18 Bay House, 584 London Road, Grays, RM20 3BJ

UPRN:10090752580Purpose Built Flat2 bedsBuilt 2012-2021

LeaseholdCouncil Tax: Band BEPC: B (81)

Data freshness:Listing· freshPlanning· 4mo agoOwnership· 1mo agoEPC· 4mo agoRisk· 5mo agoConnectivity· 1mo agoSchools· 1mo agoAmenities· 2mo agoArea· Census 2021

18 Bay House, 584 London Road, Grays, RM20 3BJ

HP Score

/ 100

Mixed

Verdict

5 days ago

Verdict: INVESTIGATE, on a scale of Buy, Investigate, Avoid.
Mixed signals - investigate

Evidence

19 of 21 sources

Sale Estimate

£239,000

£227k - £250kHigh

Estimate

£239k

Range

£227k – £250k

Rent Estimate (pcm)

£1,900

£2k - £2k

Monthly

£1,900

Yield

9.19%

Verdict

Derived from HomePortfolio scores

18 Bay House earns an INVESTIGATE rating with HP Score 72/100. Investment score 70/100 reflects strong fundamentals. Crime intensity is moderate. Walkability is excellent (87/100). Flood risk is not assessed: check the Environment Agency long-term flood map before offering. Tenure is leasehold. Every figure here comes from the live HomePortfolio API; anything it does not publish is left out.

Key SourcesEPC RegisterPortal listingsOfcom Connected NationsOfcom mobile coverageMarket estimates (third-party AVM)Defra strategic noise mapping, England Round 4 (Contains Defra data © Crown copyright and database right 2023-2024, Open Government Licence v3.0)Walk ScoreONS Census 2021Police.ukHM Land Registry company ownershipHM Land Registry covenantsHM Land Registry leasesHM Land Registry Price PaidPlanIt / council planning portalsOverture Maps PlacesOfsted / DfE GIAS

HP Score

72/ 100

Mixed

Investment Score

70/ 100

High

Crime Score

54/ 100

Elevated

Walkability

87/ 100

Excellent

Transit & Bike

Transit 12Bike 65

Walk Score, out of 100

Opportunity

Why this could be an opportunity

Reduced confidence2 independent sourcesLead to verifyListing checked 5 Nov 2026

Fewer independent sources agree, or a component could not be scored.

Check before relying on this score: leasehold with no service charge disclosed - the stress test assumes GBP 0. It ranks after every home whose inputs are verified.

Valuation edge2.5/15
claims [AVM -3.8% (HIGH), sold-comps +8.8%, £/sqft +9.0%] → measured edge +0.50pp of the ask; on later-registered sales an AVM discount carried no edge and a sold-evidence gap at most +0.5pp
Market estimate used (HIGH confidence) · snapshot 13 Oct 2026
- valuation_snapshotsestimate for 10090752580· as of 13 Oct 2026
- property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 12 comps, dispersion 12%· as of 1 Nov 2026
Rental economics33.5/40
gross yield 9.2%; range width penalty ×1.00
- valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 1900/mo (range 1800-1950)· as of 13 Oct 2026· verify before relying on this
Stress margin11.6/30
stressed cash flow +220/mo, +12% of rent (6.75% on a 75% loan; no service charge or ground rent disclosed); passes the stress; leasehold with no service charge disclosed - the stress assumes GBP 0
- underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advert· as of 5 Nov 2026· verify before relying on this
Seller motivationNot scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 32 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge
- portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_date· as of 5 Nov 2026
Risk & liquidity14.7/15
85 sales/12mo in area; valuation range width 10%
- property_intelligencetransactions_12mo

4 of 4 components scored. Ranks on gross yield, the stress margin, risk and disclosed facts. A pricing claim earns only its measured edge: today 0 for the market estimate and at most +0.5pp for sold evidence. The score itself is not yet checked against the outcomes of homes it scored.

Economics

What happens to your money

Price sensitivityScores 80+ up to £198,500

£186,000£285,000

The same scorer re-run at hypothetical asking prices, holding rent, comps and listing history constant. Not a prediction of what the seller would accept.

Your assumptions

Purchase price£248,000

At the asking price

Monthly rent£1,900/mo

Evidenced range £1,800-£1,950

Interest rate5.4%

Loan to value75%

Cash required: £78,160
Net cash flow: £478/mo
Cash on cash: 7.3%
Score at this price: 62

After a 8% void allowance, 15% management and 10% maintenance. Lender coverage (rent ÷ interest): 2.27 - clears the usual 1.25 test. These are your assumptions, not evidence: only the pre-filled rent and price come from the record.

Evidence

Where every number comes from

valuation_snapshotsestimate for 10090752580Valuation edge · as of 13 Oct 2026
property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 12 comps, dispersion 12%Valuation edge · as of 1 Nov 2026
valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 1900/mo (range 1800-1950)Rental economics · as of 13 Oct 2026 · verify before relying on this
underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advertStress margin · as of 5 Nov 2026 · verify before relying on this
portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_dateSeller motivation · as of 5 Nov 2026

Risks

What could kill this deal

Score confidence is reduced
fewer independent sources agree, or a component could not be scored
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
rent estimate 1900/mo (range 1800-1950)
Stress margin needs verification before you rely on it
costs not disclosed by the advert

Plan

Before you offer

1. Get two written rental appraisals from local lettings agents.
The rent estimate rests on area-level evidence, not lettings on this street.
2. Set your walk-away price before viewing - above £198,500 the deal stops scoring well.
Computed by re-running the score at higher prices.
3. Treat the gap to the estimate as unproven - compare recent sold prices on the street yourself before pricing an offer around it.
On later completions, homes listed below their estimate sold at the same share of the asking price as the rest.
4. Commission a full structural survey, not a basic condition report.
The score prices market evidence, not the fabric of the building.

Valuation & Market

Sale Estimate£239,000

Rent Estimate (pcm)£1,900

Gross Yield9.19%

1y Growth+4187.8%

3y Growth+3.2%

5y Growth+2.6%

10y Growth+3.7%

Last Sold Price-

View Market Details

Risk Overview

Flood RiskUnknown
SubsidenceSignificant
RadonLow
MiningLow
LandslideLow
Air QualityLow
NoiseModerate

View Full Risk Report

Planning Activity

Recent Apps

0RM20 3BJ

Approval Rate

-12mo

Development

low

26/01272/CLOPUD
Loft conversion withrear box dormer including 2x roof lights, materials to match existing materials on main roof
Pending
26/01236/ADV
Erection of an internally illuminated fascia sign to replace the existing signage.
Pending
26/01215/PHA
Rear extension with a depth of 6.00 metres from the original rear wall of the property, with a maximum height of 2.81 metres and eaves height of 3.00 metres.
Pending

View Planning Timeline

Ownership

Corporate Ownership31.9%
Overseas OwnershipNo
Lease Term Remaining112 yrs
CovenantsRestrictive
Lease TypeLeasehold
Last Ownership Change-
SourceLand Registry

View Ownership Details

Connectivity

Broadband (Standard)

6 Mbps

Mobile 4G/5G Coverage

EEThreeO2Vodafone

EV Charger

PTAL Rating

View Connectivity Map

Area Profile

Median EarningsLocal authority£36,407

Population Density-

Owner Occupied45%

Age Distribution

0-15 27%16-64 66%65+ 7%

View Area Profile

Schools Nearby

West Thurrock Academy
0.1 mi
Good
Harris Primary Academy Chafford Hundred
0.6 mi
Inspected as Chafford Hundred Primary School (URN 132181) on 13 May 2010
Harris Academy Chafford Hundred
0.6 mi
Outstanding
Harris Primary Academy Mayflower
0.6 mi
-

4 of 14 nearby schools with published figures were oversubscribed in 2026 - demand, not a catchment.

View All Schools

Comparables

View All

Bay House, 584 London Road
-
£188k
-
609 London Road
-
£13.30M
-
609 London Road
-
£10.51M
-
570 London Road
-
£245k
-

Boundary data not available for this property

No registered title polygon, building footprint, or street match for this property yet.

Why: No HMLR INSPIRE / OSM footprint / OS Open USRN match for this UPRN

Source: HM Land Registry INSPIRE / OpenStreetMap / OS Open USRN