15 Lucas Close, Balsall Heath, Birmingham, B12 9AJ

UPRN:10096359040End Terrace House3 bedsBuilt -

FreeholdCouncil Tax: Band CEPC: -

Data freshness:Listing· freshPlanning· 4mo agoRisk· 5mo agoConnectivity· 1mo agoSchools· freshAmenities· 2mo agoArea· Census 2021

15 Lucas Close, Balsall Heath, Birmingham, B12 9AJ

HP Score

/ 100

Mixed

Verdict

3 days ago

Verdict: INVESTIGATE, on a scale of Buy, Investigate, Avoid.
Mixed signals - investigate

Evidence

16 of 21 sources

Sale Estimate

£426,000

£404k - £447kHigh

Estimate

£426k

Range

£404k – £447k

Rent Estimate (pcm)

£2,150

£2k - £2k

Monthly

£2,150

Yield

6.62%

Verdict

Derived from HomePortfolio scores

15 Lucas Close earns an INVESTIGATE rating with HP Score 72/100. Investment score 67/100 reflects moderate fundamentals. Crime intensity is low. Flood risk is not assessed: check the Environment Agency long-term flood map before offering. Tenure is freehold. Every figure here comes from the live HomePortfolio API; anything it does not publish is left out.

Key SourcesPortal listingsMarket estimates (third-party AVM)HM Land Registry sales matched to addressDefra strategic noise mapping, England Round 4 (Contains Defra data © Crown copyright and database right 2023-2024, Open Government Licence v3.0)ONS Census 2021Police.ukHM Land Registry company ownershipHM Land Registry covenantsHM Land Registry leasesHM Land Registry Price PaidPlanIt / council planning portalsOverture Maps PlacesOfsted / DfE GIAS

HP Score

72/ 100

Mixed

Investment Score

67/ 100

Moderate

Crime Score

29/ 100

Moderate

Walkability

No data

Transit & Bike

No data

Opportunity

Why this could be an opportunity

Low confidence0 independent sourcesListing checked 4 Nov 2026

This rests largely on a single source. Treat the score as a prompt to investigate, not a conclusion.

Valuation edge0/15
claims [AVM +8.5% (HIGH)] → measured edge +0.00pp of the ask; on later-registered sales an AVM discount carried no edge and a sold-evidence gap at most +0.5pp
Market estimate used (HIGH confidence) · snapshot 12 Oct 2026
- valuation_snapshotsestimate for 10096359040· as of 12 Oct 2026
Rental economics11.9/40
gross yield 6.6%; range width penalty ×0.92
- valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 2150/mo (range 2000-2300)· as of 12 Oct 2026· verify before relying on this
Stress margin0/30
stressed cash flow -195/mo, -9% of rent (6.75% on a 75% loan; no service charge or ground rent disclosed); fails the stress - earns nothing
- underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advert· as of 4 Nov 2026
Seller motivationNot scored
context, not scored: 2 price cut(s), 91 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge
- portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_date· as of 4 Nov 2026
Risk & liquidity14.6/15
137 sales/12mo in area; valuation range width 10%
- property_intelligencetransactions_12mo

4 of 4 components scored. Ranks on gross yield, the stress margin, risk and disclosed facts. A pricing claim earns only its measured edge: today 0 for the market estimate and at most +0.5pp for sold evidence. The score itself is not yet checked against the outcomes of homes it scored.

Economics

What happens to your money

Price sensitivity

£292,500£448,500

The same scorer re-run at hypothetical asking prices, holding rent, comps and listing history constant. Not a prediction of what the seller would accept.

Your assumptions

Purchase price£390,000

At the asking price

Monthly rent£2,150/mo

Evidenced range £2,000-£2,300

Interest rate5.4%

Loan to value75%

Cash required: £127,800
Net cash flow: £172/mo
Cash on cash: 1.6%
Score at this price: 26

After a 8% void allowance, 15% management and 10% maintenance. Lender coverage (rent ÷ interest): 1.63 - clears the usual 1.25 test. These are your assumptions, not evidence: only the pre-filled rent and price come from the record.

Evidence

Where every number comes from

valuation_snapshotsestimate for 10096359040Valuation edge · as of 12 Oct 2026
valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 2150/mo (range 2000-2300)Rental economics · as of 12 Oct 2026 · verify before relying on this
underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advertStress margin · as of 4 Nov 2026
portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_dateSeller motivation · as of 4 Nov 2026
property_intelligencetransactions_12moRisk & liquidity

Sold comparables in depth

Risks

What could kill this deal

Score confidence is low
largely a single source - treat the number as a prompt, not a conclusion
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
rent estimate 2150/mo (range 2000-2300)
Seller motivation could not be scored
context, not scored: 2 price cut(s), 91 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge

Property risk deep-dive →

Plan

Before you offer

1. Get two written rental appraisals from local lettings agents.
The rent estimate rests on area-level evidence, not lettings on this street.
2. Ask the agent why the price was reduced and whether a previous sale fell through.
2 price cut(s) recorded on the listing history.
3. Treat the gap to the estimate as unproven - compare recent sold prices on the street yourself before pricing an offer around it.
On later completions, homes listed below their estimate sold at the same share of the asking price as the rest.
4. Commission a full structural survey, not a basic condition report.
The score prices market evidence, not the fabric of the building.

Valuation & Market

Sale Estimate£426,000

Rent Estimate (pcm)£2,150

Gross Yield6.62%

1y Growth+12.0%

3y Growth+3.4%

5y Growth+5.5%

10y Growth+7.6%

Last Sold Price£399,950 (2025-03-03)

View Market Details

Risk Overview

Flood RiskUnknown
SubsidenceLow
RadonLow
MiningUnknown
LandslideLow
Air QualityLow
NoiseModerate

View Full Risk Report

Planning Activity

Recent Apps

0B12 9AJ

Approval Rate

-12mo

Development

low

2026/05932/PA
Erection of single and two storey rear and single storey front extensions, alterations to roof and erection of single storey detached outbuilding to rear
Pending
2026/05724/PA
Application for a non-material amendment to planning approval 2023/03903/PA for amendments to external cladding and ramp materials, revised baths ramp alignment, omission of the North Baths lift, relocation of louvres, alterations to plant deck areas and associated steelwork, modifications to substation doors, and internal accessibility improvements to the Link Bridge lobby. The proposed changes are required in response to construction, engineering, accessibility, maintenance, fire safety and procurement considerations and do not materially alter the scale, appearance, function or overall nature of the approved development.
Pending
2026/05711/PA
Erection of first floor side and rear extension
Pending

View Planning Timeline

Ownership

Corporate Ownership45.1%
Overseas OwnershipNo
Lease Term Remaining-
CovenantsRestrictive
Lease TypeFreehold
Last Ownership Change2025-03-03
SourceLand Registry

View Ownership Details

Connectivity

Broadband (-)

Mobile 4G/5G Coverage

EV Charger

PTAL Rating

View Connectivity Map

Area Profile

Median EarningsLocal authority£30,180

Population Density5,606 /km²

Owner Occupied39%

Age Distribution

0-15 26%16-64 62%65+ 12%

View Area Profile

Schools Nearby

Joseph Chamberlain Sixth Form College
0.1 mi
-
Heath Mount Primary School
0.1 mi
Report card2026
Ofsted no longer awards a single overall grade.
Lift Percy Shurmer
0.2 mi
OutstandingImproving
Heritage Academy
0.2 mi
Outstanding

2 of 5 nearby schools with published figures were oversubscribed in 2026 - demand, not a catchment.

View All Schools

Comparables

View All

11 Lucas Close
-
£334k
-
9 Lucas Close
-
£400k
-
1 Lucas Close
-
£210k
-
15 Lucas Close
-
£400k
-

Boundary data not available for this property

No registered title polygon, building footprint, or street match for this property yet.

Why: No HMLR INSPIRE / OSM footprint / OS Open USRN match for this UPRN

Source: HM Land Registry INSPIRE / OpenStreetMap / OS Open USRN