15 Carlton Street, Lincoln, LN1 3HX

UPRN:235029688Mid Terrace House2 bedsBuilt 1900-1929

Tenure: -Council Tax: Band AEPC: D (65)

Data freshness:Listing· freshPrice Paid· freshPlanning· 4mo agoEPC· 6mo agoRisk· 5mo agoConnectivity· 1mo agoSchools· 1mo agoAmenities· 1mo agoArea· Census 2021

HP Score

/ 100

Mixed

Verdict

yesterday

Verdict: INVESTIGATE, on a scale of Buy, Investigate, Avoid.
Mixed signals - investigate

Evidence

18 of 21 sources

Sale Estimate

£159,000

£143k - £175kMedium

Estimate

£159k

Range

£143k – £175k

Rent Estimate (pcm)

£500

£450 - £550

Monthly

£500

Yield

4.00%

Verdict

Derived from HomePortfolio scores

15 Carlton Street earns an INVESTIGATE rating with HP Score 68/100. Investment score 56/100 reflects moderate fundamentals. Crime intensity is moderate. Walkability is excellent (86/100). Flood risk is not assessed: check the Environment Agency long-term flood map before offering. Every figure here comes from the live HomePortfolio API; anything it does not publish is left out.

Key SourcesEPC RegisterPortal listingsOfcom Connected NationsOfcom mobile coverageMarket estimates (third-party AVM)Defra strategic noise mapping, England Round 4 (Contains Defra data © Crown copyright and database right 2023-2024, Open Government Licence v3.0)Walk ScoreONS Census 2021Police.ukHM Land Registry company ownershipHM Land Registry covenantsHM Land Registry Price PaidPlanIt / council planning portalsOverture Maps PlacesOfsted / DfE GIAS

HP Score

68/ 100

Mixed

Investment Score

56/ 100

Moderate

Crime Score

58/ 100

Elevated

Walkability

86/ 100

Excellent

Transit & Bike

Transit 27Bike 61

Walk Score, out of 100

Opportunity

Why this could be an opportunity

Low confidence1 independent sourceListing checked 2 Nov 2026

This rests largely on a single source. Treat the score as a prompt to investigate, not a conclusion.

Valuation edge2.5/15
claims [AVM +5.7% (MEDIUM), sold-comps +14.3%, £/sqft +14.5%] → measured edge +0.50pp of the ask; on later-registered sales an AVM discount carried no edge and a sold-evidence gap at most +0.5pp
Market estimate used (MEDIUM confidence) · snapshot 12 Oct 2026
- valuation_snapshotsestimate for 235029688· as of 12 Oct 2026
- property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 11 comps, dispersion 17.5%· as of 28 Oct 2026
Rental economics0/40
gross yield 4.0%; range width penalty ×0.80
- valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 500/mo (range 450-550)· as of 12 Oct 2026· verify before relying on this
Stress margin0/30
stressed cash flow -395/mo, -79% of rent (6.75% on a 75% loan; no service charge or ground rent disclosed); fails the stress - earns nothing
- underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advert· as of 2 Nov 2026
Seller motivationNot scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 28 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge
- portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_date· as of 2 Nov 2026
Risk & liquidity12.8/15
365 sales/12mo in area; valuation range width 20%
- property_intelligencetransactions_12mo

4 of 4 components scored. Ranks on gross yield, the stress margin, risk and disclosed facts. A pricing claim earns only its measured edge: today 0 for the market estimate and at most +0.5pp for sold evidence. The score itself is not yet checked against the outcomes of homes it scored.

Economics

What happens to your money

Price sensitivity

£112,500£172,500

The same scorer re-run at hypothetical asking prices, holding rent, comps and listing history constant. Not a prediction of what the seller would accept.

Your assumptions

Purchase price£150,000

At the asking price

Monthly rent£500/mo

Evidenced range £450-£550

Interest rate5.4%

Loan to value75%

Cash required: £46,800
Net cash flow: -£160/mo
Cash on cash: -4.1%
Score at this price: 15

After a 8% void allowance, 15% management and 10% maintenance. Lender coverage (rent ÷ interest): 0.99 - below the usual 1.25 test. These are your assumptions, not evidence: only the pre-filled rent and price come from the record.

Evidence

Where every number comes from

valuation_snapshotsestimate for 235029688Valuation edge · as of 12 Oct 2026
property_comparablessold-evidence family (implied value + £/sqft): 11 comps, dispersion 17.5%Valuation edge · as of 28 Oct 2026
valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 500/mo (range 450-550)Rental economics · as of 12 Oct 2026 · verify before relying on this
underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advertStress margin · as of 2 Nov 2026
portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_dateSeller motivation · as of 2 Nov 2026

Risks

What could kill this deal

Score confidence is low
largely a single source - treat the number as a prompt, not a conclusion
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
rent estimate 500/mo (range 450-550)
Seller motivation could not be scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 28 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge

Property risk deep-dive →

Plan

Before you offer

1. Get two written rental appraisals from local lettings agents.
The rent estimate rests on area-level evidence, not lettings on this street.
2. Treat the gap to the estimate as unproven - compare recent sold prices on the street yourself before pricing an offer around it.
On later completions, homes listed below their estimate sold at the same share of the asking price as the rest.
3. Commission a full structural survey, not a basic condition report.
The score prices market evidence, not the fabric of the building.

Every step above was generated from a specific gap or flag in the evidence - no generic advice, no invented tasks.

Valuation & Market

Sale Estimate£159,000

Rent Estimate (pcm)£500

Gross Yield4.00%

1y Growth-

3y Growth-1.7%

5y Growth-0.6%

10y Growth+3.3%

Last Sold Price-

View Market Details

Risk Overview

Flood RiskUnknown
SubsidenceModerate
RadonModerate
MiningSignificant
LandslideLow
Air QualityLow
NoiseLow

View Full Risk Report

Planning Activity

Recent Apps

0LN1 3HX

Approval Rate

-12mo

Development

low

2026/0663/FUL
Change of use from commercial antiques centre (use class E) to two self-contained residential properties (use class C3).
Pending
2026/0664/C4
Change of use from Existing HMO (Class C4) to flexible use between HMO (Class C4) and Dwelling (Class C3).
Pending
2026/0647/HOU
Extension and alterations to existing bay window to facilitate the formation of a first-floor balcony and installation of bifold doors.
Pending

View Planning Timeline

Ownership

Corporate Ownership75.1%
Overseas OwnershipNo
Lease Term Remaining-
CovenantsRestrictive
Lease Type-
Last Ownership Change-
SourceLand Registry

View Ownership Details

Connectivity

Broadband (Standard)

8 Mbps

Mobile 4G/5G Coverage

EEThreeO2Vodafone

EV Charger

PTAL Rating

View Connectivity Map

Area Profile

Median EarningsLocal authority£29,824

Population Density6,870 /km²

Owner Occupied38%

Age Distribution

0-15 10%16-64 75%65+ 15%

View Area Profile

Schools Nearby

Mount Street Academy
0.1 mi
Area grades2024
Inspected after Ofsted withdrew the single overall grade.
Westgate Academy
0.3 mi
Report card2026
Ofsted no longer awards a single overall grade.
Lincoln Bishop University
0.4 mi
-
The St Faith and St Martin Church of England Junior School, Lincoln
0.4 mi
Good

1 of 6 nearby schools with published figures were oversubscribed in 2026 - demand, not a catchment.

View All Schools

Comparables

View All

13 Carlton Street
-
£158k
-
10 Carlton Street
-
£126k
-
9 Carlton Street
-
£163k
-
13 Carlton Street
-
£148k
-

Boundary data not available for this property

No registered title polygon, building footprint, or street match for this property yet.

Why: No HMLR INSPIRE / OSM footprint / OS Open USRN match for this UPRN

Source: HM Land Registry INSPIRE / OpenStreetMap / OS Open USRN