Cefn Coed, Cwm Fagor Road, Devauden, Chepstow, NP16 6NX

UPRN:200000953673Detached House5 bedsBuilt 1967-1975

FreeholdCouncil Tax: -EPC: E (41)

Data freshness:Listing· freshPrice Paid· freshPlanning· 4mo agoEPC· 6mo agoRisk· 2y agoConnectivity· 1mo agoSchools· 1mo agoAmenities· 1mo agoArea· Census 2021

Cefn Coed, Cwm Fagor Road, Devauden, Chepstow, NP16 6NX

HP Score

/ 100

Mixed

Verdict

yesterday

Verdict: INVESTIGATE, on a scale of Buy, Investigate, Avoid.
Mixed signals - investigate

Evidence

17 of 21 sources

Sale Estimate

£637,000

£574k - £701kMedium

Estimate

£637k

Range

£574k – £701k

Rent Estimate (pcm)

£2,250

£2k - £3k

Monthly

£2,250

Yield

6.00%

Verdict

Derived from HomePortfolio scores

Cefn Coed earns an INVESTIGATE rating with HP Score 67/100. Investment score 60/100 reflects moderate fundamentals. Crime intensity is very low. Flood risk is not assessed: check the Environment Agency long-term flood map before offering. Tenure is freehold. Every figure here comes from the live HomePortfolio API; anything it does not publish is left out.

Key SourcesEPC RegisterPortal listingsOfcom Connected NationsOfcom mobile coverageMarket estimates (third-party AVM)HM Land Registry sales matched to addressONS Census 2021Police.ukHM Land Registry company ownershipHM Land Registry covenantsHM Land Registry Price PaidPlanIt / council planning portalsOverture Maps PlacesOfsted / DfE GIAS

HP Score

67/ 100

Mixed

Investment Score

60/ 100

Moderate

Crime Score

10/ 100

Low

Walkability

No data

Transit & Bike

No data

Opportunity

Why this could be an opportunity

Low confidence1 independent sourceLead to verifyListing checked 4 Nov 2026

This rests largely on a single source. Treat the score as a prompt to investigate, not a conclusion.

Check before relying on this score: the estimate sits 29% above the ask. It ranks after every home whose inputs are verified.

Valuation edge2.5/15
claims [AVM +29.4% (MEDIUM), sold-comps +41.3%, £/sqft +41.3%] → measured edge +0.50pp of the ask; on later-registered sales an AVM discount carried no edge and a sold-evidence gap at most +0.5pp
Market estimate used (MEDIUM confidence) · snapshot 13 Oct 2026
- valuation_snapshotsestimate for 200000953673· as of 13 Oct 2026
- property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 12 comps, dispersion 17.2%· as of 3 Nov 2026
Rental economics6/40
gross yield 6.0%; range width penalty ×0.76; the estimate this rent rides on sits 29% above the ask - check the rent describes the advertised home
- valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 2250/mo (range 2000-2500)· as of 13 Oct 2026· verify before relying on this
- valuation_snapshotssale estimate 29% above the ask on the same snapshot - verify the rent describes this home· as of 13 Oct 2026· verify before relying on this
Stress margin0/30
stressed cash flow -375/mo, -17% of rent (6.75% on a 75% loan; no service charge or ground rent disclosed); fails the stress - earns nothing
- underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advert· as of 4 Nov 2026
Seller motivationNot scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 171 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge
- portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_date· as of 4 Nov 2026
Risk & liquidity12.9/15
226 sales/12mo in area; valuation range width 20%
- property_intelligencetransactions_12mo

4 of 4 components scored. Ranks on gross yield, the stress margin, risk and disclosed facts. A pricing claim earns only its measured edge: today 0 for the market estimate and at most +0.5pp for sold evidence. The score itself is not yet checked against the outcomes of homes it scored.

Economics

What happens to your money

Price sensitivity

£337,500£517,500

The same scorer re-run at hypothetical asking prices, holding rent, comps and listing history constant. Not a prediction of what the seller would accept.

Your assumptions

Purchase price£450,000

At the asking price

Monthly rent£2,250/mo

Evidenced range £2,000-£2,500

Interest rate5.4%

Loan to value75%

Cash required: £148,800
Net cash flow: £39/mo
Cash on cash: 0.3%
Score at this price: 21

After a 8% void allowance, 15% management and 10% maintenance. Lender coverage (rent ÷ interest): 1.48 - clears the usual 1.25 test. These are your assumptions, not evidence: only the pre-filled rent and price come from the record.

Evidence

Where every number comes from

valuation_snapshotsestimate for 200000953673Valuation edge · as of 13 Oct 2026
property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 12 comps, dispersion 17.2%Valuation edge · as of 3 Nov 2026
valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 2250/mo (range 2000-2500)Rental economics · as of 13 Oct 2026 · verify before relying on this
valuation_snapshotssale estimate 29% above the ask on the same snapshot - verify the rent describes this homeRental economics · as of 13 Oct 2026 · verify before relying on this
underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advert

Risks

What could kill this deal

Score confidence is low
largely a single source - treat the number as a prompt, not a conclusion
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
rent estimate 2250/mo (range 2000-2500)
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
sale estimate 29% above the ask on the same snapshot - verify the rent describes this home

Plan

Before you offer

1. Get two written rental appraisals from local lettings agents.
The market estimate this rent rides on sits far above the asking price, so the rent may describe a different home.
2. Treat the gap to the estimate as unproven - compare recent sold prices on the street yourself before pricing an offer around it.
On later completions, homes listed below their estimate sold at the same share of the asking price as the rest.
3. Commission a full structural survey, not a basic condition report.
The score prices market evidence, not the fabric of the building.

Every step above was generated from a specific gap or flag in the evidence - no generic advice, no invented tasks.

Valuation & Market

Sale Estimate£637,000

Rent Estimate (pcm)£2,250

Gross Yield6.00%

1y Growth-

3y Growth+0.1%

5y Growth+2.0%

10y Growth+4.0%

Last Sold Price£390,000 (2016-06-03)

View Market Details

Risk Overview

Flood RiskUnknown
SubsidenceLow
RadonModerate
MiningLow
LandslideModerate
Air QualityLow
NoiseWithheld

View Full Risk Report

Planning Activity

Recent Apps

0NP16 6NX

Approval Rate

-12mo

Development

low

DM/2026/01121
Previous Planning application DM/2026/00109 Further enlargement of approved rear single storey extension to extend the full width of the house.
Approved
DM/2026/01108
Proposed NMA to Planning Approval DM/2024/01023 to include internal alterations Existing stairs to remain in place Minor expansion of the downstairs WC to accomodate a shower to the room. Retain the large wood and glass petition in situ Upstairs : Changing the en suites to the two bedrooms on the right-hand side of the building instead of the left. The two rooms on the left remain unchanged. The master bedroom has a door added along the corridor, shortening the corridor slightly. The bedroom then includes the doorway to the existing stairs, one to a walk-in wardrobe and one to an en suite. Leaving the existing kitchenette and WC room unchanged, apart from adding a shower to the WC.
Pending
DM/2026/00849
Front and Rear Extensions and alterations to existing property.
Pending

View Planning Timeline