2 Blackthorn Grove, Orpington, BR5 2FG

UPRN:10070016217Mid Terrace House3 bedsBuilt 2012-2021

FreeholdCouncil Tax: Band DEPC: C (80)

Data freshness:Planning· 4mo agoEPC· 1mo agoRisk· 5mo agoConnectivity· 1mo agoSchools· 1mo agoAmenities· 2mo agoArea· Census 2021

HP Score

/ 100

Strong

Verdict

3 days ago

Verdict: INVESTIGATE, on a scale of Buy, Investigate, Avoid.
Strong fundamentals; flood risk not assessed

Evidence

18 of 21 sources

Sale Estimate

£538,000

£511k - £565kHigh

Estimate

£538k

Range

£511k – £565k

Rent Estimate (pcm)

£2,700

£3k - £3k

Monthly

£2,700

Yield

6.82%

Verdict

Derived from HomePortfolio scores

2 Blackthorn Grove earns an INVESTIGATE rating with HP Score 75/100. Investment score 74/100 reflects strong fundamentals. Crime intensity is moderate. Walkability is good (77/100). Flood risk is not assessed: check the Environment Agency long-term flood map before offering. Tenure is freehold. Every figure here comes from the live HomePortfolio API; anything it does not publish is left out.

Key SourcesEPC RegisterPortal listingsOfcom Connected NationsMarket estimates (third-party AVM)HM Land Registry sales matched to addressDefra strategic noise mapping, England Round 4 (Contains Defra data © Crown copyright and database right 2023-2024, Open Government Licence v3.0)Walk ScoreONS Census 2021Police.ukHM Land Registry company ownershipHM Land Registry covenantsHM Land Registry Price PaidPlanIt / council planning portalsOverture Maps PlacesOfsted / DfE GIAS

HP Score

75/ 100

Strong

Investment Score

74/ 100

High

Crime Score

45/ 100

Elevated

Walkability

77/ 100

High

Transit & Bike

Transit 44Bike 66

Walk Score, out of 100

Opportunity

Why this could be an opportunity

Low confidence1 independent sourceListing checked 2 Nov 2026

This rests largely on a single source. Treat the score as a prompt to investigate, not a conclusion.

Valuation edge2.5/15
claims [AVM +11.7% (HIGH), sold-comps +17.4%, £/sqft +17.4%] → measured edge +0.50pp of the ask; on later-registered sales an AVM discount carried no edge and a sold-evidence gap at most +0.5pp
Market estimate used (HIGH confidence) · snapshot 12 Oct 2026
- valuation_snapshotsestimate for 10070016217· as of 12 Oct 2026
- property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 12 comps, dispersion 8.5%· as of 3 Nov 2026
Rental economics13.2/40
gross yield 6.8%; range width penalty ×0.90
- valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 2700/mo (range 2500-2900)· as of 12 Oct 2026· verify before relying on this
Stress margin0/30
stressed cash flow -149/mo, -6% of rent (6.75% on a 75% loan; no service charge or ground rent disclosed); fails the stress - earns nothing
- underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advert· as of 2 Nov 2026
Seller motivationNot scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 43 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge
- portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_date· as of 2 Nov 2026
Risk & liquidity14.6/15
365 sales/12mo in area; valuation range width 10%
- property_intelligencetransactions_12mo

4 of 4 components scored. Ranks on gross yield, the stress margin, risk and disclosed facts. A pricing claim earns only its measured edge: today 0 for the market estimate and at most +0.5pp for sold evidence. The score itself is not yet checked against the outcomes of homes it scored.

Economics

What happens to your money

Price sensitivity

£356,000£546,000

The same scorer re-run at hypothetical asking prices, holding rent, comps and listing history constant. Not a prediction of what the seller would accept.

Your assumptions

Purchase price£475,000

At the asking price

Monthly rent£2,700/mo

Evidenced range £2,500-£2,900

Interest rate5.4%

Loan to value75%

Cash required: £157,550
Net cash flow: £266/mo
Cash on cash: 2.0%
Score at this price: 30

After a 8% void allowance, 15% management and 10% maintenance. Lender coverage (rent ÷ interest): 1.68 - clears the usual 1.25 test. These are your assumptions, not evidence: only the pre-filled rent and price come from the record.

Evidence

Where every number comes from

valuation_snapshotsestimate for 10070016217Valuation edge · as of 12 Oct 2026
property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 12 comps, dispersion 8.5%Valuation edge · as of 3 Nov 2026
valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 2700/mo (range 2500-2900)Rental economics · as of 12 Oct 2026 · verify before relying on this
underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advertStress margin · as of 2 Nov 2026
portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_dateSeller motivation · as of 2 Nov 2026

Risks

What could kill this deal

Score confidence is low
largely a single source - treat the number as a prompt, not a conclusion
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
rent estimate 2700/mo (range 2500-2900)
Seller motivation could not be scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 43 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge

Property risk deep-dive →

Plan

Before you offer

1. Get two written rental appraisals from local lettings agents.
The rent estimate rests on area-level evidence, not lettings on this street.
2. Treat the gap to the estimate as unproven - compare recent sold prices on the street yourself before pricing an offer around it.
On later completions, homes listed below their estimate sold at the same share of the asking price as the rest.
3. Commission a full structural survey, not a basic condition report.
The score prices market evidence, not the fabric of the building.

Every step above was generated from a specific gap or flag in the evidence - no generic advice, no invented tasks.

Valuation & Market

Sale Estimate£538,000

Rent Estimate (pcm)£2,700

Gross Yield6.82%

1y Growth-

3y Growth+1.9%

5y Growth+1.6%

10y Growth+2.8%

Last Sold Price£505,000 (2021-08-20)

View Market Details

Risk Overview

Flood RiskUnknown
SubsidenceSignificant
RadonLow
MiningSignificant
LandslideLow
Air QualityLow
NoiseLow

View Full Risk Report

Planning Activity

Recent Apps

0BR5 2FG

Approval Rate

-12mo

Development

low

26/04254/TCA
1. Conifer in front garden - Remove. 2. Conifer in front garden - Reduce by approximately 1/3.
Pending
26/04197/LDC
Use of property as a 6-bedroom 6 person HMO (Use Class C4) LAWFUL DEVELOPMENT CERTIFICATE (EXISTING)
Pending
26/04176/LDC
Part use of property to use as private TFL operator. LAWFUL DEVELOPMENT CERTIFICATE (PROPOSED)
Pending

View Planning Timeline