Osborne Villa, Southend Terrace, Pontlottyn, Bargoed, CF81 9RL

UPRN:43001043Detached House3 bedsBuilt 1900-1929

FreeholdCouncil Tax: Band DEPC: E (51)

Data freshness:Listing· freshPrice Paid· freshPlanning· 3mo agoEPC· 6mo agoRisk· 2y agoConnectivity· 1mo agoSchools· 4mo agoAmenities· 1mo agoArea· Census 2021Council Tax· 4mo ago

Osborne Villa, Southend Terrace, Pontlottyn, Bargoed, CF81 9RL

HP Score

/ 100

Mixed

Verdict

2 days ago

Verdict: INVESTIGATE, on a scale of Buy, Investigate, Avoid.
Mixed signals - investigate

Evidence

17 of 21 sources

Sale Estimate

£244,000

£231k - £256kHigh

Estimate

£244k

Range

£231k – £256k

Rent Estimate (pcm)

£1,100

£1k - £1k

Monthly

£1,100

Yield

5.39%

Verdict

Derived from HomePortfolio scores

Osborne Villa earns an INVESTIGATE rating with HP Score 68/100. Investment score 69/100 reflects moderate fundamentals. Crime intensity is moderate. Flood risk is not assessed: check the Environment Agency long-term flood map before offering. Tenure is freehold. Every figure here comes from the live HomePortfolio API; anything it does not publish is left out.

Key SourcesEPC RegisterPortal listingsOfcom Connected NationsOfcom mobile coverageMarket estimates (third-party AVM)HM Land Registry sales matched to addressONS Census 2021Police.ukHM Land Registry company ownershipHM Land Registry covenantsHM Land Registry Price PaidPlanIt / council planning portalsOverture Maps PlacesOfsted / DfE GIAS

HP Score

68/ 100

Mixed

Investment Score

69/ 100

Moderate

Crime Score

45/ 100

Elevated

Walkability

No data

Transit & Bike

No data

Opportunity

Why this could be an opportunity

Low confidence0 independent sourcesListing checked 2 Nov 2026

This rests largely on a single source. Treat the score as a prompt to investigate, not a conclusion.

Valuation edge0/15
claims [AVM -0.4% (HIGH)] → measured edge +0.00pp of the ask; on later-registered sales an AVM discount carried no edge and a sold-evidence gap at most +0.5pp
Market estimate used (HIGH confidence) · snapshot 10 Oct 2026
- valuation_snapshotsestimate for 43001043· as of 10 Oct 2026
Rental economics2.9/40
gross yield 5.4%; range width penalty ×0.93
- valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 1100/mo (range 1050-1200)· as of 10 Oct 2026· verify before relying on this
Stress margin0/30
stressed cash flow -355/mo, -32% of rent (6.75% on a 75% loan; no service charge or ground rent disclosed); fails the stress - earns nothing
- underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advert· as of 2 Nov 2026
Seller motivationNot scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 145 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge
- portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_date· as of 2 Nov 2026
Risk & liquidity14.6/15
142 sales/12mo in area; valuation range width 10%
- property_intelligencetransactions_12mo

4 of 4 components scored. Ranks on gross yield, the stress margin, risk and disclosed facts. A pricing claim earns only its measured edge: today 0 for the market estimate and at most +0.5pp for sold evidence. The score itself is not yet checked against the outcomes of homes it scored.

Economics

What happens to your money

Price sensitivity

£184,000£282,000

The same scorer re-run at hypothetical asking prices, holding rent, comps and listing history constant. Not a prediction of what the seller would accept.

Your assumptions

Purchase price£245,000

At the asking price

Monthly rent£1,100/mo

Evidenced range £1,050-£1,200

Interest rate5.4%

Loan to value75%

Cash required: £77,200
Net cash flow: -£65/mo
Cash on cash: -1.0%
Score at this price: 18

After a 8% void allowance, 15% management and 10% maintenance. Lender coverage (rent ÷ interest): 1.33 - clears the usual 1.25 test. These are your assumptions, not evidence: only the pre-filled rent and price come from the record.

Evidence

Where every number comes from

valuation_snapshotsestimate for 43001043Valuation edge · as of 10 Oct 2026
valuation_snapshotsrent estimate 1100/mo (range 1050-1200)Rental economics · as of 10 Oct 2026 · verify before relying on this
underwriting_assumptionscosts not disclosed by the advertStress margin · as of 2 Nov 2026
portal_listingsprice_changes + first_published_dateSeller motivation · as of 2 Nov 2026
property_intelligencetransactions_12moRisk & liquidity

Sold comparables in depth

Risks

What could kill this deal

Score confidence is low
largely a single source - treat the number as a prompt, not a conclusion
Rental economics needs verification before you rely on it
rent estimate 1100/mo (range 1050-1200)
Seller motivation could not be scored
context, not scored: 0 price cut(s), 145 days on market; homes with a cut sold 0.2-0.3pp further below the cut ask, which is not an edge

Property risk deep-dive →

Plan

Before you offer

1. Get two written rental appraisals from local lettings agents.
The rent estimate rests on area-level evidence, not lettings on this street.
2. Commission a full structural survey, not a basic condition report.
The score prices market evidence, not the fabric of the building.

Every step above was generated from a specific gap or flag in the evidence - no generic advice, no invented tasks.

Valuation & Market

Sale Estimate£244,000

Rent Estimate (pcm)£1,100

Gross Yield5.39%

1y Growth+3.6%

3y Growth+2.1%

5y Growth+4.7%

10y Growth+5.8%

Last Sold Price£225,000 (2023-06-15)

View Market Details

Risk Overview

Flood RiskUnknown
SubsidenceLow
RadonModerate
MiningLow
LandslideSignificant
Air QualityLow
NoiseWithheld

View Full Risk Report

Planning Activity

Recent Apps

0CF81 9RL

Approval Rate

-12mo

Development

low

26/0320/OUT
Erect 2 No detached 4 bed houses in the rear garden and associated works with all matters reserved
Rejected
26/0180/FULL
Erect 2 No. semi-detached properties and associated works
Pending
25/0621/FULL
Split an existing 4-bedroom dwelling to form a new 4-bedroom dwelling and a 2- bedroom dormer bungalow
Pending

View Planning Timeline