253 Church Road, Old St. Mellons, Cardiff, CF3 6YX

UPRN:10095463155Flat/MaisonetteBeds -Built 2022

LeaseholdCouncil Tax: Band CEPC: B (85)

Data freshness:Listing· freshPrice Paid· freshPlanning· 4mo agoEPC· 6mo agoRisk· 2y agoConnectivity· 1mo agoSchools· 1mo agoAmenities· 1mo agoArea· Census 2021

253 Church Road, Old St. Mellons, Cardiff, CF3 6YX

HP Score

/ 100

Strong

Verdict

yesterday

Verdict: INVESTIGATE, on a scale of Buy, Investigate, Avoid.
Strong fundamentals; flood risk not assessed

Evidence

16 of 21 sources

Sale Estimate

£338,000

£270k - £406kLow

Estimate

£338k

Range

£270k – £406k

Rent Estimate (pcm)

£1,950

£2k - £2k

Monthly

£1,950

Yield

13.00%

Verdict

Derived from HomePortfolio scores

253 Church Road earns an INVESTIGATE rating with HP Score 79/100. Investment score 71/100 reflects strong fundamentals. Crime intensity is low. Flood risk is not assessed: check the Environment Agency long-term flood map before offering. Tenure is leasehold. Every figure here comes from the live HomePortfolio API; anything it does not publish is left out.

Key SourcesEPC RegisterPortal listingsMarket estimates (third-party AVM)HM Land Registry sales matched to addressONS Census 2021Police.ukHM Land Registry company ownershipHM Land Registry covenantsHM Land Registry leasesHM Land Registry Price PaidPlanIt / council planning portalsOverture Maps PlacesOfsted / DfE GIAS

HP Score

79/ 100

Strong

Investment Score

71/ 100

High

Crime Score

29/ 100

Moderate

Walkability

No data

Transit & Bike

No data

Opportunity

Why this could be an opportunity

Low confidence0 independent sourcesLead to verifyListing checked 2 Nov 2026

This rests largely on a single source. Treat the score as a prompt to investigate, not a conclusion.

Check before relying on this score: the estimate sits 47% above the ask; lead to verify: leasehold with no service charge disclosed - the stress test assumes GBP 0. It ranks after every home whose inputs are verified.

Valuation edge0/15
claims [sold-comps -4.0%, £/sqft -4.2%] → measured edge +0.00pp of the ask; on later-registered sales an AVM discount carried no edge and a sold-evidence gap at most +0.5pp; AVM excluded (estimate confidence LOW below scoring floor)
estimate confidence LOW below scoring floor · snapshot 12 Oct 2026
- property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 12 comps, dispersion 4.4%· as of 23 Oct 2026
Rental economics37.7/40
gross yield 13.0%; range width penalty ×0.94; the estimate this rent rides on sits 47% above the ask - check the rent describes the advertised home
- valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 1950/mo (range 1850-2100)· as of 12 Oct 2026· verify before relying on this
- valuation_snapshotssale estimate 47% above the ask on the same snapshot - verify the rent describes this home· as of 12 Oct 2026· verify before relying on this
Stress margin27.9/30
stressed cash flow +544/mo, +28% of rent (6.75% on a 75% loan; no service charge or ground rent disclosed); passes the stress; leasehold with no service charge disclosed - the stress assumes GBP 0
- underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advert· as of 2 Nov 2026· verify before relying on this
Seller motivationNot scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 58 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge
- portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_date· as of 2 Nov 2026
Risk & liquidity9.2/15
404 sales/12mo in area; valuation range width 40%
- property_intelligencetransactions_12mo

4 of 4 components scored. Ranks on gross yield, the stress margin, risk and disclosed facts. A pricing claim earns only its measured edge: today 0 for the market estimate and at most +0.5pp for sold evidence. The score itself is not yet checked against the outcomes of homes it scored.

Economics

What happens to your money

Price sensitivityScores 70+ up to £202,500

£171,000£207,000

The same scorer re-run at hypothetical asking prices, holding rent, comps and listing history constant. Not a prediction of what the seller would accept.

Your assumptions

Purchase price£180,000

At the asking price

Monthly rent£1,950/mo

Evidenced range £1,850-£2,100

Interest rate5.4%

Loan to value75%

Cash required: £56,400
Net cash flow: £742/mo
Cash on cash: 15.8%
Score at this price: 75

After a 8% void allowance, 15% management and 10% maintenance. Lender coverage (rent ÷ interest): 3.21 - clears the usual 1.25 test. These are your assumptions, not evidence: only the pre-filled rent and price come from the record.

Evidence

Where every number comes from

property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 12 comps, dispersion 4.4%Valuation edge · as of 23 Oct 2026
valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 1950/mo (range 1850-2100)Rental economics · as of 12 Oct 2026 · verify before relying on this
valuation_snapshotssale estimate 47% above the ask on the same snapshot - verify the rent describes this homeRental economics · as of 12 Oct 2026 · verify before relying on this
underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advertStress margin · as of 2 Nov 2026 · verify before relying on this
portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_date

Risks

What could kill this deal

Score confidence is low
largely a single source - treat the number as a prompt, not a conclusion
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
rent estimate 1950/mo (range 1850-2100)
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
sale estimate 47% above the ask on the same snapshot - verify the rent describes this home

Plan

Before you offer

1. Get two written rental appraisals from local lettings agents.
The market estimate this rent rides on sits far above the asking price, so the rent may describe a different home.
2. Set your walk-away price before viewing - above £202,500 the deal stops scoring well.
Computed by re-running the score at higher prices.
3. Commission a full structural survey, not a basic condition report.
The score prices market evidence, not the fabric of the building.

Every step above was generated from a specific gap or flag in the evidence - no generic advice, no invented tasks.

Valuation & Market

Sale Estimate£338,000

Rent Estimate (pcm)£1,950

Gross Yield13.00%

1y Growth-39.8%

3y Growth+0.6%

5y Growth+3.0%

10y Growth+5.3%

Last Sold Price£171,995 (2022-12-20)

View Market Details

Risk Overview

Flood RiskUnknown
SubsidenceLow
RadonModerate
MiningLow
LandslideModerate
Air QualityLow
NoiseWithheld

View Full Risk Report

Planning Activity

Recent Apps

0CF3 6YX

Approval Rate

-12mo

Development

low

26/02097/HSE
Proposed side single and double storey extension, including a small rear single storey extension attached.
Pending
26/01878/FUL
Proposed conversion and extensions of existing annex to form a dwelling house & erection of a detached bungalow
Pending
26/01446/HSE
Two storey extension with single storey element to rear
Approved

View Planning Timeline