12 Birch Wood Drive, Tonyrefail, Porth, CF39 8JD

UPRN:200003777347Detached House4 bedsBuilt -

FreeholdCouncil Tax: -EPC: -

Data freshness:Listing· freshPlanning· 4mo agoOwnership· freshRisk· 2y agoCrime· freshConnectivity· 1mo agoSchools· 1mo agoAmenities· 2mo agoArea· Census 2021

12 Birch Wood Drive, Tonyrefail, Porth, CF39 8JD

HP Score

/ 100

Strong

Verdict

today

Verdict: INVESTIGATE, on a scale of Buy, Investigate, Avoid.
Strong fundamentals; flood risk not assessed

Evidence

15 of 21 sources

Sale Estimate

£347,000

£329k - £364kHigh

Estimate

£347k

Range

£329k – £364k

Rent Estimate (pcm)

£1,150

£1k - £1k

Monthly

£1,150

Yield

4.76%

Verdict

Derived from HomePortfolio scores

12 Birch Wood Drive earns an INVESTIGATE rating with HP Score 83/100. Investment score 64/100 reflects moderate fundamentals. Crime intensity is very low. Flood risk is not assessed: check the Environment Agency long-term flood map before offering. Tenure is freehold. Every figure here comes from the live HomePortfolio API; anything it does not publish is left out.

Key SourcesPortal listingsOfcom Connected NationsOfcom mobile coverageMarket estimates (third-party AVM)HM Land Registry sales matched to addressONS Census 2021Police.ukHM Land Registry covenantsHM Land Registry Price PaidPlanIt / council planning portalsOverture Maps PlacesOfsted / DfE GIAS

HP Score

83/ 100

Strong

Investment Score

64/ 100

Moderate

Crime Score

9/ 100

Low

Walkability

No data

Transit & Bike

No data

Opportunity

Why this could be an opportunity

Low confidence0 independent sourcesLead to verifyListing checked 9 Nov 2026

This rests largely on a single source. Treat the score as a prompt to investigate, not a conclusion.

Check before relying on this score: the estimate sits 16% above the ask. It ranks after every home whose inputs are verified.

Valuation edge0/15
claims [AVM +16.4% (HIGH)] → measured edge +0.00pp of the ask; on later-registered sales an AVM discount carried no edge and a sold-evidence gap at most +0.5pp
Market estimate used (HIGH confidence) · snapshot 14 Nov 2026
- valuation_snapshotsestimate for 200003777347· as of 14 Nov 2026
Rental economics0/40
gross yield 4.8%; range width penalty ×0.77; the estimate this rent rides on sits 16% above the ask - check the rent describes the advertised home
- valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 1150/mo (range 1000-1250)· as of 14 Nov 2026· verify before relying on this
- valuation_snapshotssale estimate 16% above the ask on the same snapshot - verify the rent describes this home· as of 14 Nov 2026· verify before relying on this
Stress margin0/30
stressed cash flow -508/mo, -44% of rent (6.75% on a 75% loan; no service charge or ground rent disclosed); fails the stress - earns nothing
- underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advert· as of 9 Nov 2026
Seller motivationNot scored
context, not scored: 2 price cut(s), 145 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge
- portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_date· as of 9 Nov 2026
Risk & liquidity14.6/15
285 sales/12mo in area; valuation range width 10%
- property_intelligencetransactions_12mo

4 of 4 components scored. Ranks on gross yield, the stress margin, risk and disclosed facts. A pricing claim earns only its measured edge: today 0 for the market estimate and at most +0.5pp for sold evidence. The score itself is not yet checked against the outcomes of homes it scored.

Economics

What happens to your money

Price sensitivity

£217,500£333,500

The same scorer re-run at hypothetical asking prices, holding rent, comps and listing history constant. Not a prediction of what the seller would accept.

Your assumptions

Purchase price£289,995

At the asking price

Monthly rent£1,150/mo

Evidenced range £1,000-£1,250

Interest rate5.4%

Loan to value75%

Cash required: £92,799
Net cash flow: -£183/mo
Cash on cash: -2.4%
Score at this price: 15

After a 8% void allowance, 15% management and 10% maintenance. Lender coverage (rent ÷ interest): 1.17 - below the usual 1.25 test. These are your assumptions, not evidence: only the pre-filled rent and price come from the record.

Evidence

Where every number comes from

valuation_snapshotsestimate for 200003777347Valuation edge · as of 14 Nov 2026
valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 1150/mo (range 1000-1250)Rental economics · as of 14 Nov 2026 · verify before relying on this
valuation_snapshotssale estimate 16% above the ask on the same snapshot - verify the rent describes this homeRental economics · as of 14 Nov 2026 · verify before relying on this
underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advertStress margin · as of 9 Nov 2026
portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_dateSeller motivation · as of 9 Nov 2026

Risks

What could kill this deal

Score confidence is low
largely a single source - treat the number as a prompt, not a conclusion
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
rent estimate 1150/mo (range 1000-1250)
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
sale estimate 16% above the ask on the same snapshot - verify the rent describes this home

Plan

Before you offer

1. Get two written rental appraisals from local lettings agents.
The market estimate this rent rides on sits far above the asking price, so the rent may describe a different home.
2. Ask the agent why the price was reduced and whether a previous sale fell through.
2 price cut(s) recorded on the listing history.
3. Treat the gap to the estimate as unproven - compare recent sold prices on the street yourself before pricing an offer around it.
On later completions, homes listed below their estimate sold at the same share of the asking price as the rest.
4. Commission a full structural survey, not a basic condition report.
The score prices market evidence, not the fabric of the building.

Valuation & Market

Sale Estimate£347,000

Rent Estimate (pcm)£1,150

Gross Yield4.76%

1y Growth+24.3%

3y Growth+2.5%

5y Growth+4.3%

10y Growth+5.0%

Last Sold Price£96,000 (2002-07-05)

View Market Details

Risk Overview

Flood RiskUnknown
SubsidenceLow
RadonModerate
MiningUnknown
LandslideSignificant
Air QualityLow
NoiseWithheld

View Full Risk Report

Planning Activity

Recent Apps

0CF39 8JD

Approval Rate

-12mo

Development

low

26/0730/NMA
Application for a Non-Material Amendment to planning permission 15/0474/16 to amend the approved drawings to include the addition of battery storage units to individual plots, polycarbonate protective canopies and screening on south facing battery storage locations within the development and removal of the battery energy storage system previously shown at the hammerhead of road 15.
Approved
26/0234/CPRO
Proposed Loft Conversion with Rear Dormer
Decided
26/0101/CPRO
Internal works relating to reallocation of space from interior sports hall to nursery, as well as infilling of one redundant fire exit
Decided

View Planning Timeline