9 Blacksmith Way, Lydney, GL15 5TY

UPRN:10093517485End Terrace HouseBeds -Built 2023

FreeholdCouncil Tax: Band BEPC: B (83)

Data freshness:Listing· freshPlanning· 4mo agoOwnership· freshEPC· 6mo agoRisk· 5mo agoCrime· freshConnectivity· 1mo agoSchools· 1mo agoAmenities· 2mo agoArea· Census 2021Council Tax· 6mo ago

HP Score

/ 100

Strong

Verdict

2 days ago

Verdict: INVESTIGATE, on a scale of Buy, Investigate, Avoid.
Strong fundamentals; flood risk not assessed

Evidence

16 of 21 sources

Sale Estimate

£260,000

£247k - £273kHigh

Estimate

£260k

Range

£247k – £273k

Rent Estimate (pcm)

£1,150

£1k - £1k

Monthly

£1,150

Yield

4.25%

Verdict

Derived from HomePortfolio scores

9 Blacksmith Way earns an INVESTIGATE rating with HP Score 77/100. Investment score 66/100 reflects moderate fundamentals. Crime intensity is very low. Walkability is limited (55/100). Flood risk is not assessed: check the Environment Agency long-term flood map before offering. Tenure is freehold. Every figure here comes from the live HomePortfolio API; anything it does not publish is left out.

Key SourcesEPC RegisterPortal listingsMarket estimates (third-party AVM)HM Land Registry sales matched to addressDefra strategic noise mapping, England Round 4 (Contains Defra data © Crown copyright and database right 2023-2024, Open Government Licence v3.0)Walk ScoreONS Census 2021Police.ukHM Land Registry covenantsHM Land Registry Price PaidPlanIt / council planning portalsOverture Maps PlacesOfsted / DfE GIAS

HP Score

77/ 100

Strong

Investment Score

66/ 100

Moderate

Crime Score

6/ 100

Low

Walkability

55/ 100

Moderate

Transit & Bike

Transit 37Bike 55

Walk Score, out of 100

Opportunity

Why this could be an opportunity

Low confidence0 independent sourcesListing checked 10 Nov 2026

This rests largely on a single source. Treat the score as a prompt to investigate, not a conclusion.

Valuation edge-1.6/15
claims [AVM -25.0% (HIGH), sold-comps -30.5%, £/sqft -30.6%] → measured edge -0.33pp of the ask; on later-registered sales an AVM discount carried no edge and a sold-evidence gap at most +0.5pp; asking more than 10% above the estimate (measured -0.33pp)
Market estimate used (HIGH confidence) · snapshot 9 Nov 2026
- valuation_snapshotsestimate for 10093517485· as of 9 Nov 2026
- property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 12 comps, dispersion 13.6%· as of 4 Nov 2026
Rental economics0/40
gross yield 4.2%; range width penalty ×0.85
- valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 1150/mo (range 1050-1250)· as of 9 Nov 2026· verify before relying on this
Stress margin0/30
stressed cash flow -656/mo, -57% of rent (6.75% on a 75% loan; no service charge or ground rent disclosed); fails the stress - earns nothing
- underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advert· as of 10 Nov 2026
Seller motivationNot scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 115 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge
- portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_date· as of 10 Nov 2026
Risk & liquidity14.6/15
228 sales/12mo in area; valuation range width 10%
- property_intelligencetransactions_12mo

4 of 4 components scored. Ranks on gross yield, the stress margin, risk and disclosed facts. A pricing claim earns only its measured edge: today 0 for the market estimate and at most +0.5pp for sold evidence. The score itself is not yet checked against the outcomes of homes it scored.

Economics

What happens to your money

Price sensitivity

£244,000£374,000

The same scorer re-run at hypothetical asking prices, holding rent, comps and listing history constant. Not a prediction of what the seller would accept.

Your assumptions

Purchase price£325,000

At the asking price

Monthly rent£1,150/mo

Evidenced range £1,050-£1,250

Interest rate5.4%

Loan to value75%

Cash required: £105,050
Net cash flow: -£301/mo
Cash on cash: -3.4%
Score at this price: 13

After a 8% void allowance, 15% management and 10% maintenance. Lender coverage (rent ÷ interest): 1.05 - below the usual 1.25 test. These are your assumptions, not evidence: only the pre-filled rent and price come from the record.

Evidence

Where every number comes from

valuation_snapshotsestimate for 10093517485Valuation edge · as of 9 Nov 2026
property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 12 comps, dispersion 13.6%Valuation edge · as of 4 Nov 2026
valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 1150/mo (range 1050-1250)Rental economics · as of 9 Nov 2026 · verify before relying on this
underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advertStress margin · as of 10 Nov 2026
portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_dateSeller motivation · as of 10 Nov 2026

Risks

What could kill this deal

Score confidence is low
largely a single source - treat the number as a prompt, not a conclusion
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
rent estimate 1150/mo (range 1050-1250)
Seller motivation could not be scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 115 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge

Property risk deep-dive →

Plan

Before you offer

1. Get two written rental appraisals from local lettings agents.
The rent estimate rests on area-level evidence, not lettings on this street.
2. Commission a full structural survey, not a basic condition report.
The score prices market evidence, not the fabric of the building.

Every step above was generated from a specific gap or flag in the evidence - no generic advice, no invented tasks.

Valuation & Market

Sale Estimate£260,000

Rent Estimate (pcm)£1,150

Gross Yield4.25%

1y Growth+3.8%

3y Growth-1.8%

5y Growth+0.1%

10y Growth+3.7%

Last Sold Price£260,000 (2023-09-14)

View Market Details

Risk Overview

Flood RiskUnknown
SubsidenceLow
RadonLow
MiningModerate
LandslideModerate
Air QualityLow
NoiseBelow 40 dB

View Full Risk Report

Planning Activity

Recent Apps

0GL15 5TY

Approval Rate

-12mo

Development

low

P1109/26/DISCON
Discharge of condition 05 (bin store and cycle store) of planning permission P1473/24/FUL
Pending
P1103/26/FUL
Installation of 1st floor bathroom window to rear elevation, replacement of existing windows, Erection of timber decking with balustrade to front elevation and Creation of dropped kerb access to new driveway following demolition of existing front dwarf wall. Demolition of front porch. (part-retrospective)
Pending
P1043/26/LD2
Application under section 192 to establish whether the erection of a single storey rear extension with rooflight and demolition of existing conservatory requires planning permission.
Approved

View Planning Timeline

Ownership

Corporate Ownership72.9%
Overseas OwnershipNo
Lease Term Remaining-
CovenantsRestrictive
Lease TypeFreehold
Last Ownership Change2023-09-14
SourceLand Registry

View Ownership Details

Connectivity

Broadband (-)

Mobile 4G/5G Coverage

EV Charger

PTAL Rating

View Connectivity Map

Area Profile

Median EarningsLocal authority£36,589

Population Density296 /km²

Owner Occupied64%

Age Distribution

0-15 14%16-64 60%65+ 26%

View Area Profile

Schools Nearby

Lydney Church of England Community School
0.2 mi
Good
The Dean Academy
0.2 mi
Report card2026
Ofsted no longer awards a single overall grade.
Severnbanks Primary School
0.9 mi
Report card2026
Ofsted no longer awards a single overall grade.
Primrose Hill Church of England Primary Academy
0.9 mi
Report card2025
Ofsted no longer awards a single overall grade.

3 of 12 nearby schools with published figures were oversubscribed in 2026 - demand, not a catchment.

View All Schools

Comparables

View All

2 Blacksmith Way
-
£260k
-
4 Blacksmith Way
-
£260k
-
9 Blacksmith Way
-
£260k
-
7 Blacksmith Way
-
£255k
-

Boundary data not available for this property

No registered title polygon, building footprint, or street match for this property yet.

Why: No HMLR INSPIRE / OSM footprint / OS Open USRN match for this UPRN

Source: HM Land Registry INSPIRE / OpenStreetMap / OS Open USRN