12 Monmouth Castle Drive, Newport, NP20 2QS

UPRN:10093292564Detached House4 bedsBuilt 2012-2021

FreeholdCouncil Tax: Band FEPC: C (79)

Data freshness:Listing· freshPlanning· 4mo agoOwnership· freshEPC· 1mo agoRisk· 2y agoConnectivity· 1mo agoSchools· freshAmenities· 2mo agoArea· Census 2021Council Tax· 1mo ago

12 Monmouth Castle Drive, Newport, NP20 2QS

HP Score

/ 100

Mixed

Verdict

today

Verdict: INVESTIGATE, on a scale of Buy, Investigate, Avoid.
Mixed signals - investigate

Evidence

18 of 21 sources

Sale Estimate

£445,000

£423k - £468kHigh

Estimate

£445k

Range

£423k – £468k

Rent Estimate (pcm)

£1,750

£2k - £2k

Monthly

£1,750

Yield

4.94%

Verdict

Derived from HomePortfolio scores

12 Monmouth Castle Drive earns an INVESTIGATE rating with HP Score 55/100. Investment score 70/100 reflects strong fundamentals. Crime intensity is elevated. Flood risk is not assessed: check the Environment Agency long-term flood map before offering. Tenure is freehold. Every figure here comes from the live HomePortfolio API; anything it does not publish is left out.

Key SourcesEPC RegisterPortal listingsOfcom Connected NationsOfcom mobile coverageMarket estimates (third-party AVM)HM Land Registry sales matched to addressONS Census 2021Police.ukHM Land Registry company ownershipHM Land Registry covenantsHM Land Registry leasesHM Land Registry Price PaidPlanIt / council planning portalsOverture Maps PlacesOfsted / DfE GIAS

HP Score

55/ 100

Mixed

Investment Score

70/ 100

High

Crime Score

95/ 100

Elevated

Walkability

No data

Transit & Bike

No data

Opportunity

Why this could be an opportunity

Low confidence0 independent sourcesListing checked 5 Nov 2026

This rests largely on a single source. Treat the score as a prompt to investigate, not a conclusion.

Valuation edge0/15
claims [AVM +4.5% (HIGH), sold-comps -17.7%, £/sqft -17.6%] → measured edge +0.00pp of the ask; on later-registered sales an AVM discount carried no edge and a sold-evidence gap at most +0.5pp
Market estimate used (HIGH confidence) · snapshot 9 Nov 2026
- valuation_snapshotsestimate for 10093292564· as of 9 Nov 2026
- property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 6 comps, dispersion 13.3%· as of 4 Nov 2026
Rental economics0/40
gross yield 4.9%; range width penalty ×0.86
- valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 1750/mo (range 1600-1900)· as of 9 Nov 2026· verify before relying on this
Stress margin0/30
stressed cash flow -637/mo, -36% of rent (6.75% on a 75% loan; no service charge or ground rent disclosed); fails the stress - earns nothing
- underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advert· as of 5 Nov 2026
Seller motivationNot scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 60 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge
- portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_date· as of 5 Nov 2026
Risk & liquidity14.6/15
489 sales/12mo in area; valuation range width 10%
- property_intelligencetransactions_12mo

4 of 4 components scored. Ranks on gross yield, the stress margin, risk and disclosed facts. A pricing claim earns only its measured edge: today 0 for the market estimate and at most +0.5pp for sold evidence. The score itself is not yet checked against the outcomes of homes it scored.

Economics

What happens to your money

Price sensitivity

£319,000£488,500

The same scorer re-run at hypothetical asking prices, holding rent, comps and listing history constant. Not a prediction of what the seller would accept.

Your assumptions

Purchase price£425,000

At the asking price

Monthly rent£1,750/mo

Evidenced range £1,600-£1,900

Interest rate5.4%

Loan to value75%

Cash required: £140,050
Net cash flow: -£223/mo
Cash on cash: -1.9%
Score at this price: 15

After a 8% void allowance, 15% management and 10% maintenance. Lender coverage (rent ÷ interest): 1.22 - below the usual 1.25 test. These are your assumptions, not evidence: only the pre-filled rent and price come from the record.

Evidence

Where every number comes from

valuation_snapshotsestimate for 10093292564Valuation edge · as of 9 Nov 2026
property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 6 comps, dispersion 13.3%Valuation edge · as of 4 Nov 2026
valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 1750/mo (range 1600-1900)Rental economics · as of 9 Nov 2026 · verify before relying on this
underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advertStress margin · as of 5 Nov 2026
portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_dateSeller motivation · as of 5 Nov 2026

Risks

What could kill this deal

Score confidence is low
largely a single source - treat the number as a prompt, not a conclusion
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
rent estimate 1750/mo (range 1600-1900)
Seller motivation could not be scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 60 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge

Property risk deep-dive →

Plan

Before you offer

1. Get two written rental appraisals from local lettings agents.
The rent estimate rests on area-level evidence, not lettings on this street.
2. Treat the gap to the estimate as unproven - compare recent sold prices on the street yourself before pricing an offer around it.
On later completions, homes listed below their estimate sold at the same share of the asking price as the rest.
3. Commission a full structural survey, not a basic condition report.
The score prices market evidence, not the fabric of the building.

Every step above was generated from a specific gap or flag in the evidence - no generic advice, no invented tasks.

Valuation & Market

Sale Estimate£445,000

Rent Estimate (pcm)£1,750

Gross Yield4.94%

1y Growth-6.0%

3y Growth+4.4%

5y Growth+2.6%

10y Growth+3.5%

Last Sold Price£345,000 (2020-10-09)

View Market Details

Risk Overview

Flood RiskUnknown
SubsidenceLow
RadonModerate
MiningLow
LandslideModerate
Air QualityLow
NoiseWithheld

View Full Risk Report

Planning Activity

Recent Apps

0NP20 2QS

Approval Rate

-12mo

Development

low

26/0846
DEMOLITION OF EXISTING RETAINING WALL, WIDENING OF DRIVEWAY TO CREATE A LARGER PARKING AREA AND CONSTRUCTION OF NEW RETAINING WALL
Pending
26/0837
CONSTRUCTION OF A DROPPED KERB TO CREATE A NEW VEHICULAR ACCESS AND DRIVEWAY
Pending
26/0806
S73 APPLICATION TO VARY CONDITION 1 (APPROVED PLANS) AND CONDITION 3 (BIODIVERSITY ENHANCEMENT SCHEME) OF 25/1070 PROPOSED REAR SINGLE STOREY EXTENSION FORMING A NEW GARDEN ROOM
Pending

View Planning Timeline