New Croft, Sevenoaks Way, Orpington, BR5 3JE

UPRN:10070024084Semi-Detached House4 bedsBuilt -

FreeholdCouncil Tax: -EPC: -

Data freshness:Listing· freshPlanning· 4mo agoRisk· 5mo agoConnectivity· 1mo agoSchools· 1mo agoAmenities· 2mo agoArea· Census 2021

New Croft, Sevenoaks Way, Orpington, BR5 3JE

HP Score

/ 100

Mixed

Verdict

3 days ago

Verdict: INVESTIGATE, on a scale of Buy, Investigate, Avoid.
Mixed signals - investigate

Evidence

14 of 21 sources

Sale Estimate

£648,000

£615k - £680kHigh

Estimate

£648k

Range

£615k – £680k

Rent Estimate (pcm)

£2,950

£3k - £3k

Monthly

£2,950

Yield

5.45%

Verdict

Derived from HomePortfolio scores

New Croft earns an INVESTIGATE rating with HP Score 66/100. Investment score 57/100 reflects moderate fundamentals. Crime intensity is moderate. Walkability is limited (48/100). Flood risk is not assessed: check the Environment Agency long-term flood map before offering. Tenure is freehold. Every figure here comes from the live HomePortfolio API; anything it does not publish is left out.

Key SourcesPortal listingsMarket estimates (third-party AVM)Defra strategic noise mapping, England Round 4 (Contains Defra data © Crown copyright and database right 2023-2024, Open Government Licence v3.0)Walk ScoreONS Census 2021Police.ukHM Land Registry covenantsHM Land Registry Price PaidPlanIt / council planning portalsOverture Maps PlacesOfsted / DfE GIAS

HP Score

66/ 100

Mixed

Investment Score

57/ 100

Moderate

Crime Score

37/ 100

Elevated

Walkability

48/ 100

Mixed

Transit & Bike

Transit 34Bike 57

Walk Score, out of 100

Opportunity

Why this could be an opportunity

Low confidence0 independent sourcesListing checked 4 Nov 2026

This rests largely on a single source. Treat the score as a prompt to investigate, not a conclusion.

Valuation edge0/15
claims [AVM -0.3% (HIGH)] → measured edge +0.00pp of the ask; on later-registered sales an AVM discount carried no edge and a sold-evidence gap at most +0.5pp
Market estimate used (HIGH confidence) · snapshot 9 Oct 2026
- valuation_snapshotsestimate for 10070024084· as of 9 Oct 2026
Rental economics3.1/40
gross yield 5.4%; range width penalty ×0.86
- valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 2950/mo (range 2700-3200)· as of 9 Oct 2026· verify before relying on this
Stress margin0/30
stressed cash flow -704/mo, -24% of rent (6.75% on a 75% loan; no service charge or ground rent disclosed); fails the stress - earns nothing
- underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advert· as of 4 Nov 2026
Seller motivationNot scored
context, not scored: 2 price cut(s), 308 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge
- portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_date· as of 4 Nov 2026
Risk & liquidity14.6/15
365 sales/12mo in area; valuation range width 10%
- property_intelligencetransactions_12mo

4 of 4 components scored. Ranks on gross yield, the stress margin, risk and disclosed facts. A pricing claim earns only its measured edge: today 0 for the market estimate and at most +0.5pp for sold evidence. The score itself is not yet checked against the outcomes of homes it scored.

Economics

What happens to your money

Price sensitivity

£487,500£747,500

The same scorer re-run at hypothetical asking prices, holding rent, comps and listing history constant. Not a prediction of what the seller would accept.

Your assumptions

Purchase price£650,000

At the asking price

Monthly rent£2,950/mo

Evidenced range £2,700-£3,200

Interest rate5.4%

Loan to value75%

Cash required: £218,800
Net cash flow: -£151/mo
Cash on cash: -0.8%
Score at this price: 18

After a 8% void allowance, 15% management and 10% maintenance. Lender coverage (rent ÷ interest): 1.34 - clears the usual 1.25 test. These are your assumptions, not evidence: only the pre-filled rent and price come from the record.

Evidence

Where every number comes from

valuation_snapshotsestimate for 10070024084Valuation edge · as of 9 Oct 2026
valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 2950/mo (range 2700-3200)Rental economics · as of 9 Oct 2026 · verify before relying on this
underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advertStress margin · as of 4 Nov 2026
portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_dateSeller motivation · as of 4 Nov 2026
property_intelligencetransactions_12moRisk & liquidity

Sold comparables in depth

Risks

What could kill this deal

Score confidence is low
largely a single source - treat the number as a prompt, not a conclusion
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
rent estimate 2950/mo (range 2700-3200)
Seller motivation could not be scored
context, not scored: 2 price cut(s), 308 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge

Property risk deep-dive →

Plan

Before you offer

1. Get two written rental appraisals from local lettings agents.
The rent estimate rests on area-level evidence, not lettings on this street.
2. Ask the agent why the price was reduced and whether a previous sale fell through.
2 price cut(s) recorded on the listing history.
3. Commission a full structural survey, not a basic condition report.
The score prices market evidence, not the fabric of the building.

Every step above was generated from a specific gap or flag in the evidence - no generic advice, no invented tasks.

Valuation & Market

Sale Estimate£648,000

Rent Estimate (pcm)£2,950

Gross Yield5.45%

1y Growth-

3y Growth+1.9%

5y Growth+1.6%

10y Growth+2.8%

Last Sold Price-

View Market Details

Risk Overview

Flood RiskUnknown
SubsidenceSignificant
RadonLow
MiningSignificant
LandslideLow
Air QualityLow
NoiseHigh

View Full Risk Report

Planning Activity

Recent Apps

2BR5 3JE

Approval Rate

50%12mo

Development

low

26/04241/LDC
Continuous use of property as an HMO (Use Class C4) since 26 August 2022. LAWFUL DEVELOPMENT CERTIFICATE (EXISTING)
Pending
26/04227/LDC
Erection of outbuilding to rear garden for use as gym/office and store. LAWFUL DEVELOPMENT CERTIFICATE (PROPOSED)
Pending
26/04166/LDC
Conversion and extension of existing garage to provide a home office. LAWFUL DEVELOPMENT CERTIFICATE (EXISTING)
Pending

View Planning Timeline

Ownership

Corporate Ownership77%
Overseas OwnershipNo
Lease Term Remaining-
CovenantsRestrictive
Lease TypeFreehold
Last Ownership Change-
SourceLand Registry

View Ownership Details

Connectivity

Broadband (-)

Mobile 4G/5G Coverage

EV Charger

PTAL Rating

View Connectivity Map

Area Profile

Median EarningsLocal authority£43,981

Population Density3,275 /km²

Owner Occupied74%

Age Distribution

0-15 19%16-64 62%65+ 19%

View Area Profile

Schools Nearby

Gray's Farm Primary Academy
0.2 mi
Report card2026
Ofsted no longer awards a single overall grade.
Kemnal Technology College
0.2 mi
Area grades2025
Inspected after Ofsted withdrew the single overall grade.
Midfield Primary School
0.4 mi
Outstanding
Riverside School
0.5 mi
-

1 of 11 nearby schools with published figures were oversubscribed in 2026 - demand, not a catchment.

View All Schools

Comparables

View All

The Croft Sevenoaks Way
-
£560k
-
White Cot Sevenoaks Way
-
£80k
-
Havencroft Sevenoaks Way
-
£34k
-
Mossdale Sevenoaks Way
-
£13k
-

Boundary data not available for this property

No registered title polygon, building footprint, or street match for this property yet.

Why: No HMLR INSPIRE / OSM footprint / OS Open USRN match for this UPRN

Source: HM Land Registry INSPIRE / OpenStreetMap / OS Open USRN