · as of 2 Nov 2026

Risks

What could kill this deal

Score confidence is low
largely a single source - treat the number as a prompt, not a conclusion
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
rent estimate 900/mo (range 850-950)
Seller motivation could not be scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 35 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge

Property risk deep-dive →

Plan

Before you offer

1. Get two written rental appraisals from local lettings agents.
The rent estimate rests on area-level evidence, not lettings on this street.
2. Commission a full structural survey, not a basic condition report.
The score prices market evidence, not the fabric of the building.

Every step above was generated from a specific gap or flag in the evidence - no generic advice, no invented tasks.

Valuation & Market

Sale Estimate£163,000

Rent Estimate (pcm)£900

Gross Yield6.35%

1y Growth-

3y Growth+1.1%

5y Growth+2.1%

10y Growth+4.8%

Last Sold Price£32,500 (2018-11-23)

View Market Details

Risk Overview

Flood RiskUnknown
SubsidenceLow
RadonModerate
MiningLow
LandslideSignificant
Air QualityLow
NoiseWithheld

View Full Risk Report

Planning Activity

Recent Apps

0CF48 4LH

Approval Rate

-12mo

Development

low

P/26/0226
Create front parking area with associated ground re-profiling works
Pending
P/26/0150
Rear dormer roof extension (lawful development certificate)
Approved
P/26/0071
Replacement of two existing windows with new doors and removal of an additional existing window. Replacement of the existing external fence with a new 2.4m-high fence and provision of hardstanding
Approved

View Planning Timeline