Oak Lodge, Thorndon Park, Herongate, Brentwood, CM13 3SA

UPRN:200000526060Detached House3 bedsBuilt -

FreeholdCouncil Tax: -EPC: -

Data freshness:Price Paid· freshPlanning· freshRisk· 5mo agoConnectivity· 1mo agoSchools· 1mo agoAmenities· 1mo agoArea· Census 2021

Oak Lodge, Thorndon Park, Herongate, Brentwood, CM13 3SA

HP Score

/ 100

Mixed

Verdict

yesterday

Verdict: INVESTIGATE, on a scale of Buy, Investigate, Avoid.
Mixed signals - investigate

Evidence

17 of 21 sources

Sale Estimate

£1,383,000

£1.31M - £1.45MHigh

Estimate

£1.38M

Range

£1.31M – £1.45M

Rent Estimate (pcm)

£5,300

£5k - £6k

Monthly

£5,300

Yield

4.56%

Verdict

Derived from HomePortfolio scores

Oak Lodge earns an INVESTIGATE rating with HP Score 52/100. Investment score 53/100 reflects moderate fundamentals. Crime intensity is moderate. Walkability is limited (1/100). Flood risk is not assessed: check the Environment Agency long-term flood map before offering. Tenure is freehold. Every figure here comes from the live HomePortfolio API; anything it does not publish is left out.

Key SourcesPortal listingsOfcom Connected NationsOfcom mobile coverageMarket estimates (third-party AVM)Defra strategic noise mapping, England Round 4 (Contains Defra data © Crown copyright and database right 2023-2024, Open Government Licence v3.0)Walk ScoreONS Census 2021Police.ukHM Land Registry covenantsHM Land Registry leasesHM Land Registry Price PaidPlanIt / council planning portalsOverture Maps PlacesOfsted / DfE GIAS

HP Score

52/ 100

Mixed

Investment Score

53/ 100

Moderate

Crime Score

45/ 100

Elevated

Walkability

1/ 100

Low

Transit & Bike

Transit 34Bike 26

Walk Score, out of 100

Opportunity

Why this could be an opportunity

Low confidence0 independent sourcesListing checked 30 Oct 2026

This rests largely on a single source. Treat the score as a prompt to investigate, not a conclusion.

Valuation edge0/15
claims [AVM -0.9% (HIGH)] → measured edge +0.00pp of the ask; on later-registered sales an AVM discount carried no edge and a sold-evidence gap at most +0.5pp
Market estimate used (HIGH confidence) · snapshot 9 Oct 2026
- valuation_snapshotsestimate for 200000526060· as of 9 Oct 2026
Rental economics0/40
gross yield 4.6%; range width penalty ×0.78
- valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 5300/mo (range 4750-5850)· as of 9 Oct 2026· verify before relying on this
Stress margin0/30
stressed cash flow -2,120/mo, -40% of rent (6.75% on a 75% loan; no service charge or ground rent disclosed); fails the stress - earns nothing
- underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advert· as of 30 Oct 2026
Seller motivationNot scored
context, not scored: 1 price cut(s), 211 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge
- portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_date· as of 30 Oct 2026
Risk & liquidity14.6/15
280 sales/12mo in area; valuation range width 10%
- property_intelligencetransactions_12mo

4 of 4 components scored. Ranks on gross yield, the stress margin, risk and disclosed facts. A pricing claim earns only its measured edge: today 0 for the market estimate and at most +0.5pp for sold evidence. The score itself is not yet checked against the outcomes of homes it scored.

Economics

What happens to your money

Price sensitivity

£1,046,000£1,604,000

The same scorer re-run at hypothetical asking prices, holding rent, comps and listing history constant. Not a prediction of what the seller would accept.

Your assumptions

Purchase price£1,395,000

At the asking price

Monthly rent£5,300/mo

Evidenced range £4,750-£5,850

Interest rate5.4%

Loan to value75%

Cash required: £503,050
Net cash flow: -£1,039/mo
Cash on cash: -2.5%
Score at this price: 15

After a 8% void allowance, 15% management and 10% maintenance. Lender coverage (rent ÷ interest): 1.13 - below the usual 1.25 test. These are your assumptions, not evidence: only the pre-filled rent and price come from the record.

Evidence

Where every number comes from

valuation_snapshotsestimate for 200000526060Valuation edge · as of 9 Oct 2026
valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 5300/mo (range 4750-5850)Rental economics · as of 9 Oct 2026 · verify before relying on this
underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advertStress margin · as of 30 Oct 2026
portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_dateSeller motivation · as of 30 Oct 2026
property_intelligencetransactions_12moRisk & liquidity

Sold comparables in depth

Risks

What could kill this deal

Score confidence is low
largely a single source - treat the number as a prompt, not a conclusion
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
rent estimate 5300/mo (range 4750-5850)
Seller motivation could not be scored
context, not scored: 1 price cut(s), 211 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge

Property risk deep-dive →

Plan

Before you offer

1. Get two written rental appraisals from local lettings agents.
The rent estimate rests on area-level evidence, not lettings on this street.
2. Ask the agent why the price was reduced and whether a previous sale fell through.
1 price cut(s) recorded on the listing history.
3. Commission a full structural survey, not a basic condition report.
The score prices market evidence, not the fabric of the building.

Every step above was generated from a specific gap or flag in the evidence - no generic advice, no invented tasks.

Valuation & Market

Sale Estimate£1,383,000

Rent Estimate (pcm)£5,300

Gross Yield4.56%

1y Growth-

3y Growth+7.6%

5y Growth+2.6%

10y Growth+3.0%

Last Sold Price-

View Market Details

Risk Overview

Flood RiskUnknown
SubsidenceSignificant
RadonLow
MiningUnknown
LandslideLow
Air QualityLow
NoiseBelow 40 dB

View Full Risk Report

Planning Activity

Recent Apps

3CM13 3SA

Approval Rate

66.7%12mo

Development

low

26/00550/LBC
Internal alterations and refurbishment. Including secondary glazing and new flue outlet and infilling of redundant
Pending
26/00751/FUL
Retention of portakabin to provide staff welfare facilities (retrospective).
Pending
26/00724/TPO
T1 - Sweet Chestnut - dead wood and reduce the remainder of the crown by 3m TPO Number: TPO4/1948
Approved

View Planning Timeline

Ownership

Corporate Ownership45.6%
Overseas OwnershipNo
Lease Term Remaining-
CovenantsRestrictive
Lease TypeFreehold
Last Ownership Change-
SourceLand Registry

View Ownership Details

Connectivity

Broadband (Standard)

3 Mbps

Mobile 4G/5G Coverage

EEThreeO2Vodafone

EV Charger

PTAL Rating

View Connectivity Map

Area Profile

Median EarningsLocal authority£39,864

Population Density92 /km²

Owner Occupied74%

Age Distribution

0-15 19%16-64 60%65+ 21%

View Area Profile

Schools Nearby

Ingrave Johnstone Church of England Voluntary Aided Primary School
0.8 mi
Good
Warley Primary School
1.2 mi
Good
Endeavour Co-Operative Academy
1.3 mi
Good
Hogarth Primary School
1.3 mi
Area grades2025
Inspected after Ofsted withdrew the single overall grade.

3 of 11 nearby schools with published figures were oversubscribed in 2026 - demand, not a catchment.

View All Schools

Comparables

View All

Orchard Cottage Thorndon Park
-
£1.43M
-
Garden Cottage Thorndon Park
-
£1.70M
-
Hatchhouse Thorndon Park
-
£2.80M
-
Garden Cottage Thorndon Park
-
£390k
-

Boundary data not available for this property

No registered title polygon, building footprint, or street match for this property yet.

Why: No HMLR INSPIRE / OSM footprint / OS Open USRN match for this UPRN

Source: HM Land Registry INSPIRE / OpenStreetMap / OS Open USRN