5 Holly Lodge, 12 Clarence Road, Harpenden, AL5 4AJ

UPRN:10093189090Flat/Maisonette2 bedsBuilt -

LeaseholdCouncil Tax: Band EEPC: C (77)

Data freshness:Listing· freshPlanning· 2mo agoOwnership· freshEPC· 6mo agoRisk· 5mo agoConnectivity· 1mo agoSchools· 1mo agoAmenities· 2mo agoArea· Census 2021Council Tax· 6mo ago

5 Holly Lodge, 12 Clarence Road, Harpenden, AL5 4AJ

HP Score

/ 100

Strong

Verdict

3 days ago

Verdict: INVESTIGATE, on a scale of Buy, Investigate, Avoid.
Strong fundamentals; flood risk not assessed

Evidence

19 of 21 sources

Sale Estimate

£629,000

£597k - £660kHigh

Estimate

£629k

Range

£597k – £660k

Rent Estimate (pcm)

£2,750

£3k - £3k

Monthly

£2,750

Yield

5.50%

Verdict

Derived from HomePortfolio scores

5 Holly Lodge earns an INVESTIGATE rating with HP Score 78/100. Investment score 64/100 reflects moderate fundamentals. Crime intensity is low. Walkability is limited (69/100). Flood risk is not assessed: check the Environment Agency long-term flood map before offering. Tenure is leasehold. Every figure here comes from the live HomePortfolio API; anything it does not publish is left out.

Key SourcesEPC RegisterPortal listingsOfcom Connected NationsMarket estimates (third-party AVM)HM Land Registry sales matched to addressDefra strategic noise mapping, England Round 4 (Contains Defra data © Crown copyright and database right 2023-2024, Open Government Licence v3.0)Walk ScoreONS Census 2021Police.ukHM Land Registry company ownershipHM Land Registry covenantsHM Land Registry leasesHM Land Registry Price PaidPlanIt / council planning portalsOverture Maps PlacesOfsted / DfE GIAS

HP Score

78/ 100

Strong

Investment Score

64/ 100

Moderate

Crime Score

20/ 100

Moderate

Walkability

69/ 100

Moderate

Transit & Bike

Transit 19Bike 54

Walk Score, out of 100

Opportunity

Why this could be an opportunity

Low confidence0 independent sourcesLead to verifyListing checked 3 Nov 2026

This rests largely on a single source. Treat the score as a prompt to investigate, not a conclusion.

Check before relying on this score: leasehold with no service charge disclosed - the stress test assumes GBP 0. It ranks after every home whose inputs are verified.

Valuation edge0/15
claims [AVM +4.6% (HIGH), sold-comps -18.6%, £/sqft -18.7%] → measured edge +0.00pp of the ask; on later-registered sales an AVM discount carried no edge and a sold-evidence gap at most +0.5pp
Market estimate used (HIGH confidence) · snapshot 12 Oct 2026
- valuation_snapshotsestimate for 10093189090· as of 12 Oct 2026
- property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 10 comps, dispersion 19.3%· as of 7 Nov 2026
Rental economics3.5/40
gross yield 5.5%; range width penalty ×0.87
- valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 2750/mo (range 2550-3000)· as of 12 Oct 2026· verify before relying on this
Stress margin0/30
stressed cash flow -640/mo, -23% of rent (6.75% on a 75% loan; no service charge or ground rent disclosed); fails the stress - earns nothing; leasehold with no service charge disclosed - the stress assumes GBP 0
- underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advert· as of 3 Nov 2026· verify before relying on this
Seller motivationNot scored
context, not scored: 1 price cut(s), 87 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge
- portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_date· as of 3 Nov 2026
Risk & liquidity14.6/15
303 sales/12mo in area; valuation range width 10%
- property_intelligencetransactions_12mo

4 of 4 components scored. Ranks on gross yield, the stress margin, risk and disclosed facts. A pricing claim earns only its measured edge: today 0 for the market estimate and at most +0.5pp for sold evidence. The score itself is not yet checked against the outcomes of homes it scored.

Economics

What happens to your money

Price sensitivity

£450,000£690,000

The same scorer re-run at hypothetical asking prices, holding rent, comps and listing history constant. Not a prediction of what the seller would accept.

Your assumptions

Purchase price£599,950

At the asking price

Monthly rent£2,750/mo

Evidenced range £2,550-£3,000

Interest rate5.4%

Loan to value75%

Cash required: £201,283
Net cash flow: -£121/mo
Cash on cash: -0.7%
Score at this price: 18

After a 8% void allowance, 15% management and 10% maintenance. Lender coverage (rent ÷ interest): 1.36 - clears the usual 1.25 test. These are your assumptions, not evidence: only the pre-filled rent and price come from the record.

Evidence

Where every number comes from

valuation_snapshotsestimate for 10093189090Valuation edge · as of 12 Oct 2026
property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 10 comps, dispersion 19.3%Valuation edge · as of 7 Nov 2026
valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 2750/mo (range 2550-3000)Rental economics · as of 12 Oct 2026 · verify before relying on this
underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advertStress margin · as of 3 Nov 2026 · verify before relying on this
portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_dateSeller motivation · as of 3 Nov 2026

Risks

What could kill this deal

Score confidence is low
largely a single source - treat the number as a prompt, not a conclusion
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
rent estimate 2750/mo (range 2550-3000)
Stress margin needs verification before you rely on it
costs not disclosed by the advert

Plan

Before you offer

1. Get two written rental appraisals from local lettings agents.
The rent estimate rests on area-level evidence, not lettings on this street.
2. Ask the agent why the price was reduced and whether a previous sale fell through.
1 price cut(s) recorded on the listing history.
3. Treat the gap to the estimate as unproven - compare recent sold prices on the street yourself before pricing an offer around it.
On later completions, homes listed below their estimate sold at the same share of the asking price as the rest.
4. Commission a full structural survey, not a basic condition report.
The score prices market evidence, not the fabric of the building.

Valuation & Market

Sale Estimate£629,000

Rent Estimate (pcm)£2,750

Gross Yield5.50%

1y Growth+0.6%

3y Growth-1.1%

5y Growth+2.0%

10y Growth+2.8%

Last Sold Price£621,000 (2025-03-04)

View Market Details

Risk Overview

Flood RiskUnknown
SubsidenceModerate
RadonModerate
MiningLow
LandslideLow
Air QualityLow
NoiseModerate

View Full Risk Report

Planning Activity

Recent Apps

3AL5 4AJ

Approval Rate

100%12mo

Development

low

TP/2026/0506
5 x Oaks to lift to around 3m above ground level, remove deadwood greater than 40mm in diameter. Lift canopies on all Oaks to allow better view of area due to safety concerns & recent damage
Pending
TP/2026/0509
G1 - 5 lime trees at the front of the house to raise the canopy to approx 5 mentres and remove epicormic growth. This work is all general maintenasnce and to keep mtrees healthy and under control
Pending
TP/2026/0477
11A Salisbury Avenue Harpenden Hertfordshire Al5 2Qf T1 - 1 x Overgrown Cotoneaster / Himalayan tree.Pollard to height of first branch break.
Pending

View Planning Timeline

Ownership

Corporate Ownership54.9%
Overseas OwnershipNo
Lease Term Remaining999+ yrs
CovenantsRestrictive
Lease TypeLeasehold
Last Ownership Change2025-03-04
SourceLand Registry

View Ownership Details

Connectivity

Broadband (Standard)

16 Mbps

Mobile 4G/5G Coverage

EV Charger

PTAL Rating

View Connectivity Map

Area Profile

Median EarningsLocal authority£45,543

Population Density4,080 /km²

Owner Occupied85%

Age Distribution

0-15 23%16-64 54%65+ 23%

View Area Profile

Schools Nearby

St Hilda's School
0.3 mi
Inspected by ISI
The King's School
0.4 mi
Inspected by ISI
St George's School
0.4 mi
Area grades2025
Inspected after Ofsted withdrew the single overall grade.
Roundwood Primary School
0.5 mi
Report card2026
Ofsted no longer awards a single overall grade.

8 of 11 nearby schools with published figures were oversubscribed in 2026 - demand, not a catchment.

View All Schools

Comparables

View All

7 Clarence Road
-
£1.84M
-
1A Clarence Road
-
£1.81M
-
Holly Lodge, 12 Clarence Road
-
£621k
-
The Nook, 12A Clarence Road
-
£775k
-

Boundary data not available for this property

No registered title polygon, building footprint, or street match for this property yet.

Why: No HMLR INSPIRE / OSM footprint / OS Open USRN match for this UPRN

Source: HM Land Registry INSPIRE / OpenStreetMap / OS Open USRN